NH Winter/SH Summer 2021-2022 Discussion Thread

Still roastingly hot in coastal Western Australia.
Roebourne has had a week of temps in the low to mid 40c's.

And coastal locations surrounded on 3 sides by water Shark Bay / Denham as well as coastal Carnarvon reporting temps in the low 40c's

At the other ( arse ) end of Australia, Maatsuyker Ialand Lighthouse has experienced a very balmy summer month of February !

And today....9.7c at 2.00pm.....fuck that ! lol.

Storm cells central western NSW

Currently in Naples, Florida. Mostly sunny and pretty warm here today, with a high/low of 86/64. Averages for this time of year are around 78/59, so a good bit warmer than normal. Weather looks perfect for anything outdoors, like 83/65 and sunny everyday 

Very wet month so far, 96 mm here already - Hamburg even recorded above 170 mm so far.

Cyclone Potential Increasing For Australian Region.
( source: Weatherzone )



There are signs that the tropics will reawaken over the coming week, with potential for two tropical low pressure systems or cyclones forming in the Australian region.

Despite La Niña, Australia has been having a relatively quiet tropical cyclone season so far. Since the start of November, there have only been four cyclones named inside Australia’s area of responsibility. This is well below the seasonal average of 11-12. The last tropical cyclone named in the Australian region was Tiffany, which first formed on January 8, well over a month ago.

This run without any new tropical cyclones could be about to end though, with the monsoon trough becoming active over northern Australia this week and the Madden-Julian Oscillation moving over the Maritime Continent (north of Australia). Both of these features are known to cause an increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity.

A number of forecast models suggest that two tropical lows may develop near northern Australia later this week, one to the north of WA and the other somewhere around the Gulf of Carpentaria or northern Coral Sea.

At this stage, it is too early to know exactly where, when and how much these low pressure systems will develop. However, there is enough model agreement to suggest that the two low pressure systems may move into environments that are favourable for tropical cyclone development near Australia, most likely towards the end of this week or early next week.

The map below shows one model's forecast for Sunday, February 27, with a low pressure system or cyclone in the Coral Sea and off the northwest shelf of Australia.


With a large degree of uncertainty at play, communities and industries based in northern WA, the NT’s Top End and anywhere from northern to southeast QLD should closely monitor the latest forecasts and tropical cyclone advisories during the next fortnight.

Tropical cyclone activity typically peaks in the Australian region during February and March due to an abundance of warm water around the continent. Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than usual around most of northern Australia, which should assist in the development of any low pressure systems in the next fortnight.

Image: Sea surface temperature anomaly (deg C) on Monday, February 21, showing abnormally warm water surrounding northern Australia.

first summer day since the 16th. 16.0C low / 35.1C high

the month MTD is a lame 15.5/31.3C , well below average , mostly owing to the gay fuck 25-27C highs and 11C lows over last week. All the heat went to a crappy insular village 3000 lightyears west of here

according to the forecast, the highs will end up below avg (slight downgrades in the latest update, ofcourse, as per usual), and the lows might scrape it. A couple of downgrades there aswell , i.e. a 20C low is now 17C, as per fucken usual

Despite that, the forecast is overall reasonable (just downgrades that give me a heart malfunction), 31-35C days until Farch 1, and 17-20C lows, better than most of this Fuckuary


Another fuckuary to add to the compost bin, 3rd one in a row, WOW WEE

Had warmest February min temp on record yesterday - low was 72F. High was 81F. Much cooler today behind front that came thru after midnight. Didn't get past 51F this afternoon. Sharp temp gradient to my south with Lafayette, LA reaching 83F today. 

Very warm temps in the Southern U.S. yesterday.