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Post by edmountain on Oct 29, 2020 9:49:25 GMT -5
Here are the current forecast highs from EC on November 2 for some select cities in Alberta and Saskatchewan: Prince Alberta 15 °C Saskatoon 18 °C Regina 20 °C Fort McMurray 11 °C Edmonton 19 °C Calgary 24 °C Lethbridge 24 °C Take these with a grain of salt--EC has a habit of dropping model-generated numbers into their forecasts without any human oversight but there's certainly a strong probability of very warm temperatures regardless. Not surprisingly, EC has revised the forecasts for Monday down significantly. I wish they wouldn't take the number straight out of the models without any oversight. Calling for all-time monthly highs 5 or more days in advance should not be taken so lightly. Here are the updated forecasts: Prince Albert: 12 °C Saskatoon: 14 °C Regina: 14 °C Edmonton Int'l: 15 °C Calgaru: 16 °C Lethbridge: 18 °C Still a significant warm spell--now with realistic forecasts to match. Cool down--possibly major--expected to follow. This GFS solution would bring near-blizzard conditions to southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ |
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Oct 29, 2020 10:41:29 GMT -5
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Post by chesternz on Oct 29, 2020 10:43:23 GMT -5
Christchurch managed almost 30 C already:  |
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Oct 29, 2020 11:00:15 GMT -5
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Post by kronan on Oct 29, 2020 11:29:37 GMT -5
Almost -20C in Nikkaluokta last night. Sweden's lowest temperature this autumn.  |
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Post by Babu on Oct 29, 2020 12:52:58 GMT -5
Utklippan still has only had 4 days in total with a mean below 10'C, and just 12 days that have even dipped below 10'C.  |
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Post by Speagles84 on Oct 29, 2020 13:23:38 GMT -5
Fall Foliage season 2020 is over with the exception of Subtropical SE Pennsylvania.
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Post by Ariete on Oct 29, 2020 13:24:46 GMT -5
Utklippan still has only had 4 days in total with a mean below 10'C, and just 12 days that have even dipped below 10'C.
Couldn't you just post locations where people actually live in, and not rediculous lighthouses in the middle of the sea? Like Malmö or Stockholm? That would be more informative for sure.  |
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Post by edmountain on Oct 29, 2020 13:42:06 GMT -5
Utklippan still has only had 4 days in total with a mean below 10'C, and just 12 days that have even dipped below 10'C.
Couldn't you just post locations where people actually live in, and not rediculous lighthouses in the middle of the sea? Like Malmö or Stockholm? That would be more informative for sure. It looks like it should be about the same as Copenhagen maybe. How far from average are these data actually? |
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Post by Ariete on Oct 29, 2020 13:47:24 GMT -5
It looks like it should be about the same as Copenhagen maybe. How far from average are these data actually?
Ogimet's data is gathered from what national weather weather services report to the WMO. For most of Europe they are mostly spot on accurate, except for some glitches.
My point was that why does Babu choose places like Utklippan to present, when it's literally an automatic lighthouse on a very small uninhabited island in the middle of the sea: goo.gl/maps/RdKDZjVTRySdJpGp6 |
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Post by edmountain on Oct 29, 2020 13:55:22 GMT -5
Ogimet's data is gathered from what national weather weather services report to the WMO. For most of Europe they are mostly spot on accurate, except for some glitches. My point was that why does Babu choose places like Utklippan to present, when it's literally an automatic lighthouse on a very small uninhabited island in the middle of the sea: goo.gl/maps/RdKDZjVTRySdJpGp6Well presumably because he's looking for a subtropical paradise in the Baltic. |
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Post by Nidaros on Oct 29, 2020 13:55:52 GMT -5
Karasjok (coldest low ever in Norway) started October very warm compared to average, then came the cold near mid-month. The mean aftr 28 days is 1.8C, still running 2.7C above the old 61-90 avg. First day with avg mean below freezing is Oct 12th. using that normal.  Now compare with Svolvaer airport in Lofoten, also in the Arctic. Airport is small and close to the town. Mean 7.6C after 28 days of October. For comparison, Stavanger has mean 10.2C  |
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Post by Ariete on Oct 29, 2020 14:42:02 GMT -5
Well presumably because he's looking for a subtropical paradise in the Baltic.
I know he is.
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Post by Babu on Oct 29, 2020 14:48:44 GMT -5
It looks like it should be about the same as Copenhagen maybe. How far from average are these data actually? Ogimet's data is gathered from what national weather weather services report to the WMO. For most of Europe they are mostly spot on accurate, except for some glitches. My point was that why does Babu choose places like Utklippan to present, when it's literally an automatic lighthouse on a very small uninhabited island in the middle of the sea: goo.gl/maps/RdKDZjVTRySdJpGp6It's not the warmest or mildest station, it's just the one that usually has the most redicilus lows making it look wonky. Populated Falsterbo has had a similarly warm October, it's just not as stable with the lows making it look less rediculous. |
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Post by Ariete on Oct 29, 2020 15:53:15 GMT -5
It's not the warmest or mildest station, it's just the one that usually has the most redicilus lows making it look wonky. Populated Falsterbo has had a similarly warm October, it's just not as stable with the lows making it look less rediculous.
I think you have demonstrated the rediculousness of the SMHI seasons well before this.
Has Malmö had a freeze yet? We don't know! Maybe you should show us!
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Post by Babu on Oct 29, 2020 16:29:45 GMT -5
It's not the warmest or mildest station, it's just the one that usually has the most redicilus lows making it look wonky. Populated Falsterbo has had a similarly warm October, it's just not as stable with the lows making it look less rediculous.
I think you have demonstrated the rediculousness of the SMHI seasons well before this.
Has Malmö had a freeze yet? We don't know! Maybe you should show us!
I'm just personally more fascinated by mild weather in my country than cold weather. I get excited about warm weather, and I'm more likely to share something that I find exciting than something that makes me feel "ugh". But to answer your question: Yes actually, Malmö did manage to dip below freezing actually. A -0.8'C on the 16th. Lund had a low of 2.8'C that day (though they later recorded -0.3'C on the 19th). Stockholm Obs almost got a freeze with 0.1'C on the 20th. Bromma airport managed -3.7'C that day, and have had three other freezes. Gothenburg's station has yet to have an official freezing temperature, but they've been extremely close with a low of 0.0'C on the 19th. |
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Post by Ariete on Oct 29, 2020 16:40:06 GMT -5
I'm just personally more fascinated by mild weather in my country than cold weather. I get excited about warm weather, and I'm more likely to share something that I find exciting than something that makes me feel "ugh". But to answer your question: Yes actually, Malmö did manage to dip below freezing actually. A -0.8'C on the 16th. Lund had a low of 2.8'C that day (though they later recorded -0.3'C on the 19th). Stockholm Obs almost got a freeze with 0.1'C on the 20th. Bromma airport managed -3.7'C that day, and have had three other freezes. Gothenburg's station has yet to have an official freezing temperature, but they've been extremely close with a low of 0.0'C on the 19th.
Well, being October I prefer warmer weather as well. But why pick a skerry where you cannot even move to as your comfort food? I don't post Kökar Bogskär's stats just for emotional comfort.
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Post by Babu on Oct 29, 2020 16:51:18 GMT -5
I'm just personally more fascinated by mild weather in my country than cold weather. I get excited about warm weather, and I'm more likely to share something that I find exciting than something that makes me feel "ugh". But to answer your question: Yes actually, Malmö did manage to dip below freezing actually. A -0.8'C on the 16th. Lund had a low of 2.8'C that day (though they later recorded -0.3'C on the 19th). Stockholm Obs almost got a freeze with 0.1'C on the 20th. Bromma airport managed -3.7'C that day, and have had three other freezes. Gothenburg's station has yet to have an official freezing temperature, but they've been extremely close with a low of 0.0'C on the 19th.
Well, being October I prefer warmer weather as well. But why pick a skerry where you cannot even move to as your comfort food? I don't post Kökar Bogskär's stats just for emotional comfort.
I like looking at Bogskär's stats |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2020 18:26:48 GMT -5
It looks like it should be about the same as Copenhagen maybe. How far from average are these data actually?
Ogimet's data is gathered from what national weather weather services report to the WMO. For most of Europe they are mostly spot on accurate, except for some glitches.
My point was that why does Babu choose places like Utklippan to present, when it's literally an automatic lighthouse on a very small uninhabited island in the middle of the sea: goo.gl/maps/RdKDZjVTRySdJpGp6That's like using Bishop Rock to represent the UK. Bishop Rock has a record low of 1c. |
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Post by edmountain on Oct 29, 2020 20:22:59 GMT -5
Yes. GFS in particular wants it to get cold here but usually it's pure fiction beyond 120 hours. The ECMWF numbers posted below look much more believable. |
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