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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on May 19, 2020 12:41:39 GMT -5
La Niña confirmed. No more Modoki El Niño for AJ1013 .   La Niña can fuck off! Why? It does not significantly affect European weather, at least in comparison to Indonesia, Australia, South America, and North America. |
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2020 14:58:02 GMT -5
Why? It does not significantly affect European weather, at least in comparison to Indonesia, Australia, South America, and North America. It tends to give us cooler and wetter than average summers. |
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on May 19, 2020 15:09:38 GMT -5
Why? It does not significantly affect European weather, at least in comparison to Indonesia, Australia, South America, and North America. It tends to give us cooler and wetter than average summers. I highly doubt any effects from it would appear this summer though as it'd still be in neutral territory during summer. Perhaps 2021 summer? We shall see though. I love watching how these ENSO (and other indices) forecasts play out and seeing what the effects are. |
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Post by omegaraptor on May 24, 2020 17:31:32 GMT -5
May 2020 ENSO Plume
Current MJO Forecasts - Euro and GFS
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Post by omegaraptor on Jun 22, 2020 22:20:06 GMT -5
 Major disruption has occurred to the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation). Previously forecast to be easterly for the following boreal winter, the QBO is now set to be westerly. The rare SH SSW event may be to blame for this sudden QBO shift. A similar event occurred in 2016 where the easterly QBO phase was prematurely cut off. PNW winters with La Niña and westerly QBO almost always yield Arctic air and lowland snow, especially in a first year Niña with solar minimum. |
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Post by knot on Jun 25, 2020 19:23:59 GMT -5
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Post by rpvan on Jun 28, 2020 19:41:43 GMT -5
Major disruption has occurred to the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation). Previously forecast to be easterly for the following boreal winter, the QBO is now set to be westerly. The rare SH SSW event may be to blame for this sudden QBO shift. A similar event occurred in 2016 where the easterly QBO phase was prematurely cut off. PNW winters with La Niña and westerly QBO almost always yield Arctic air and lowland snow, especially in a first year Niña with solar minimum. I'd take a '16-17 winter repeat in a heartbeat. Persistently chilly (temps hovering between -10C and 5C) with snow on the ground for most of the winter here in Metro Vancouver. The only thing lacking during that winter was a major arctic blast. Temps never really got below -8C in Vancouver proper or below -12C in the eastern suburbs. However the fact we went over a month with an average temp around freezing was notable as it matched other recent significant winter episodes (December 2008). In fact '08-09 and '16-17 were probably the only recent winters to come close to what we saw around these parts on a more regular basis before the 1990s. |
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Jul 7, 2020 9:48:39 GMT -5
Yessssssss  |
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Jul 16, 2020 13:24:28 GMT -5
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Post by knot on Jul 26, 2020 16:59:37 GMT -5
LWT activity finally making a comeback to the South Indian and South Pacific quarters:  |
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Sept 10, 2020 11:25:35 GMT -5
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Oct 6, 2020 19:03:18 GMT -5
Uhhh guys, it's dipping below -3 now. If that verifies it would be the strongest La Niña on record. Not sure but maybe even the mean line would be the strongest.  |
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Post by AJ1013 on Oct 6, 2020 19:25:04 GMT -5
Uhhh guys, it's dipping below -3 now. If that verifies it would be the strongest La Niña on record. Not sure but maybe even the mean line would be the strongest. Lies. El Niño is coming. |
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Oct 6, 2020 20:52:39 GMT -5
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Oct 13, 2020 0:42:59 GMT -5
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Post by omegaraptor on Dec 27, 2020 20:18:42 GMT -5
 NH SSW on the way. Goodbye polar vortex! |
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