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Post by Benfxmth on Jul 14, 2022 11:02:37 GMT -5
The potential for a heat wave in NW Europe this weekend has been a hot topic lately, but, I'll have to call out on these BS WeatherOnline forecasts. Example from today:  GFS output:  In this 06Z GFS run, max temps are in the 101-104°F range, a difference vs. WO's forecast for London by a factor of 6-7°F vs. the latest GFS run, thus, WO clearly differs from GFS output temp-wise, though generally by a factor of 2-3°F. Bottom line is, that, my advice to everyone is: do NOT treat WeatherOnline as an accurate forecasting service over all others—instead, use the more accurate, official, better forecasts, like Met Office, Meteo France, NWS, BoM, etc.. |
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Post by Ariete on Jul 14, 2022 11:22:06 GMT -5
It doesn't. Off yerself.
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Post by dunnowhattoputhere on Jul 14, 2022 11:29:07 GMT -5
GFS output shows 41C here on Tuesday whereas WeatherOnline ‘only’ shows 37C, so for Leeds the WO forecast is actually cooler than the raw GFS data. In fact, the WO forecast for Leeds is virtually identical to the BBC forecast (showing 36C on Tuesday) and only a bit warmer than the Met Office (showing 35C).
43C for London on Monday seems very unlikely but 40C for large parts of England remains possible on Tuesday.
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Post by Strewthless on Jul 14, 2022 11:41:57 GMT -5
Being jealous of a forecast doesn't make it incorrect.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2022 13:05:06 GMT -5
WO showing 40C for York on Tuesday, GFS showing 41C. I can't believe how close we are to Tuesday, and the models still forecasting such extreme heat here.
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Post by Steelernation on Jul 14, 2022 13:18:44 GMT -5
Seems to work well for Europe but it’s inaccurate for the US and I’d imagine other non-European places.
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Post by Benfxmth on Jul 14, 2022 13:38:14 GMT -5
Seems to work well for Europe No, just no (at least from my experience). I've seen it forecast 77-78°F lows in hyperstable Rome (example at the end of July 2020: cdweather.boards.net/post/133518/thread) for instance, which didn't materialize at all (actual lows were in the 72-73°F range lol). |
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Post by Ariete on Jul 14, 2022 14:10:43 GMT -5
No, just no (at least from my experience). I've seen it forecast 77-78°F lows in hyperstable Rome (example at the end of July 2020: cdweather.boards.net/post/133518/thread) for instance, which didn't materialize at all (actual lows were in the 72-73°F range lol).
Ok, so because it's not always 100% on point, it cannot be trusted ever?
How can you trust any site or model then?
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Post by Benfxmth on Jul 14, 2022 14:36:01 GMT -5
No, just no (at least from my experience). I've seen it forecast 77-78°F lows in hyperstable Rome (example at the end of July 2020: cdweather.boards.net/post/133518/thread) for instance, which didn't materialize at all (actual lows were in the 72-73°F range lol). Ok, so because it's not always 100% on point, it cannot be trusted ever? How can you trust any site or model then?
Obviously no weather forecasting site or model is 100% accurate, or that it can't be trusted. My issue is that WO forecasts those wildly warm (or cold) temps (like as posted in OP) which don't materialize without factoring in past climatology, while claiming to be a weather forecasting site. Might as well use (In)AccuWeather. |
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Post by Ariete on Jul 14, 2022 14:44:28 GMT -5
Obviously no weather forecasting site or model is 100% accurate, or that it can't be trusted. My issue is that WO forecasts those wildly warm (or cold) temps (like as posted in OP) which don't materialize without factoring in past climatology, while claiming to be a weather forecasting site. Might as well use (In)AccuWeather.
The WO forecasts are consistently pretty accurate for me, the Rigoids and Umeå. So what's your problem?
Are you trying to score some Internet points with this rediculous thread or what?
Seems once again to be a lommaresque attention / ass-kissing thread where it sounds good in your head, but in real life it's just stupid.
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Post by Benfxmth on Jul 14, 2022 15:30:30 GMT -5
Obviously no weather forecasting site or model is 100% accurate, or that it can't be trusted. My issue is that WO forecasts those wildly warm (or cold) temps (like as posted in OP) which don't materialize without factoring in past climatology, while claiming to be a weather forecasting site. Might as well use (In)AccuWeather.
The WO forecasts are consistently pretty accurate for me, the Rigoids and Umeå. So what's your problem?
Are you trying to score some Internet points with this rediculous thread or what?
Seems once again to be a lommaresque attention / ass-kissing thread where it sounds good in your head, but in real life it's just stupid.
If it works for you, then great. I've already explained my issues with it, hence why I've never jumped on the WO bandwagon. But you can choose to assume the worst of me, if you wish to equate me to the new Lommaren. |
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Post by AJ1013 on Jul 14, 2022 15:35:23 GMT -5
WeatherOnline sucks. Ultimate botev forecasting service. 109F in London lmfao yeah right.
It bugs out during cold snaps sometimes too (I saw a 1/-15 day forecast for Tucson once which was of course total nonsense)
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Jul 14, 2022 15:37:24 GMT -5
weatheronline is full of shit even for Europe. Only will reach 99F at the highest.
109F is never going to happen.
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Post by desiccatedi85 on Jul 14, 2022 19:00:03 GMT -5
weatheronline is full of shit even for Europe. Only will reach 99F at the highest. 109F is never going to happen. Careful what you say. That's what they said about the Pee En Double Yoo heatwave last year 
Seriously though, WeatherOnline doesn't seem bad for here for the most part, very similar to NWS and TWC (except for that 80F low, which could definitely happen but it's too far out). 109F in London is dubious indeed though, as not even the most bullish model guidance is calling for that type of heat there. When the GFS's 0z run today was spitting out max temps in the 105F-110F range here, if WeatherOnline applied the same logic as in London, it'd be forecasting temps in excess of 110F here. Maybe this London forecast is a system error?
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Post by flamingGalah on Jul 14, 2022 19:09:44 GMT -5
It was established a long time ago that WeatherOnline forecasts are only any good for Europe & only at a shorter range. For the UK the Met Office & BBC automated web forecasts are absolute rubbish & Weather.com is as bad as Accuweather.
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Post by AJ1013 on Jul 14, 2022 19:12:34 GMT -5
Established by who?
Weather.com has the heat peaking at 100F in London. How much you wanna bet that’s closer to actuality than weatheronline’s 109F.
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Jul 14, 2022 19:14:51 GMT -5
Established by who? Weather.com has the heat peaking at 100F in London. How much you wanna bet that’s closer to actuality than weatheronline’s 109F. The Epic Brigade |
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Post by flamingGalah on Jul 14, 2022 19:15:20 GMT -5
It's been discussed many times on here in the past
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Post by dunnowhattoputhere on Jul 14, 2022 19:23:08 GMT -5
BBC has 38C for Leeds. WO has 38C. The iPhone weather app (which uses weather.com) shows 37C. They’re all singing from the same hymn sheet now. The highest temperature on the BBC right now is 40C for Kew in SW London. GFS consistently showing 40-41C widely across England.
The kind of heat being shown for England is almost unbelievable so I don’t blame people dismissing it, but it’s like that heatwave in Canada last year - totally unthinkable, until it wasn’t.
I’ll say that I don’t think 43C will be reached in London but 40-41C is very possible.
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Post by Benfxmth on Jul 14, 2022 19:32:37 GMT -5
It was established a long time ago that WeatherOnline forecasts are only any good for Europe & only at a shorter range. For the UK the Met Office & BBC automated web forecasts are absolute rubbish & Weather.com is as bad as Accuweather. Fair enough, I can't speak of Met Office/BBC's forecasts for the UK. WO, especially more than 3-4 days out is still just as gahbage though. |
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