|
Post by chesternz on Jan 21, 2023 5:02:03 GMT -5
And here we see the three modes of a Christchurch summer - easterly, nor'westerly and the southerly change. Notice how the temp spikes around 5 PM with the NW change. I'm surprised they even broke 25 C in the afternoon with that icy easterly howling.
|
|
|
Post by rozenn on Jan 21, 2023 9:24:44 GMT -5
Neat snowfall in parts of Alsace and Lorraine last night, up to 40 cm locally. Still waiting for something significant here this winter. Something that's off the radar for most on here... Noice! The map lacks a scale tho.
|
|
|
Post by rozenn on Jan 21, 2023 11:27:57 GMT -5
Wind rose up until the 20th. SW crap ad nauseam
|
|
|
Post by Benfxmth on Jan 21, 2023 14:26:01 GMT -5
^^The glorious southwesterlies (the absolute best wind direction) and northwesterlies are the dominant directions this month so far, as opposed to fall's and Dickcember's northeatshiterlies:
|
|
|
Post by Steelernation on Jan 22, 2023 23:11:49 GMT -5
Abysmal pattern here lately. Past several days have all been 30s/10s and dry. Almost bad as it gets for winter weather here, stable, snowless, unpleasant, and not even interestingly cold.
More of the same shit this week with dry 30s every day before finally it looks like an interesting cold snap next Sunday with highs in the teens. No end in sight for the cold though, rare to get such a stable cold spell here. Pretty shit too.
|
|
|
Post by greysrigging on Jan 23, 2023 0:28:26 GMT -5
Wet Week ahead for Australia As Tropics Awaken ( source: Weatherzone ) Rain and thunderstorms will affect large areas of Australia this week as increasing tropical moisture feeds into several low pressure troughs across the country. The map below shows how much accumulated rain one computer model is predicting across Australia this week. Based on this model’s forecast, we are likely to see rain in part of every state and territory, and heavy falls are possible in northern areas of the NT and WA. While there is some uncertainty between forecast models regarding exactly where and how much rain will fall, there is good agreement that Australia will see widespread and locally heavy rain over the course of this week. The rainfall being predicted over eastern and southeastern Australia this week will come from daily shower and thunderstorm activity. This means that some places could see more than 30 mm of rain falling over several days, while others are likely to miss out on any wet weather. There will also be severe thunderstorms in eastern and southeastern Australia’s this week, so be sure to check the latest forecasts and warnings each day. More sustained and heavier rainfall is likely to affect northern Australia this week, thanks to a slow-moving low pressure trough and embedded low pressure system. There are indications that the low may even strengthen into a tropical cyclone to the north of WA around Friday or Saturday. This increases the likelihood of severe weather in the Pilbara, Kimberley and northern Interior towards the end of the week. This weekend could also see a relatively strong cold front interacting with a stream of tropical moisture to cause a broad band of rain over central and southern Australia. The development of this rainband will be strongly influenced by the behaviour of the tropical low/cyclone in the north, so more accurate details will become available later in the week. One final thing to watch out for this week will be a bout of hot weather in southern and southeastern Australia around Friday and Saturday, ahead of the developing rainband. It is common to see extreme heat in the nation’s southeast when a tropical cyclone is active near northwestern Australia.
|
|
|
Post by srfoskey on Jan 23, 2023 12:03:32 GMT -5
After only a few flurries to start the winter, we have our first legitimate winter storm possibility tomorrow. I was busier with other things over the weekend, so I haven't been following it as closely as usual. Temperatures are marginal however, so how much accumulation we get remains to be determined.
NAM 3km model sounding
|
|
|
Post by greysrigging on Jan 23, 2023 14:53:03 GMT -5
Hmmmm..... I think the BoM might need to send a technician out to the Thredbo Top Station AWS.... lol
|
|
|
Post by ral31 on Jan 23, 2023 21:36:31 GMT -5
Enhanced severe risk along the Gulf Coast tomorrow and into the overnight hours. Looking like the warm sector will stay to my south, so I shouldn't have much of a tornado threat but strong winds and heavy rain are likely. A high wind warning was issued for tomorrow for gusts up to 50 mph. Temps may stay in the 50's during the day but reach 60F briefly after sunset before cooler air pushes in.
|
|
|
Post by desiccatedi85 on Jan 24, 2023 0:00:56 GMT -5
ral31 not the best timing for me on this event. Frontal passage expected to occur around midday Wednesday, so that little instability is generated. No severe storms expected, but I wouldn’t rule out some heavy rain and rumbles of thunder in Atlanta.
|
|
|
Post by psychedamike24 on Jan 24, 2023 4:04:02 GMT -5
Rare and extremely impressive cold in China 🇨🇳 right now. Jingtao AWS just broke the all-time national cold record for China with an astonishing -53.0°C (-63.4°F). Previous cold record stood at -52.3°C since 13 February 1969.
|
|
|
Post by Benfxmth on Jan 24, 2023 8:01:00 GMT -5
psychedamike24 Get ready for the gorebull cooling bullshitters to jump all over that record like a fat kid stealing all the chocolate from a conveyor belt...
|
|
|
Post by Strewthless on Jan 24, 2023 12:14:06 GMT -5
Huge contrasts between north and south.
|
|
|
Post by greysrigging on Jan 25, 2023 3:19:21 GMT -5
Why forecasting Snow Is So Difficult In The UK ( source: Weatherzone ) Cold winter weather in the UK almost always brings with it talk of snow. British people tend to approach weather forecasts of snow with a combination of excitement and trepidation. Who doesn't like the sight of unspoilt snow glittering over the rooftops like a Christmas card? But not many people enjoy the aftermath - an ice slush nightmare, soaking up the dirt from our streets and roads. Forecasting snow is tricky in Britain though. And predictions tend to be uncertain. By the time British people reach adulthood, particularly those who live in southern England, a lot learn to treat forecasts of snow with cynicism. You might go to bed delighted by forecasts of snow only to wake the next day greeted by rain. The UK's erratic winter weather is caused by two things: its location and the fact that small differences in temperature can cause dramatic changes to the forecast. The UK is located right where a number of different global weather systems converge . Unlike many places in the world, freezing weather in Britain is generally accompanied by northerly or easterly winds. But heavy precipitation (liquid or frozen water) is usually from the west. Colder weather in the UK makes precipitation less likely . Which is why if we see snow, it often arrives as a light shower or flurry. Thick snow usually happens when precipitation from the west hits cold air from the east or north. Weather forecasting has come a long way over the last four decades. Improved computing, satellites, transformed communication and data science have made weather forecasting much more accurate. In 2022, storm Eunice and the summer 40? heatwave are both examples of how much forecasting has improved. It is not only able to accurately predict "normal" weather, but also when extreme weather will occur. Forecasters today can predict widespread precipitation down to the hour. So mapping out wet weather is not the problem. The issue is that British winters make it a lot harder to tell what form precipitation will take when it reaches us. This means predicting whether we will get sleet, freezing rain , snow or just rain. If you watch weather forecasts on a regular basis you will probably have heard the vague phrase " wintry precipitation ". This is the forecaster wrangling with an uncertain forecast as the term covers everything from rain to snow. A lot of the rain that we see in the UK, at all times of year, was snow when it started falling, but has fallen into air that is warmer than 0?C and melted. That means when forecasters predict rain, they are often predicting melted snow. If it's 20?C in the summer, there is no doubt that by the time the snow reaches the ground it will have turned to rain. For many places in the world the reverse is true. If the temperature is going to be -10?C, it will settle on the ground as snow . Back in 2018, in the UK the Beast from the East brought with it temperatures so low the meteorologists could confidently predict snow. Most of the time, however, UK weather forecasters are working with expected temperatures close to 0?. In this case a very small change to the temperature totally changes the weather. Weather forecasts tend to be accurate down to a couple of ?. But when your baseline is 0? then a rise of 2?C will mean the snow melts and we get rain. But 2?C colder and it's just snow. Somewhere in the middle creates sleet. And this is the other main reason why predicting snow is so hard in the UK. A small difference in temperature makes a really big difference to the outcome. Precipitation lowers the air temperature. Heavier rain drops the temperature even more. Heavier sleet turns to snow. This means that even if the temperature of the system is predicted correctly, the fine details of the rate of precipitation will affect the form. It just so happens that much of the wintry weather in the UK falls at the temperature that makes the outcome sensitive to tiny changes. So, I'm afraid the phrase "wintery precipitation" is here to stay.
|
|
|
Post by Steelernation on Jan 25, 2023 14:02:01 GMT -5
Horrid weather by our standards the past week here.
Highs since the 17th:
39, 35, 35, 36, 35, 39, 34, 39
Never seen such a stable stretch here, especially with below average weather. Extremely boring but still unpleasant weather.
Next week is supposed to have a big cold snap which usually id be excited by but now I’m just sick of this cold and want a break but there’s no end in sight, nothing in the 40s in the 10-day. Fucking Shitchester ass weather.
|
|
|
Post by rozenn on Jan 25, 2023 15:01:36 GMT -5
Horrid weather by our standards the past week here. Highs since the 17th: 39, 35, 35, 36, 35, 39, 34, 39 Never seen such a stable stretch here, especially with below average weather. Extremely boring but still unpleasant weather. Next week is supposed to have a big cold snap which usually id be excited by but now I’m just sick of this cold and want a break but there’s no end in sight, nothing in the 40s in the 10-day. Fucking Shitchester ass weather. Kind of similar regarding highs here. Temps have been hovering between -1°C and 3°C for quite a few days now. Quite the forecast messup today, with 0°C and overcast instead of 5°C and sunny this afternoon. The temp has been decreasing since around midnight at the staggering rate of 0.1-0.2°C/hour regardless of whether it's daytime or nighttime:
|
|
|
Post by srfoskey on Jan 26, 2023 0:10:59 GMT -5
We got 2.7" (6.9 cm) of snow yesterday. Most of it accumulated during the first two hours of the storm, when it was producing giant flakes, some of the biggest I've seen. They had to have been close to an inch (2.5 cm) in diameter. Radar returns approached 40 dBZ. After that precipitation rates decreased. However, snow fell from around 10 in the morning until midnight. Temperatures thruout the event were around 32.5°F (0.3°C), and ground temperatures were over 40°F (4°C) at the start of the event. We probably would have had double the accumulation if it had just been a couple degrees colder.
|
|
|
Post by Benfxmth on Jan 26, 2023 10:27:14 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Ariete on Jan 26, 2023 17:37:17 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by desiccatedi85 on Jan 26, 2023 17:48:23 GMT -5
Ariete I have announced my 2040 presidential candidacy. My slogan? "Make America Mediterranean"
|
|