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Post by Babu on Aug 16, 2019 19:40:59 GMT -5
So, if we don't do anything lower global warming, this is apparently what Umeå will look like in the year 2100. (I added the seasonal increases onto the 61-90 averages that they were based on, and kept diurnals the same as the 02-18 weatherbox). Looking at the diagram, it very closely follows the same warming as we've seen so far since the year 1960.  If it weren't for the fact that I'll be dead in 2100, I wouldn't mind living in Umeå then. I'd say it's a C. Maybe C+ if looked at in a vacuum, ignoring the weak sun and dark winters, but sadly those won't be fixed with a warmer climate. Summers are very nice, although still on the short side, and shoulder seasons are still coolish so it's not quite as good as Graz, Austria was for 81-10, but it's still alright. It's also hard to know what will happen with sunshine levels. If we extrapolate using the difference in the 02-18 normal to the 61-90 normal, we'd be sitting around 2250h/y in the year 2100, which would make it about as sunny as NYC which is alright I guess even though it isn't ideal. So what do you think? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2019 20:16:31 GMT -5
D/D+. Still way too cold and high-latitude but it's a huge improvement.
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Post by Steelernation on Aug 16, 2019 20:32:15 GMT -5
Ignoring the fact that won’t happen, it’s a C-
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Post by knot on Aug 16, 2019 20:34:33 GMT -5
C+; bland as a bullocky's ball.
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Post by Beercules on Aug 16, 2019 20:35:14 GMT -5
F. Fake news. Oh yeah the fake news climate is shit aswell.
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Post by tij on Aug 16, 2019 21:02:06 GMT -5
C-, seems much more liveable overall, but transitions and summer are a bit too cool for my taste
The projection seems rather generous imo!
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Post by Crunch41 on Aug 16, 2019 21:26:42 GMT -5
B, summer is better but winter is worse. Too mild in winter now. Looks unrealistic but I don't follow Swedish climate
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Post by Ariete on Aug 17, 2019 5:37:11 GMT -5
F-, fake news box.
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Post by Speagles84 on Aug 17, 2019 6:52:46 GMT -5
Completely unrealistic. But assuming end of the workers are correct is a C. Yuck, great climate to a crappy cfb
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Post by jgtheone on Aug 17, 2019 8:01:38 GMT -5
lmao the march high increasing by 7C wtf
Still a D-, but waaay better than current Umea.
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Post by Babu on Aug 17, 2019 8:24:06 GMT -5
lmao the march high increasing by 7C wtf Still a D-, but waaay better than current Umea. I think I accidentally wrote the wrong March high. I think it's supposed to be 7.1, not 8.1 |
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Post by alex992 on Aug 17, 2019 8:38:21 GMT -5
lmao the march high increasing by 7C wtf Still a D-, but waaay better than current Umea. I think I accidentally wrote the wrong March high. I think it's supposed to be 7.1, not 8.1 Even so, a 6 C increase isn't gonna happen. This climate is a D, bland and boring. I prefer Umea now over this. |
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Post by Ariete on Aug 17, 2019 8:41:49 GMT -5
I think I accidentally wrote the wrong March high. I think it's supposed to be 7.1, not 8.1
I think you accidentally got all figures wrong. Look, here's FMI's predictions for Kronoby RCP 6 for 2085, mean temps
Jan: -0.4C Feb: -0.9C
Mar: 2.1C
Apr: 5.8C
May: 12.0C
June: 16.9C
July: 18.8C
Aug: 16.7C
Sep: 11.8C
Oct: 7.1C
Nov: 3.3C
Dec: 0.8C YEAR: 7.9C
Annual precipitation: 640 mm.
Your figures are completely impossible and I wonder how you came to the conclusion you did.
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Post by Nidaros on Aug 17, 2019 8:42:44 GMT -5
From an annual mean of 3C to a mean of 9C??
That's 6C warming!
This one was made by Kronan:
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Post by trolik on Aug 17, 2019 10:16:06 GMT -5
For everyone saying 6C warming by 2100 is OTT, bear in mind that far northern latitudes are warming the fastest. This climate is an E tho, still too cold for too long
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Post by Babu on Aug 17, 2019 10:19:20 GMT -5
I think I accidentally wrote the wrong March high. I think it's supposed to be 7.1, not 8.1
I think you accidentally got all figures wrong. Look, here's FMI's predictions for Kronoby RCP 6 for 2085, mean temps
Jan: -0.4C Feb: -0.9C
Mar: 2.1C
Apr: 5.8C
May: 12.0C
June: 16.9C
July: 18.8C
Aug: 16.7C
Sep: 11.8C
Oct: 7.1C
Nov: 3.3C
Dec: 0.8C YEAR: 7.9C
Annual precipitation: 640 mm.
Your figures are completely impossible and I wonder how you came to the conclusion you did.
Mine is RCP 8.5, not RCP 6, and it's for the year 2100, so let's say it's 2086-2115, and it shows a 6'C overall warming compared to 1961-1990, 125 years earlier. Here's the graph for the annual temperature change of the county Umeå is in.  |
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Post by Ariete on Aug 17, 2019 13:31:58 GMT -5
Mine is RCP 8.5, not RCP 6, and it's for the year 2100, so let's say it's 2086-2115, and it shows a 6'C overall warming compared to 1961-1990, 125 years earlier. Here's the graph for the annual temperature change of the county Umeå is in.
As we discussed in the shoutbox there's no way that all months will warm up equally. Daylight, sunshine, sun strength etc does not change.
IDK how different 8.5 is from 6.0, but 15 years doesn't matter to the least.
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Post by Babu on Aug 17, 2019 14:27:02 GMT -5
Mine is RCP 8.5, not RCP 6, and it's for the year 2100, so let's say it's 2086-2115, and it shows a 6'C overall warming compared to 1961-1990, 125 years earlier. Here's the graph for the annual temperature change of the county Umeå is in.
As we discussed in the shoutbox there's no way that all months will warm up equally. Daylight, sunshine, sun strength etc does not change.
IDK how different 8.5 is from 6.0, but 15 years doesn't matter to the least.
As I said in the shoutbox, winter was forecast to warm up more than the other ones. And looking at the graph, 2085 is about 0.3-0.4'C cooler than 2100 if you assume a smoothed average |
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Post by Morningrise on Aug 17, 2019 14:33:20 GMT -5
B. Decent temperatures and precipitation, a bit too wet in the winters for my liking.
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Post by Ariete on Aug 17, 2019 15:05:45 GMT -5
As I said in the shoutbox, winter was forecast to warm up more than the other ones. And looking at the graph, 2085 is about 0.3-0.4'C cooler than 2100 if you assume a smoothed average
You can't seriously believe that for example October will go from 3.8C means to 9.8C means in 80 years. While Kronoby would have a 7.4C.
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