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Post by Speagles84 on Dec 23, 2020 11:05:25 GMT -5
Cold Christmas Day in Erzurum, Turkey (average December high is -1°C):
Looks colder than Gole |
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Post by Ariete on Dec 23, 2020 12:08:12 GMT -5
Färken öäth, could do with some more snow, but looks way better than the early models.
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Post by aabc123 on Dec 23, 2020 16:32:57 GMT -5
Here is the weather forecast by wo, the old-established weather forecast site of this forum. I expect however that there will be a little more hours of sunshine than they say.  |
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Post by Nidaros on Dec 23, 2020 18:15:55 GMT -5
Not much snow, maybe a few flakes tomorrow on Chritsmas Eve. Getting colder Christmas Day and Boxing day before the mild weather returns, then maybe colder again  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2020 20:11:05 GMT -5
Donar That is great Christmas weather for Erzurum. Erzurum is a city in Turkey. Erzurum is a city in Erzurum province. Erzurum province is in eastern Turkey. Erzurum is not as cold as Göle. Göle is a city in Ardahan province. Göle is the coldest city in Turkey. Göle.
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Post by AJ1013 on Dec 23, 2020 20:11:17 GMT -5
Interesting weather for the Christmas holiday here. Warm with thunderstorms on Christmas eve as a powerful cold front pushes through then cold and sunny on Christmas day. Tonight: Partly Cloudy with a low of 70F Christmas Eve Day: High of 79F with scattered thunderstorms Christmas Eve night: Windy and clearing with a low of 53F Christmas Day: Cold, sunny, and windy with a high of 58F Christmas Night: Cold, windy, and clear with a low of 41F Boxing Day: Cold and sunny with a high of 58F  |
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Post by Benfxmth on Dec 23, 2020 20:13:34 GMT -5
I'm in for some fun, shit's gonna get real with this nor'easter...   Hourly forecast:  Forecast discussion:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...Subtle changes are occuring in our
atmosphere now that are signaling a period of very active
weather Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. As high pressure
continues to drift away from our area overnight, winds will
continue to veer from the east to the south overnight. In
addition, an expansive area of high based stratocumulus clouds
evident over the ocean just south of the capes, are slowly
beginning to drift north and inland and should be well onshore
by late evening. This is indicative of warm air advection and
moisture advection now taking place in the atmosphere which will
eventually result in isolated showers developing toward dawn,
especially near the coast. With the change in wind direction,
increasing clouds, and low level mixing, temps will likely show
a non diurnal trend, increasing after midnight as lows occur
this evening under better radiational cooling conditions. The
increase in temperatures will be most pronounced along the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...A strong cold front will approach from
the west Christmas Eve, and move through the area early
Christmas morning, bringing with it very strong winds, heavy
rain, strong thunderstorms, and coastal flooding. After this
front moves through the coldest air of the season so far will
move into Eastern NC with highs and lows well below average
Friday and Saturday. Moderating high pressure then moves
overhead Sunday through early next week.
Christmas Eve...not a huge change to the previous forecast but
increased confidence in the possibility of severe weather with
SPC placing the entire area in an enhanced risk for severe
weather, and the tornado probability increased to 10%.
On Thursday, deep southerly flow with develop and strengthen
through the day, bringing in warmer and more moist air. Temps
will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s, with dewpoints also
rising into the 60s. This will lead to some scattered showers
developing by Thursday morning and then becoming more numerous
through the day as better lift approaches with the front. In
addition as MLCAPES climb slightly late in the day, a few
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out after 18Z. 0-6 KM Bulk shear
values will be above 50 kts by this time, but the greater threat
appears to be after 21Z, as instability increases to match the
impressive shear profiles during the evening. PWATs will surge
above 1.5" later Christmas Eve, and combined with marginal
instability will produce some fairly heavy rainfall rates,
though the progressive nature of the front will limit any flood
threat. Nevertheless, expect storm total precip to range from
1-2" with heaviest amounts near the coast.
By Christmas evening, winds will become really strong just ahead of
the front and now have winds 30-40 mph across the coastal counties
with 45-55 mph expected. A wind advisory remains in effect for
our coastal areas and a high wind warning for Ocracoke and
Hatteras Island. We may expand the wind advisory slightly to
account for the west of Carteret, Onslow and other counties
bordering our waters. We increased gusts area wide to 30-35 +,
as BUFKIT momentum transfer profiles support gusty conditions
Thursday night. Another byproduct of these strong winds wil be
the potential for coastal flooding, which is highlighted in a
section below.
With such a strong, dynamic environment in place, severe weather
potential is increasing, as high res models are indicating decent
(for December) instability between 500 and 1000 J/kg advecting into
the area Thursday evening. Normally this would only produce a
conditional threat, however the strength of the lower tropospheric
winds with this system and long, looping hodographs may compensate
for somewhat lacking instability. Modeled reflectivity shows the
severe threat window likely beginning as early as Thursday
afternoon, with the potential for discrete supercells out ahead of
the front. Instability though at this time is lacking and highest
across the far southwest. The more widespread threat however comes
with the cold front Thursday evening as MLCAPES climb above 500
J/KG. High res guidance continue to suggest a strong squall line
will likely move across the area overnight into early Friday
morning. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are expected to
be the main threats with 0-6 KM bulk shear values of between 60 and
70 KTS during the peak instability! As mentioned above the
entire area is now in an enhanced threat, with damaging wind
probs from SPC up to 15% and tornado threat up to 10%.
Christmas Day...Behind the frontal passage, early Christmas Day,
temperatures will plummet some 20-30 degrees in a few hours as very
cold air moves into the area. Very strong CAA will continue through
Christmas Day, with temps expected to fall through the day reaching
the freezing mark by early evening. As low level heights crater
under the upper level trough Christmas night, the coldest temps of
the season so far are expected with lows reaching the lower 20s and
possibly upper teens inland, and the mid to upper 20s closer to the
coast including the Outer Banks.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM Wed...A strong cold front will approach from the
west Christmas Eve, and move through the area early Christmas
morning, bringing with it very strong winds, heavy rain,
possible strong thunderstorms, and potential coastal flooding.
After this front moves through the coldest air of the season so
far will move into Eastern NC with highs and lows well below
average Friday and Saturday. Moderating high pressure then moves
overhead Sunday through early next week.
Christmas Eve through Christmas Day...A deep upper trough will
approach from the west early Thursday and will produce a surface
low which will track up the western Appalachians and into
southern Canada. A very strong baroclinic and fairly slow moving
cold front will push east through the day reaching Eastern NC
late on Christmas Eve.
As the pressure gradient increases between this system and the
departing strong high pressure, deep southerly flow with develop
and strengthen through the day, bringing in warmer and more
moist air. Temps will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s, with
dewpoints also rising into the 60s. This will lead to some
scattered showers developing by Thursday morning and then
becoming more numerous through the day as better lift approaches
with the front. PWATs will surge above 1.5" later Christmas Eve,
and combined with marginal instability will produce some fairly
heavy rainfall rates, though the progressive nature of the front
will limit any flood threat. Nevertheless, expect storm total
precip to range from 1-2" with heaviest amounts near the coast.
By the evening winds will become really strong just ahead of the
front and now have winds 30-40 mph across the coastal counties
with 45-55 mph expected. A wind advisory has been issued for
NOBX, Hyde, Dare, and Carteret counties, while a High Wind
Warning has been issued for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island
where the best potential exists for wind gusts in excess of 55
mph for several hours. Another byproduct of these strong winds
wil be the potential for coastal flooding, which is highlighted
in a section below.
With such a strong, dynamic environment in place, severe
weather potential is increasing, as high res models are
indicating decent (for December) instability between 500 and
1000 J/kg advecting into the area. Normally this would only
produce a conditional threat, however the strength of the lower
tropospheric winds with this system and long, looping hodographs
may compensate for somewhat lacking instability. Modeled
reflectivity shows the severe threat window likely beginning
sometime Thursday afternoon, with the potential for discrete
supercells out ahead of the front. Then with the cold front, a
strong squall line will likely move across the area overnight
into early Friday morning. Damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes are expected to be the main threats.
Behind the frontal passage overnight, temperatures will plummet
some 20-30 degrees in a few hours as very cold air moves into
the area. Very strong CAA will continue Christmas Day, with
temps expected to fall through the day reaching the freezing
mark by early evening. As low level heights crater under the
upper level trough Christmas night, the coldest temps of the
season so far are expected with lows reaching the lower 20s and
possibly upper teens inland, and the mid to upper 20s closer to
the coast including the Outer Banks.
Saturday through Tuesday...After a frigid start Saturday
morning, temps will climb only into the mid to upper 30s for
highs, some 20 degrees below average. Moderating high pressure
will move in from the SW early Sunday, leading to continued dry
weather Sunday and Monday, with a rebound to near normal
temperatures. There is potential for a cold front to cross the
area Tuesday, but as of now it looks to be mostly moisture
starved.
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Post by MET on Dec 23, 2020 20:14:37 GMT -5
Christmas Day here will be cold, with mostly cloudy conditions under high pressure, no rain/snow and no thunderstorm risk.  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2020 20:25:56 GMT -5
According to WBAY's website:
Christmas Eve (tomorrow): 20/12 (-7/-11), mostly cloudy
Christmas Day: 24/16 (-5/-9), partly cloudy
New Year's Eve: 32/19 (0/-7), chance of snow
New Year's Day: 25/10 (-5/-12), slight chance of snow
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Post by Crunch41 on Dec 23, 2020 20:31:53 GMT -5
The cold front coming to the east coast is here. Today reached 55F/13C at 4pm, now 43F/6C at 7pm with wind. Earlier the forecast was for rain then snow but it might miss completely now. There was some light rain or very heavy dew this morning.
Tomorrow will be much colder with wind and a high of 16F/-9C, easily the coldest day this season. Wintry but brown on Christmas. No snow.
Madison (CHADison) to the west got snow instead of rain during the main storm this month and the forecast for them is even colder with only a few highs above freezing. It should keep snow the rest of the month giving it 20 days of snow cover while I'm at zero so far.
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Post by Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Dec 23, 2020 20:56:30 GMT -5
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Post by Steelernation on Dec 23, 2020 21:18:13 GMT -5
Here’s my hourly forecast for the holiday:  Not too fun here, no heavy snow, no wind, no storms just heavy boring rain to light snow. |
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Post by jgtheone on Dec 23, 2020 22:26:43 GMT -5
Based on OCF, it'll be 10C/20C for Christmas Day and 14C/28C for New Year's Day. No rain on either day so far.
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Post by segfault1361 on Dec 23, 2020 22:57:13 GMT -5
Looks like a White Christmas is saved for Toronto at the last minute after the annual customary pre-Christmas warmup (pretty warm all week, culminating with 8C on Christmas Eve before dropping like a rock in the evening). Still... having a White Christmas for the Toronto Area while having a green and rainy Christmas for Ottawa and Montreal is as 2020 as it gets.  |
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Post by srfoskey on Dec 23, 2020 23:22:42 GMT -5
We no longer have a chance of snow on Christmas Eve/early Christmas Day sadly, but the temperature forecast hasn't changed much. We're under a slight risk for severe weather on Christmas Eve. Looks like a White Christmas is saved for Toronto at the last minute after the annual customary pre-Christmas warmup (pretty warm all week, culminating with 8C on Christmas Eve before dropping like a rock in the evening). Still... having a White Christmas for the Toronto Area while having a green and rainy Christmas for Ottawa and Montreal is as 2020 as it gets. Do Ottawa and Montreal not have snowcover from before? |
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Post by segfault1361 on Dec 23, 2020 23:43:12 GMT -5
We no longer have a chance of snow on Christmas Eve/early Christmas Day sadly, but the temperature forecast hasn't changed much. We're under a slight risk for severe weather on Christmas Eve. Looks like a White Christmas is saved for Toronto at the last minute after the annual customary pre-Christmas warmup (pretty warm all week, culminating with 8C on Christmas Eve before dropping like a rock in the evening). Still... having a White Christmas for the Toronto Area while having a green and rainy Christmas for Ottawa and Montreal is as 2020 as it gets. Do Ottawa and Montreal not have snowcover from before? Ottawa and Montreal have 2-3cm of snow after an uncharacteristic dry December. Tomorrow it'll hit 8-10C with 30mm of rain overnight, no chance that sticks around |
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Post by MET on Dec 26, 2020 8:35:22 GMT -5
NYD here is looking very cold, showing dry, but once the cold is in place snow will likely follow.  |
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Post by Morningrise on Dec 26, 2020 10:24:50 GMT -5
Granby, Quebec reached a ridiculously mild 18C on Christmas Day, surely one of the mildest Christmas Days in Canadian history.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2020 13:18:16 GMT -5
Granby, Quebec reached a ridiculously mild 18C on Christmas Day, surely one of the mildest Christmas Days in Canadian history. Holy crap.  The front seems to have reached them, though, as it's -3'C there right now. |
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Post by Steelernation on Dec 26, 2020 14:16:57 GMT -5
Here’s what ended up happening:
12/24: High 53 Low 37 Precip: 0.51”
12/25: High 37 Low 23 Precip: 0.28” Snow: 0.3”
No white Christmas this year, the snow all came after 10 PM.
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