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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2021 11:44:09 GMT -5
This is purely just my guess of what the the temperature normals may look like far into the future. I personally dislike this climate because of its lousy winters that kinda remind me of Denver's winters. What do you guys think?  |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2021 11:56:46 GMT -5
You think Calgary is gonna become Koppen subtropical, eh?
C.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2021 12:47:27 GMT -5
You think Calgary is gonna become Koppen subtropical, eh? C. I just think that we have no idea how crazy our weather and climates are going to become 50+ years from now. I'm hopeful though that we can stop it from happening. |
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Post by Morningrise on Mar 19, 2021 12:51:30 GMT -5
It's a bit hard to say without the precipitation and sunshine, but the temperature profile is a solid B for me. Would be better with a lower diurnal range, particularly in winter.
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Post by Ariete on Mar 19, 2021 13:36:36 GMT -5
60+ years is not that far away, and I doubt the changes will be that radical.
Helsinki has roughly the same temperature profile as Calgary, and I did a weather box once for the year of 2085 based on FMI predictions how the temperatures will change with the medium warming scenario. It looks like this:
In the 81-10 Normals Calgary has an annual high of 10.8C and a low of -1.9C, while Helsinki Airport's averages are 9.1C and 1.4C. In mean temperatures Helsinki is 0.9C warmer.
Now here in this scenario, the mean temp has risen by 3.4C, from 5.3C to 8.7C, which is a lot, because 2085 is just 64 years away. That Calgary's mean temp would rise by 6C, is just fanciful. While the FMI predictions shouldn't be taken as gospel, it is still based on actual data.
And when making predictions, the thing is that temperatures will not rise exponentially, and they won't be even in every month. The amount of daylight, sunshine and UV index, and geographical positions will not change. As you can see in the Helsinki box, January has warmed up with 5C and is similar to Prague in the 81-10 dataset. Meanwhile October's mean has risen only by 2.6C. That is because of geographpy, sunshine and daylength. Additionally, there will still be cooler than average months, even years. The 2010s were the warmest in Helsinki's history, but it still saw colder than average winters and summers, which mutes the averages.
Just something to keep in mind.
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Post by MET on Mar 19, 2021 13:45:50 GMT -5
Very optimistic. I'd give this a D+.
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Post by ๐๐ฟMรถrรถn๐๐ฟ on Mar 19, 2021 14:11:08 GMT -5
The problem with these types of scenarios is that not every month is warming in every location, and if they are all increasing, certainly not all at the same rates. I will be creating some impending ice age climates, for balance.  |
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Post by Benfxmth on Mar 19, 2021 14:24:58 GMT -5
Doubt it'll warm up that quickly, even if you take account into the fact that land warms faster than the ocean, but I give it a C. Much better than the real Calgary.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2021 14:34:57 GMT -5
You think Calgary is gonna become Koppen subtropical, eh? C. I just think that we have no idea how crazy our weather and climates are going to become 50+ years from now. I'm hopeful though that we can stop it from happening. I don't think it's going to be that much different than it is today. Maybe a degree warmer as an annual average but I really don't think it'll be anywhere near this much warmer in this short of a time. Remember it's 2021 already; you can't be making your far-future predictions for 2020 anymore, and even 2100 is within the lifespan of a good percentage of babies born today. Ariete I don't think the change by then will even be THAT drastic, and that's a lot less of a jump than in OP's Calgary. |
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Post by Ariete on Mar 19, 2021 15:21:33 GMT -5
I just think that we have no idea how crazy our weather and climates are going to become 50+ years from now. I'm hopeful though that we can stop it from happening. I don't think it's going to be that much different than it is today. Maybe a degree warmer as an annual average but I really don't think it'll be anywhere near this much warmer in this short of a time. Remember it's 2021 already; you can't be making your far-future predictions for 2020 anymore, and even 2100 is within the lifespan of a good percentage of babies born today. Ariete I don't think the change by then will even be THAT drastic, and that's a lot less of a jump than in OP's Calgary.
The mean temp difference between Helsinki Airport between 81-10 and 91-20 was 0.5C and between 71-00 and 91-20 1.4C. So 1+C in 2085 seems quite a bit of an understatement.
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Post by nei on Mar 19, 2021 15:23:46 GMT -5
The problem with these types of scenarios is that not every month is warming in every location, and if they are all increasing, certainly not all at the same rates. I will be creating some impending ice age climates, for balance. seemed like the idea is warmer Calgary = Denver. I don't think that's exactly right, but maybe roughly makes sense. But with its higher latitude, even with a warm-up not going to look quite lot of Denver (ignoring that's a huge amount of warming). |
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Post by Steelernation on Mar 19, 2021 15:30:19 GMT -5
Yeah, nah. That ainโt happening.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2021 15:37:54 GMT -5
I guess my protection is very off of what it should be. Thanks for critiquing my climate. I think I learned a thing or two today from Ariete |
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Post by Ariete on Mar 19, 2021 15:41:14 GMT -5
I guess my protection is very off of what it should be. Thanks for critiquing my climate. I think I learned a thing or two today from Ariete
No problem. Always happy to help when I can.
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Post by deneb78 on Mar 19, 2021 17:40:46 GMT -5
Better than Calgary is currently but still lousy. E grade.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2021 18:40:41 GMT -5
I kinda based my data on the 1940-1970 normals for Calgary as well, seeing that January had an average high of 22.5ยฐF and the 1980-2010 normals having an average high of 30.4ยฐF for Calgary, which is around an 8ยฐF increase. So January having an average high of 42ยฐF in my new normals is not too far off. I would change it around though and put the new average high maybe around 36-38ยฐF.
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Post by knot on Mar 19, 2021 19:43:35 GMT -5
G for Gorebull Warming Fake Data.
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Post by omegaraptor on Mar 20, 2021 19:00:43 GMT -5
Do you really think Calgary will gain 6ยฐC in annual mean?
Just gonna say... 6ยฐC is the difference in mean temp between Portland and Bakersfield.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2021 20:43:59 GMT -5
Do you really think Calgary will gain 6ยฐC in annual mean? Just gonna say... 6ยฐC is the difference in mean temp between Portland and Bakersfield. I know, I made an error of judgment. |
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Post by psychedamike24 on Mar 21, 2021 18:57:21 GMT -5
Would have to see record highs/lows, sunshine hours, and other stats. But the year-round temperature profile looks a little better than current Calgary. Do you really think Calgary will gain 6ยฐC in annual mean? Just gonna say... 6ยฐC is the difference in mean temp between Portland and Bakersfield. I would expect Calgary to warm by more than 6 C if the planet warms by more than 3.5 C or so in the next 100 years. It's pretty far north and pretty far inland. |
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