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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2020 7:31:11 GMT -5
Simple question. Will the UK break the 40c barrier this decade?
Theoretically, 850hPa temps could have given temps of 41-42 in June 2019, but winds were not ideal. The record ended up being broken in July 2019, currently standing at 38.7c.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2020 7:37:25 GMT -5
I don't think it will, with the temperatures for the upcoming heatwave being downgraded. I don't think 38.7c will be the record by 2030 though.
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Post by Speagles84 on Aug 3, 2020 8:55:22 GMT -5
No, think it will be possible to hit 100F (upper 30sC) again and more often, but 40C seems very unlikely in my opinion.
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Post by kronan on Aug 3, 2020 9:51:14 GMT -5
No, think it will be possible to hit 100F (upper 30sC) again and more often, but 40C seems very unlikely in my opinion. So did 42.6C in Germany to me just a few years ago. But since we've goten into a new, even more warm climate era after that 1998-2014 hiatus I'm not so sure anymore. I think 40C in London within the next decade is quite possible.
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Post by Benfxmth on Aug 3, 2020 9:55:01 GMT -5
I would say that the UK will reach 100°F again this decade, and approach, tie or break the current record but 40°C is unlikely.
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Post by Steelernation on Aug 3, 2020 13:43:26 GMT -5
It’ll hit 39.9 c.
Seriously I think upper 30s will happen a couple years and I bet the 38.7 will be beaten but 40 might be a stretch, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened though.
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Post by flamingGalah on Aug 3, 2020 17:02:37 GMT -5
Yes, wouldn't be surprised if 40C is reached in the next few years. The real question is if Guildford will reach 50C before 2030.
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Post by knot on Aug 3, 2020 17:23:08 GMT -5
Well if it reportedly reached 40°+ C before in 1808, 1707, and 1513 (which is quite reasonable to accept, given that the Medieval Warm Period was overall much warmer and drier than today, and these readings weren't even from 950 to 1250 CE), then it can do so again—especially with the artificial enhancement of UHI. London's leeward position is perfect for localised heat spikes; that are seldom found elsewhere in the country.
So, I'll give it a 50-50 chance of reaching or surpassing 40° C within the next decade. Pretty fair chance.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2020 6:14:09 GMT -5
Well if it reportedly reached 40°+ C before in 1808, 1707, and 1513 (which is quite reasonable to accept, given that the Medieval Warm Period was overall much warmer and drier than today, and these readings weren't even from 950 to 1250 CE), then it can do so again—especially with the artificial enhancement of UHI. London's leeward position is perfect for localised heat spikes; that are seldom found elsewhere in the country. So, I'll give it a 50-50 chance of reaching or surpassing 40° C within the next decade. Pretty fair chance. It hasn't hit 40c before. The extreme heat and cold values on the wiki page are wilko-nonsense. Officially nowhere in London had been above 38.1c or below -16.1c. |
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Post by Ariete on Aug 4, 2020 22:35:25 GMT -5
No. A cold epoch will hit the UK and London will see dublinesque record highs.  |
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Post by Dean York (Old) on Aug 8, 2020 1:42:58 GMT -5
Yes, I think it will happen. High 90's to 100F seems to be happening more and more often.
Even here in York, we reached nearly 36C last summer, and if it didn't cloud over at around 15:00 that day, we would've undoubtedly gone higher.
If you look at the hottest days ever in the UK, most of them have been recorded in the last 17 years.
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Post by jgtheone on Aug 8, 2020 3:02:49 GMT -5
Not sure, I'd say upper 30s (39C) but like the others, if 40C is reached I wouldn't be too shocked.
When it does happen I'm sure they will compare it to Baghdad or some shit.
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Post by Beercules on Aug 8, 2020 8:32:13 GMT -5
London's forecast atm is a tall order for Melbourne, and would even be a decent effort for Adelaide. I think there is a real chance of reaching 40C in London, things just have to align perfectly, that is all it'll take. It can reach 40C tomorrow, if only only all the ducks lined up perfectly.
If it does happen, just ignore the Daily Whale sensationalism.
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Post by jgtheone on Aug 8, 2020 9:02:02 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure this is fairly achievable for Adelaide and even Melbourne lol, counting the 36C or whatever yesterday. We've had like 4 days of 42C in a row before, which is probably about as rare as what's happening right now in London  |
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Post by cawfeefan on May 25, 2023 21:56:00 GMT -5
Congrats to those 7 people who called it
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Post by B87 on May 31, 2023 8:56:52 GMT -5
I asked ChatGPT to predict the next occurrences of 40c in London in the 21st century.
2035
2054
2056
2058
2077 - this one said it would be the hottest day of the 21st century, lol
2098
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Post by AJ1013 on May 31, 2023 8:58:15 GMT -5
Next question is when will 50C be reached.
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Post by B87 on May 31, 2023 8:59:26 GMT -5
Next question is when will 50C be reached. It already has been numerous times, by easthome's wall thermometer. Realistically, I can see the absolute ceiling for temperatures in the UK under a completely ideal situation for heat, being around 42-43c. |
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Post by Ethereal on Jun 2, 2023 19:07:28 GMT -5
This thread has aged well
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Post by CRISPR on Feb 3, 2024 23:28:37 GMT -5
Coningsby based 40.3ºC confirm
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