|
|
Post by Lommaren on Apr 6, 2018 4:58:35 GMT -5
If any of these models are correct Nyköping might look like this in 2081-2110. What about your climates? I'll try and make a few more based on a 3°C global warming scenario that this one comes out of; especially considering Nyköping's high latitude. I really doubt it'll ever be like this though, especially winters. It would take a lot to eliminate Russian easterlies' cold effect and keep ice months completely out, but hey, who knows?  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2018 5:23:02 GMT -5
At a guess...
Jan: 10/4c, 70 hrs sun
Feb: 11/4c, 85 hrs sun
Mar: 13/5c, 130 hrs sun
Apr: 16/7c, 200 hrs sun
May: 19/10c, 205 hrs sun
Jun: 22/13c, 190 hrs sun
Jul: 24/16c, 195 hrs sun
Aug: 22/15c, 160 hrs sun
Sep: 21/13c, 160 hrs sun
Oct: 17/11c, 120 hrs sun
Nov: 13/8c, 80 hrs sun
Dec: 11/5c, 60 hrs sun
Better or worse than 81-10?
|
|
|
|
Post by jgtheone on Apr 6, 2018 5:48:31 GMT -5
Probably this if I was to guess based off climate change predictions. Stronger spring fronts bringing rain, drier summers and overall warmer and sunnier but rainfall remaining roughly the same. Also the 50C is something they have been throwing around for a while too. I still think the odd frost will occur, even in 60-70 years time.  |
|
|
|
Post by Hlidskjalf on Apr 6, 2018 5:52:31 GMT -5
This looks promising. I sure hope we make some significant advancement in life extension technology.
On the other hand: I fear a new ice age is approaching so maybe that normal
in reality would be more similar to Esperanza Base.
|
|
|
|
Post by Ariete on Apr 6, 2018 6:30:06 GMT -5
This is the one I did a couple of years ago based on the FMI estimates:  What I can say is that the September mean is already off, and should be 0.5C higher. But Lommaren, your scenario is fanciful in some points. Our latitude, the length of days or geography will not change. What climatologists agree completely is that our winters will warm up the most, summers the least. The winters will be even more gloomier, snowfall will decrease and rainfall will increase. Therefore springs will warm more than autumns. Less ice in the Baltic, less snow, more rapid warmup in spring. Late autumn to early spring will have more oceanic moist stratocrapulus. Early autumn will warm up a bit less than the springs despite the warmer sea, because of the shorter days and less sunshine. |
|
|
|
Post by Lommaren on Apr 6, 2018 6:55:49 GMT -5
On the other hand Ariete during heat waves this area is prone to very warm September nights on occasion, I've quite often experienced temps being in the double figures in the middle of the night in October. Since SST will increase the lag will therefore increase too and create 2014 and 2016-like conditions pretty much every year. There is also no direct link to the Russian landmass here, which further increases seasonal lag. Unlike on the eastern side of the Baltic Sea; September has consistently warmer means than May here, and is even on average warmer during daytime in spite of the lower sun angle. Unlike Turku, this is far enough south for sea ice to have no effect on the climate in spring. It's only about the SST of the Baltic Sea in spring down here since the basin barely ever freezes in winter; that further escalates seasonal lag's continuance under a warmer climate regime. So, while I understand where you're coming from; at 1.5° stronger sun and less contact with a cooling landmass; I reckon August and September will warm just as much as spring. Also my scenario contains winters warming more than summers. I think 1.5°C warmer highs in January would be quite reasonable in relation to Helsinki, quite similar to what is already the case today. Having said that, it appears rather consistent on the western side of even the Bothnian Bay that September is warmer than May. That is repeated on higher latitudes as well, even though the drop of sun strength is even more acute there. So, all in all in the tilt of balance Gulf Stream vs Russia, all of Sweden is tilted towards the Gulf; which explains my reasoning for the box looking like it did. Also, the sunshine hours could easily be discussed; my scenario there contains that high-pressure systems from the south will be stronger and have an easier pathway through during summer, which is where the increase is notable. I do tend to believe precipitation might be higher than I reckoned and that you're probably right for Finland's absence of seasonal lag. Thoughts?  |
|
|
|
Post by P London on Apr 6, 2018 8:09:08 GMT -5
At a guess... Jan: 10/4c, 70 hrs sun Feb: 11/4c, 85 hrs sun Mar: 13/5c, 130 hrs sun Apr: 16/7c, 200 hrs sun May: 19/10c, 205 hrs sun Jun: 22/13c, 190 hrs sun Jul: 24/16c, 195 hrs sun Aug: 22/15c, 160 hrs sun Sep: 21/13c, 160 hrs sun Oct: 17/11c, 120 hrs sun Nov: 13/8c, 80 hrs sun Dec: 11/5c, 60 hrs sun Better or worse than 81-10? Those summer sunshine hours look horrible. |
|
|
|
Post by Ariete on Apr 6, 2018 10:33:42 GMT -5
On the other hand Ariete during heat waves this area is prone to very warm September nights on occasion, I've quite often experienced temps being in the double figures in the middle of the night in October. Since SST will increase the lag will therefore increase too and create 2014 and 2016-like conditions pretty much every year. There is also no direct link to the Russian landmass here, which further increases seasonal lag. Unlike on the eastern side of the Baltic Sea; September has consistently warmer means than May here, and is even on average warmer during daytime in spite of the lower sun angle. Unlike Turku, this is far enough south for sea ice to have no effect on the climate in spring. It's only about the SST of the Baltic Sea in spring down here since the basin barely ever freezes in winter; that further escalates seasonal lag's continuance under a warmer climate regime. So, while I understand where you're coming from; at 1.5° stronger sun and less contact with a cooling landmass; I reckon August and September will warm just as much as spring. Also my scenario contains winters warming more than summers. I think 1.5°C warmer highs in January would be quite reasonable in relation to Helsinki, quite similar to what is already the case today. Having said that, it appears rather consistent on the western side of even the Bothnian Bay that September is warmer than May. That is repeated on higher latitudes as well, even though the drop of sun strength is even more acute there. So, all in all in the tilt of balance Gulf Stream vs Russia, all of Sweden is tilted towards the Gulf; which explains my reasoning for the box looking like it did. Also, the sunshine hours could easily be discussed; my scenario there contains that high-pressure systems from the south will be stronger and have an easier pathway through during summer, which is where the increase is notable. I do tend to believe precipitation might be higher than I reckoned and that you're probably right for Finland's absence of seasonal lag. Thoughts? Yes, Helsinki A and Turku experiences the same things. The SST's will increase the lag only marginally, because the Baltic Sea is extremely shallow, and will cool down as fast as it warms up. Out the west coast of Sweden the Baltic is at its deepest, so lows might be affected more than here. But the highs won't. September has consistently warmer means than May here too. Since 1991 at Helsinki Airport May has been warmer than September 9 times, usually with very small differences. The sea not freezing near you is of marginal effect, as the sea will freeze more seldom here as well. You being one degree further south has no effect whatsoever. If anything, it will be in our favour because the archipelago will freeze over more seldom. The second fallacy you have is that because the climate is warming, you assume that every month will be warmer than average. There wil be colder than average months any month of the year, bringing down the averages. |
|
|
|
Post by Steelernation on Apr 6, 2018 10:36:34 GMT -5
I’ll make a more detailed box when I get home later but I think skigh warmer January, similar February and March, 2-3 F warmer April and May, similar summers, 2-3 F warmer falls, and 2-3” more precipitation and snowfall.
|
|
|
|
Post by Beercules on Apr 6, 2018 10:46:10 GMT -5
Same as now.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2018 10:51:07 GMT -5
At a guess... Jan: 10/4c, 70 hrs sun Feb: 11/4c, 85 hrs sun Mar: 13/5c, 130 hrs sun Apr: 16/7c, 200 hrs sun May: 19/10c, 205 hrs sun Jun: 22/13c, 190 hrs sun Jul: 24/16c, 195 hrs sun Aug: 22/15c, 160 hrs sun Sep: 21/13c, 160 hrs sun Oct: 17/11c, 120 hrs sun Nov: 13/8c, 80 hrs sun Dec: 11/5c, 60 hrs sun Better or worse than 81-10? Those summer sunshine hours look horrible. Believe it or not they are an improvement over the average of the last decade (180 hrs in June and July, 155 hrs in August). If we don't get any average or sunny summers in the next 3 years, then none of the summer months will average over 200 hours in the 91-20 averages. Not even the 60s summers were this cloudy. |
|
|
|
Post by Lommaren on Apr 6, 2018 11:15:58 GMT -5
Did you like the source for my weatherbox? "AGW.gov"?  Kinda funny if you ask me. |
|
|
|
Post by knot on Apr 6, 2018 11:46:37 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Steelernation on Apr 6, 2018 12:54:01 GMT -5
|
|
