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Post by coolman18 on Jan 24, 2024 19:21:47 GMT -5
What do y'all think Seattle's climate in 2100 will be like? Some studies I've looked at show 10-12°F warming by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario.
If we really do warm by that much, we will have a hot summer Mediterranean climate with hot, dry summers that will probably be drier than they are now, and mild wet winters. Sea-level snow is almost an annual occurrence in Seattle but by 2100 it may be a thing of the past. However, we will still have arctic air come down via the Fraser gap, and even though this air will be milder, it *may* still be cold enough to support the occasional lowland snow event.
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Post by tommyFL on Jan 24, 2024 19:27:32 GMT -5
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Post by Steelernation on Jan 24, 2024 21:25:47 GMT -5
Like recent years in Portland
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Post by Cheeseman on Jan 24, 2024 22:30:55 GMT -5
Like recent years in Portland An actually serious and sensible answer. 2100 is just 76 years away. 10-12 F warming between now and then is not gonna happen, just like I'm not gonna magically grow a second head and Madison isn't gonna become a tropical paradise. |
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Post by coolman18 on Jan 24, 2024 22:57:05 GMT -5
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Post by massiveshibe on Jan 25, 2024 7:52:02 GMT -5
1C warmer at most due to urban heat island effect, otherwise pretty much like today.
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Post by Metsfan257 on Jan 25, 2024 17:25:01 GMT -5
Just like Corvallis is now I’d guess  |
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Post by grega94 on Jan 27, 2024 5:21:51 GMT -5
So I took the data from NOAA and graphed it out. for each year I took the average of the 30 previous years to smooth out the graph and then used the linear trendlines to come up with my data points for 2100. for the extremes I took the min / max of the 30-year period and if the record wasn't broken, I kept it as is, otherwise replaced it with the projected record breaker. (Record lows are trending up so they are the same as now). Also I only used data from SeaTac Airport which only goes back to 1945. I at first tried to also use the data from downtown Seattle but since the microclimates are slightly different it throws off the trendlines in wacky directions.  *One thing to keep note is that January is warming much faster than either December and February and that it would have a high of 54.2F and a low of 44.0F, I considered that to be anomalous (December has just over taken January as the coldest month, I think January will slow down in warming as time goes on) and so I averaged February and December. Also, I played around with the snow totals since the trendlines go into the negatives for December and January, so I averaged between November and February. If anyone is interested I can provide screenshots of the trendlines. |
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Post by grega94 on Jan 27, 2024 6:12:50 GMT -5
Here is the climate table if I leave January alone.  |
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