The Top End Wet Season 2024-2025

The November heatwave marches on across the Top End of the NT:



Heatwave conditions in QLD as well:

Forecasts for selected towns in the Top End:

Unrelenting heatwave gripping northern Australia
( source: Weatherzone )

A severe to extreme heatwave will continue to bake northern Australia this weekend and into next week, with temperatures possibly approaching the high-40s around Wednesday or Thursday.

The upper-level weather pattern over Australia is currently in a zonal state, meaning the upper-level winds are generally flowing in a west-east direction. This zonal flow is allowing a slow-moving upper-level high pressure system to remain centered over Australia, which is causing a very hot air mass to linger across northern parts of the country.

Over the past week, this hot air mass caused temperatures to exceeded 45°C at six separate weather stations in WA, Qld and northwest NSW, getting as high as 45.9°C at Roebourne in WA’s Pilbara region.

Unfortunately, the heat isn’t going anywhere soon and a severe to extreme heatwave – the two highest categories on the Australian heatwave scale – are set to linger in parts of WA, the NT and Qld through this weekend and into next week.

The maps below show the heatwave severity forecasts for the next six days, broken down into two three-day periods.

^^Image: Heatwave severity forecast for the three days starting on Friday, November 8, 2024.

^^Image: Heatwave severity forecast for the three days starting on Monday, November 11, 2024.

Some computer models suggest that maximum temperatures in far western Qld could hover around 41 to 44°C during the next seven days. There are also indications that temperatures could once again exceed 45°C in northern WA around Wednesday or Thursday next week.

^^Image: Forecast maximum temperature on Wednesday, November 13, 2024, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.

While northern Australia is usually hot at this time of year, the heatwave currently gripping the region is abnormally hot for November. In the Pilbara, Onslow Airport’s running average maximum temperature for the first week of November was 39.4°C, which is 5°C above the long-term average.

A long range forecaster goose on Ski.com and his predictions for the NT in October... and my responses to what actually happened in October.

The last 12 months in Darwin... every month except January (-0.2c ) above the long term means re max temps ( 1941-2024 means )

Using 1991-2020 means:

Only January below the latest 30 year means ( -0.4c )
And May and September set new monthly mean max temp records.

Today's max of 35.7c is the 41st day of the year to exceed 35c ( record 45 days in 2019 )

The first 2 weeks November in Darwin Rural areas:
Batchelor:

Noonamah:

Middle Point:


And the first 2 weeks of November away from the Darwin region:
Pirlangimpi, Bathurst Island:

Jabiru, Kakadu National Park:

Wadeye, West Coast:


And the first 2 weeks of November Inland Top end:
Katherine:

VRD cattle station:

Borroloola:

With a bit of luck there might be some rain out of this early morning cell moving west along the north coast...


Edit: looks like Gunn Point is copping it... nothing for me...

A few showers this morning to our north at Gunn Point:

Some more storms heading our way later this evening...

Hector the Convector really crankin' up over on Bathurst Island !