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Post by omegaraptor on Feb 10, 2020 15:48:14 GMT -5
Discuss all atmospheric climate drivers, such as ENSO, PDO, AMO, QBO, MJO, etc here.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2020 17:15:58 GMT -5
ENSO neutral conditions favoured through the NH summer.
ENSO neutral conditions through summer correlate with warm and dry summers in the UK.
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Post by knot on Feb 10, 2020 18:23:41 GMT -5
–AAO (Negative Antarctic Oscillation) on the cards, which will see frontal activity increased:  It is plainly observed just how extreme of a negative phase the AAO has endured in November and December (jointly with the SSW event); which brought record cold and record heat at the same time to Southern Australia in Dec. |
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Post by Steelernation on Feb 11, 2020 15:11:37 GMT -5
No clue what these are or how they work. Someone tell me what means warm + dry in the northeast and I’ll root for that.
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Post by knot on Mar 9, 2020 19:27:59 GMT -5
Looks like the prediction of a –AAO was wrong; +AAO instead:  Explains the extreme northerly/easterly rainfall and painfully mild, stable weather recently. |
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Post by knot on Mar 9, 2020 19:35:05 GMT -5
MJO in a proper set-up (i.e. jointly with +AAO) for early-season Australian rainfall; adequately observed:  |
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Post by trolik on Mar 9, 2020 20:26:06 GMT -5
Looks like the prediction of a –AAO was wrong; +AAO instead: Explains the extreme northerly/easterly rainfall and painfully mild, stable weather recently. looks like it did a huge 180 from early summer |
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Post by omegaraptor on Mar 21, 2020 17:23:35 GMT -5
 Finally a positive PNA after a month of it being negative? GFS ensembles have a very clear warm signal for the PNW starting around March 31 in conjunction with the PNA flip. |
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Post by omegaraptor on Mar 21, 2020 17:32:26 GMT -5
 ENSO model predictions going forward. Neutral seems to be favored going onward, leaning towards weak Niña going into next NH winter? |
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Post by srfoskey on Mar 22, 2020 1:06:22 GMT -5
No clue what these are or how they work. Someone tell me what means warm + dry in the northeast and I’ll root for that. Atmospheric drivers, aka teleconnections, are generally defined by pressure or sea-surface temperature anomalies in different regions of the world. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is defined by where in the Tropics convection is most prominent. The eastern US usually warm in a +AO (Arctic Oscillation), +NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), -PNA (Pacific North American pattern) state. I'm not quite sure about moisture.
Most of them have Wikipedia articles where you can read more about each one.
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Post by knot on Apr 3, 2020 0:15:43 GMT -5
![]() AAO forecast to go strongly negative; gonna be one epic autumn–winter period ahead if it continues!  About bloody time. |
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Post by omegaraptor on Apr 3, 2020 0:21:13 GMT -5
 MJO forecast to move into phases 7 and 8 going forward. |
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Post by antares on Apr 5, 2020 14:55:30 GMT -5
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Post by omegaraptor on Apr 5, 2020 15:16:45 GMT -5
CFS has consistently been the only model showing La Niña. Every other major forecast model including Euro shows neutral conditions continuing. |
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Post by rpvan on Apr 5, 2020 17:35:04 GMT -5
1949/50 repeat?  |
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Post by omegaraptor on Apr 23, 2020 17:28:33 GMT -5
 April 2020 ENSO model plume |
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Post by antares on Apr 23, 2020 17:53:03 GMT -5
hmmm. I sure hope it's not yet another neutral year. Faaack.
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Post by antares on May 7, 2020 11:25:12 GMT -5
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Post by antares on May 19, 2020 12:02:06 GMT -5
La Niña confirmed. No more Modoki El Niño for AJ1013.   |
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2020 12:37:49 GMT -5
La Niña confirmed. No more Modoki El Niño for AJ1013. La Niña can fuck off! |
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