Post by sari on Apr 7, 2018 12:01:55 GMT -5
This is an interesting phenomenon to me. Statistics that are perfectly accurate, but are misleading about what really happens/happened.
I find these most frequently with snowfall statistics, so here's an example.
The snowiest winter ever recorded in Kansas City was 1911-1912, which registered a season total of 67.0 inches. (As an odd coincidence, KC's least-snowy winter ever recorded was 2011-2012, exactly 100 years later).
However, if you take a closer look, you'll discover that 1911-1912's snowy status is not the full story! The apparent extremeness of this one winter is created by an outlier.
The largest single snowstorm ever recorded in Kansas City dropped 24.2 inches of snow in three days on 22-24 March 1912. March 1912 is by far Kansas City's snowiest single month ever recorded, with an insane monthly total of 41.2 inches. If March 1912 was an entire winter rather than a single month, it would still be one of the snowiest on record, and the one month alone contains more than half of the entire winter's snowfall! Disregarding this one extreme snowstorm (not even the rest of the insanity of March 1912, just the one storm), the snow total for this winter is 42.8 inches - certainly high for KC, but not nearly so exceptional as the winter's official statistic. 1911-1912 may have had a lot of snow, but it wasn't a consistently snowy winter. December and January snowfall totals are in fact below average for the time, registering as 3.3 and 5.9 inches - which is about average for 1981-2010, but given climate shifts, very likely below average snow at the time. While the final snow total was high, most of the winter was not exceptionally snowy.
Nothing is incorrect in the statistics, yet, if you considered snow totals alone, 1911-1912 seems like it would have been a winter wonderland. But it wasn't - only March 1912 was.
So if it's not 1911-1912, what is KC's real snowiest winter, then? Which one would drop snow at a steady pace and feel snowiest as you lived through it?
Let's go down the list of winters with the highest snow totals.
1959-1960: total 58.5 inches. But, 14 of those inches came from a single storm on 14-15 March 1960, and means that 30 of those inches come from just the month of March. Very unbalanced winter again.
1961-1962: total 54.7 inches. But, 14 of those inches came from a single storm on 18-19 January 1962, which means that 30.5 of those inches come from just the month of January. Another unbalanced winter.
2009-2010: total 44.3 inches. This winter, however, is much more evenly spread! November recorded 1.2 inches, December 15.1 (whole month - multiple snowstorms), January 7.4, February 11.8, and March 8.8. I have a clear memory of snow remaining stable on the ground from late December around Christmas all the way through to near the end of January, and so it is this that looks like it could be called the most consistently snowy winter.
There are lots of similar statistical situations out there. Share yours, and give the "correct" answers that misleading statistics hide!
I find these most frequently with snowfall statistics, so here's an example.
The snowiest winter ever recorded in Kansas City was 1911-1912, which registered a season total of 67.0 inches. (As an odd coincidence, KC's least-snowy winter ever recorded was 2011-2012, exactly 100 years later).
However, if you take a closer look, you'll discover that 1911-1912's snowy status is not the full story! The apparent extremeness of this one winter is created by an outlier.
The largest single snowstorm ever recorded in Kansas City dropped 24.2 inches of snow in three days on 22-24 March 1912. March 1912 is by far Kansas City's snowiest single month ever recorded, with an insane monthly total of 41.2 inches. If March 1912 was an entire winter rather than a single month, it would still be one of the snowiest on record, and the one month alone contains more than half of the entire winter's snowfall! Disregarding this one extreme snowstorm (not even the rest of the insanity of March 1912, just the one storm), the snow total for this winter is 42.8 inches - certainly high for KC, but not nearly so exceptional as the winter's official statistic. 1911-1912 may have had a lot of snow, but it wasn't a consistently snowy winter. December and January snowfall totals are in fact below average for the time, registering as 3.3 and 5.9 inches - which is about average for 1981-2010, but given climate shifts, very likely below average snow at the time. While the final snow total was high, most of the winter was not exceptionally snowy.
Nothing is incorrect in the statistics, yet, if you considered snow totals alone, 1911-1912 seems like it would have been a winter wonderland. But it wasn't - only March 1912 was.
So if it's not 1911-1912, what is KC's real snowiest winter, then? Which one would drop snow at a steady pace and feel snowiest as you lived through it?
Let's go down the list of winters with the highest snow totals.
1959-1960: total 58.5 inches. But, 14 of those inches came from a single storm on 14-15 March 1960, and means that 30 of those inches come from just the month of March. Very unbalanced winter again.
1961-1962: total 54.7 inches. But, 14 of those inches came from a single storm on 18-19 January 1962, which means that 30.5 of those inches come from just the month of January. Another unbalanced winter.
2009-2010: total 44.3 inches. This winter, however, is much more evenly spread! November recorded 1.2 inches, December 15.1 (whole month - multiple snowstorms), January 7.4, February 11.8, and March 8.8. I have a clear memory of snow remaining stable on the ground from late December around Christmas all the way through to near the end of January, and so it is this that looks like it could be called the most consistently snowy winter.
There are lots of similar statistical situations out there. Share yours, and give the "correct" answers that misleading statistics hide!
