Top End Wet Season 2023 - 2024

So now GFS thinks they are forcasting in Walt Disney;s 'Fantasyland' tsk tsk....
And of course the FB forecasters jump all over it....
Its complete bullshit of course..... except thats what we all said only a month ago when the forecast rainfall inland from Cairns was +2000mm ( 80") in a couple of days.... which was exactly what happened !

( source: Your Weather Channel - JWC FB Page )
Ummmmm we have no words

GFS is now getting in on the act! This is for the next two weeks as the monsoon low barely goes anywhere! A wobble to the south or east and that type of rainfall will be fall over land

This is getting insane! Once again mammoth rainfall estimates at different times by the models this time for the Kimberley to Top End areas! But while of northern Australia will see large amounts

More to come…

From PCOW Darwin:
Current 8 day and 10 day from BOM and ECMWF. They are reflecting the opinion that the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf low, which should show itself about Friday, will move inland across the base of the Top End. 
Yes, looks like a longer and stronger monsoon than predicted a few days ago is a distinct possibility. Will be watching it hourly from here on in.

This is why Top Enders hang out for the Monsoon to appear and why we get twitchy when it's 2 and a half weeks late !

Darwin district ths morning:

Monsoon Arrives Over Northern Australia
( source: Weatherzone )


The long-awaited monsoon has arrived over northern Australia, with heavy rain set to soak part of Northern Qld, the Top End and Kimberley over the coming week.
The monsoon refers to seasonal northwesterly winds that bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Australia’s northern tropics during the wet season. In an average season, the monsoon arrives over northern Australia during mid-to-late December, but this year it was late to arrive under the influence of El Niño.
The monsoon is now bringing some much-needed relief from oppressive heat and humidity that gripped northern Australia during the ‘build-up’. Darwin had its hottest start to a year on record due to the tardiness of the monsoon this season.

While this year's monsoon was late, it did not beat the record set in 1973 when it didn’t arrive in Darwin until January 25.

The image below shows the increased cloudiness across northern Australia on Friday morning, revealing the presence of monsoonal rain and thunderstorms in the region.


This wet phase of the monsoon will likely last around 10 to 15 days, meaning that rain and thunderstorms will be frequent across northern Australia during this period.
The map below shows that in the next 7 days, widespread falls exceeding 100 mm are forecast across the Kimberley, the Top End and Far North Qld, while some areas could surpass 300 to 500 mm in the week.

An area of convergence within the monsoon trough has developed along the northeast tropical coast in Qld on Friday, December 12. This prompted a severe weather warning on Friday morning for heavy rainfall, flash flooding and a minor flood warning in the Port Douglas and Daintree area.

Unfortunately, this rain is falling in the same area that received flooding rain from Tropical Cyclone Jasper and an associated monsoon burst last month.
The presence of the monsoon trough also increases the likelihood of tropical cyclones near northern Australia, particularly if embedded low-pressure systems remain over warm water for several days.

Forecast models suggest that three separate tropical lows could form in the Australian region during the coming week. However, these lows only have a low risk of becoming tropical cyclones at this stage.
The map below shows where the Bureau of Meteorology expects the three lows to be located on Sunday, January 14, with the centre of the systems expected to be located somewhere inside the orange or yellow shaded areas.

A tropical low (designated) 03U may develop in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf before moving south over the weekend. At this stage, there is a low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone as it will not have enough time over water before it crosses the NT coast by Monday.

While it is unlikely this system will develop into a tropical cyclone, it should still bring widespread rain, thunderstorms and possible gales to the Top End and Kimberley region in the coming days.
Weak tropical low 04U will also form to northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, with a low risk of becoming a cyclone.

Another tropical low, 05U, could form in the Gulf of Carpentaria and has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone from Sunday. Some models suggest this system could cross Cape York Peninsula and move over the Coral Sea at some stage next week. This system is likely to contribute to heavy rain and thunderstorms to Far North Qld over the coming week.

Be sure to check the latest tropical cyclone outlooks and advisories, and weather and flood warnings, for the most up-to-date information.

Monsoon and low are going up a gear.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Tiwi and parts of Daly and Arnhem districts.
Issued at 3:31 pm Saturday, 13 January 2024.
Damaging wind gusts with monsoon squalls expected to develop late on Sunday.
Weather Situation: The monsoon trough lies across the base of the Top End. A tropical low near Wadeye is likely to move slowly eastwards further inland this weekend and early next week while deepening. Monsoonal flow across the northern Top End is likely to increase significantly from Sunday afternoon.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS with peak gusts to around 90 km/h are possible with monsoon squalls over the northern Daly, Tiwi and northwestern Arnhem districts from Sunday afternoon, with the risk continuing Sunday night into Monday.
Locations which may be affected include Darwin, Palmerston, Maningrida, Wurrumiyanga, Milikapiti and Pirlangimpi.
The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate
* ensure pets and animals are safe
* be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit
* for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au

Moonsoonal across the north west Top End

Some huge rain totals at Wadeye/Port Keats:

Last 5 days ( and another 66mm overnight )

January so far at Port Keats.... can see the monsoonal low breaking by the rain and temps

Surfs up on Darwin beaches with this spell of monsoonal weather...