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Post by ilmc90 on Feb 5, 2023 8:23:49 GMT -5
Had our first (and probably last) subzero reading of the season with a low of -1 F/-18 C yesterday. The lowest windchill recorded was -14 F/-26 C.
The cold snap only lasted a couple of days. Right back to above-average temperatures this week with highs in the 40s and 50s. Tonight isn't even expected to go below freezing.
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Post by ilmc90 on Feb 5, 2023 10:40:16 GMT -5
Saranac Lake dropped down to -33 F/-36 C and had a windchill of -46 F/-43 C. Below 0 F/-18 C for 24 hours. As of 10:00AM, there was a swing of 56 degrees yesterday's low. Forecast to go above freezing today...almost a 70 degree swing.
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Post by Benfxmth on Feb 5, 2023 20:19:54 GMT -5
Quite the dramatic swing in 24 hrs. nei How does that compare to the mid-Fuckuary 2016 cold snap?
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Post by Benfxmth on Feb 5, 2023 20:25:29 GMT -5
The possible sudden stratospheric warming event might actually be a good thing: amplifying the SE ridge
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 5, 2023 20:38:22 GMT -5
Three tropical cyclones possible in Australian region this week ( source: Weatherzone ) A trio of tropical cyclones could be spinning over Australian waters by the middle of this week, with at least one of these systems a good chance of becoming a severe tropical cyclone. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will pass through the Australian region this week, enhancing cloud and rainfall over the tropics. With this enhanced convective activity will also come an increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity in Australia’s area of responsibility. Image: Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) outlook, showing an active phase of the MJO passing through the Maritime Continent (area to the north of Australia) over the coming week. Each coloured line on this chart shows one individual model member’s forecast for the MJO over the coming month. The black line shows the average of all model members, which is the most likely forecast. The grey line shows the state of the MJO over the past month. When the MJO is active (outside the circle) and in phases 4, 5 or 6, we usually see more cloud and rain near northern Australia and an increased likelihood of tropical cyclone activity. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Several forecast models are showing signs that three tropical lows or tropical cyclones could be active in Australia’s area of responsibility by the middle of this week. We can already see the areas of cloud that may become these cyclones on the satellite image below, which was captured by the Himawari-9 satellite at 11:00am AEDT today. The Bureau of Meteorology has already started issuing track maps for the western-most low, which was located near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Monday morning. At this stage, this low is expected to become a category one tropical cyclone on Wednesday before moving towards the west, away from the Australian mainland later in the week. Another developing low located about 700 km to the north-northwest of Broome is expected to gain strength over the next couple of days as it drifts towards the south or southwest. This system could become a tropical cyclone by Wednesday and has the potential to strengthen further on Thursday and Friday. Forecast models currently expect this system to track towards the west and remain well to the north of WA’s Pilbara coast throughout the week. Image: Forecast wind gusts speed and direction on Thursday morning this week, according to the ECMWF-HRES model, showing three tropical lows or tropical cyclones spinning over the Australian region. A third tropical low is expected to develop over the northern Coral Sea early this week, before gaining strength and moving towards the southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone and while it is currently expected to remain offshore all week, it may get close enough to the Queensland coast to cause dangerous weather over land. Some forecast models predict this system will become a severe tropical cyclone (category three or higher) from Thursday. The next three tropical cyclones to form over Australia’s area of responsibility will be named Freddy, Gabrielle and Herman, with the names being assigned in order of formation. Tropical cyclones are notoriously difficult systems to predict, and their forecast track and strength can change significantly from day-to-day. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings throughout this week.
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Post by jgtheone on Feb 6, 2023 5:21:41 GMT -5
The one near Broome should push some heat down here.
I've found it really odd how there have been a complete lack of tropical cyclones during 3 back-to-back La Ninas. Maybe lower SSTs above the Tropic of Capricorn?
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Post by aabc123 on Feb 6, 2023 18:25:29 GMT -5
Some more cold readings from the cold snap in eastern North America. Mt. Washington was the coldest of course.
Boston Logan airport: -10F/-23C, coldest hourly reading was -9F with winds at 25 gusting to 35mph (40 gust 56kph) for a wind chill of -36F/-38C at 4am. The dew point of -31F/-35C is also insanely low and several other stations in the area I checked were all around there. All-time low is -18F. Frenchville in northern Maine, on the border with Canada was reporting -23 or -24F with wind from 7:30 pm to 3:30am, with sustained winds of 25 to 35mph, giving wind chills in the -55 to -60F range. (-31C, wind 40-56kph, wind chill -48 to -51C) Port aux Basques in southern Newfoundland wasn't as cold, only -18C/0F, but the wind was ferocious, with sustained wind around 75kph and a gust as high as 114 (46 and 71mph) for hours. Afternoon temperatures in some places were more impressive than the overnight lows. This was all 2pm local time, usually the warm time of day.
Montreal: -25.6C, drifting snow, wind WNW 35G50, wind chill -41 Quebec: -28.5C, drifting snow, wind WNW 30G47, wind chill -44 Ottawa: -26.5C, drifting snow, wind WNW 30G46, wind chill -41 Parts of Nunavut were under an extreme cold warning, too. The most impressive was Sanirajak, NU.
For over 24 hours straight, it was reporting about -43C with 20kph winds (-45F, 12mph), wind chill around -60 (-76F). It has since "warmed up" to -41. and the thickness of the snow cover is also worth mentioning: in Ottawa, the capital of Canada, there is, for example, 64 cm of snow.
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Post by dunnowhattoputhere on Feb 7, 2023 1:08:44 GMT -5
Since the 15th of Jan, we’ve only had 1.9mm/0.07”of rain here - and there is absolutely zero rain in the forecast. No complaints from me, especially since the first half of January was very wet.
Looks like February is shaping up to be mild & dry too.
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Post by rozenn on Feb 7, 2023 7:34:12 GMT -5
7h43 of bright sun yesterday, the most we've had since November 13. The dark season is ending.
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Post by aabc123 on Feb 7, 2023 9:33:24 GMT -5
Europe is milder than North America indeed. Bucharest, just one degree south of Ottawa, recorded two consecutive days of temperatures above 20c in January, setting a new January heat record, this record is now 20.9c.
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Post by kronan2 on Feb 7, 2023 11:04:52 GMT -5
Impressive cold in parts of Russia last month. Isn't that central red dot in the blue area a -12C anomaly?
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Post by rozenn on Feb 7, 2023 13:36:35 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 7, 2023 16:06:20 GMT -5
Cyclone Expected To Barrel Towards Norfolk Island { source: Weatherzone ) It promises to be a nervous few days for the 2200 residents of Norfolk Island, as a dangerous tropical storm develops in the Coral Sea and tracks southwards. At this stage, the weather system is still classified as a tropical low, but it's likely to develop into a cyclone in the next day or so. If that happens, it will probably be called Cyclone Gabrielle. The image below pains a pretty dramatic picture. It shows the intensity of low pressure centred almost directly on Norfolk Island, as projected for this coming Saturday night, February 11. The BoM's cyclone track map shows a similar picture. Norfolk Island is the tiny brown speck just below the pair of twos at the end of the of the track. That means it could be facing a Category 2 tropical cyclone, with sustained wind speeds of 89 to 117 km/h, and typical gusts over open flat land or seas of 125 to 164 km/h. A breakdown of tropical cyclones is below. Are tropical cyclones common on Norfolk Island? The short answer is yes, but destructive cyclones are very uncommon. If Norfolk Island were part of the Australian coastline, it would be located about 100 km south of the Queensland border. So it's a fair way south for cyclone activity. For example, it's been more than 30 years since a cyclone struck Byron Bay or further south But cyclones tend to maintain strength for longer out at sea, and because Norfolk Island is so far away from the mainland (it's 1471 km from Brisbane!), cyclones track its way quite frequently. Between 1969 and 2010, approximately 49 cyclones passed within 500 km of the island, according to the BoM. While most of those cyclones weaken, there is always the chance that a cyclone can maintain its strength as it reaches the island, as this week's charts suggest could happen. We'll keep you updated. Why don't we know the name of this potential cyclone yet? As we told you on Monday, there were three low pressure systems around northern Australia this week that all had the potential to become topical cyclones. TC Freddy, located off WA's northwest coast, became a cyclone on Monday night, and the low in the Coral Sea could be next. As mentioned, that would make it Cyclone Gabrielle, although if the tropical low currently over the Cocos Islands develops into a cyclone first, the Qld low would become Cyclone Herman.
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 7, 2023 18:31:23 GMT -5
Tropical Cyclones on both sides of the Continent.... the Northern Wet is about to ramp up again.
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Post by rozenn on Feb 8, 2023 1:43:28 GMT -5
Contrasting temps over northern England, at the boundary between a mild but calm & anticyclonic airmass to the south and lower heights but more dynamic, westerly flow to the north:
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Post by Beercules on Feb 8, 2023 2:33:46 GMT -5
GONNA KILL MASELF GONNA DRINK SOME BEEEERRRR First week of Fuckuary is over, and the cold is beyond extreme. MTD anbominomolies are -5.3C for the high and -4.5C for the low. This is unprecedented even for recent cold Fuckuaries. This is beyond rage level now. Fuckuary at its Fuckyoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo finest. MTD temps are 12.0C / 27.3C For comparison, lets look at everywhere else at the same latitude Shitney Airport: 20.3 / 28.7C Shitney/Penroids: 18.2 / 31.3C Hay Gays: 10.3 / 28.7C (no better due to the extremely cold lows) Kumgoorlie, WA: 18.7 / 34.4C Perf Derfs: 19.1 / 32.9C In conclusion, fuck you into the brown bowels of bloody hell Only saving grace is the Hay Gays did not upstage me FOR ONCE. Even Buttcrack Hill was no better for once, so not even the Buttcrackians escaped this historic long-duration polar assault.
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Post by jgtheone on Feb 8, 2023 4:28:23 GMT -5
GONNA KILL MASELF GONNA DRINK SOME BEEEERRRR First week of Fuckuary is over, and the cold is beyond extreme. MTD anbominomolies are -5.3C for the high and -4.5C for the low. This is unprecedented even for recent cold Fuckuaries. This is beyond rage level now. Fuckuary at its Fuckyoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo finest. MTD temps are 12.0C / 27.3C For comparison, lets look at everywhere else at the same latitude Shitney Airport: 20.3 / 28.7C Shitney/Penroids: 18.2 / 31.3C Hay Gays: 10.3 / 28.7C (no better due to the extremely cold lows) Kumgoorlie, WA: 18.7 / 34.4C Perf Derfs: 19.1 / 32.9C In conclusion, fuck you into the brown bowels of bloody hell Only saving grace is the Hay Gays did not upstage me FOR ONCE. Even Buttcrack Hill was no better for once, so not even the Buttcrackians escaped this historic long-duration polar assault. We have only had one month of summer (January) for the last 3 years. The high anomaly is similar here, more than 5C below the average. This is even with OLD averages.
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Post by shalop on Feb 8, 2023 17:02:58 GMT -5
Drove up 8 hours to the Adirondacks this past weekend and measured a -35c. Today I'm back in MD and it got up to +17c. So I got an outdoor range of about 52c or 93f over 5 days. Not very notable given that it's not in a fixed location but might be my largest in such a short period, and interestingly over a distance that's drivable in half a day.
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Post by Babu on Feb 9, 2023 7:05:28 GMT -5
Warm weather coming to northern Sweden. Ridicculous forecast for Nikkaluokta, the coldest non-mountain station in Sweden, with a February record of 9.4'C. Strikingly enough, SMHI only has a 4'C max in the forecast. It didn't quite get to 15'C. The forecast was pretty accurate for 3 days though.
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Post by Benfxmth on Feb 9, 2023 7:20:11 GMT -5
Warm weather coming to northern Sweden. Ridicculous forecast for Nikkaluokta, the coldest non-mountain station in Sweden, with a February record of 9.4'C. Strikingly enough, SMHI only has a 4'C max in the forecast. It didn't quite get to 15'C. The forecast was pretty accurate for 3 days though. An mean positive error of +8.3°F (4.6°C) for highs and +2.3°F (1.3°C) for lows...and a forecast 59/14°F day?! Astoundingly poor performance. What was SMHI's forecast for that period? WeatherOnline is toilet paper, mate. It's horribly inaccurate, pretty fucking sad that some in here still swallow WO's forecast hook-line-sinker because "herd mentality".
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