NH Fall / SH Spring 2022 Discussion Thread

Down to 48F here this morning.

I haven't had measurable precip in over 3 weeks now and don't see rain coming anytime soon. Seems similar to 2016 & 2017 which were both wet late summer followed by drought in the fall months.

Great Contrast Of Temperatures This Morning.
( source: Weatherzone )

The first day of October started with a temperature difference of more than 30 degrees between the extreme north and south of Australia.

The early hours of the morning had been freezing in Tasmania, with temperatures nearly minus 7 degrees. Meanwhile, in the northern states of Northern Territory and Queensland, the day dawned sultry with temperatures of almost 30 degrees. At both extremes, temperatures were 2-8 degrees below and above average, respectively.

Coldest minimum temperatures today:
Liawenee (TAS ) recorded -6.9 degrees (7.7 degrees below average);
Butlers Gorge (TAS) recorded -3.7 degrees (6.1 degrees below average);
Tunnack (TAS) recorded -2.3 degrees (6.7 degrees below average).

Highest minimum temperatures today:
Victoria River Downs (NT) recorded 27.6 degrees (5.2 degrees above average);
Delamere (NT) recorded 27.0 degrees (3.1 degrees above average);
Coconut Island (QLD) recorded 26.9 degrees (2.2 degrees above average).

So what’s happening?

In the south, a high pressure system coupled with a mass of cold air helped to bring down temperatures during the night. Cold air was also felt in eastern Victoria and southern New South Wales, but in a less intense manner due to cloud cover.

The north of the country has been receiving warmer air due to a trough that is bringing warmer air from the tropics to northern Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia.

This trough will move eastward over the next few days and will spread above-average minimum temperatures across much of the Northern Territory, Queensland, and north of South Australia.
The cold will ease in Tasmania as cloud cover increases with another trough crossing the region earlier in the week. On the other hand, temperatures are expected to drop in eastern Victoria and southern New South Wales with clear skies due to high pressure.

Is that close to a record? Almost 3 months of snow cover seems super long for how mild Vancouver is.

Are there any verifiable storm surge totals for Ian yet?

High was 71 (22 c) before a brief shower in the afternoon that cooled things down. The excellent start to October continues as it was another quite pleasant day.

2/3 days this month have rained but both have been light, drizzly and not all afternoon. I like a few days of this kind of precipitation in fall.

Another Week Of Flooding Rain
( source: Weatherzone )

Australia is in for yet another wet week with heavy rainfall, severe storms and gusty winds set to impact most of the country.
A series of low pressure troughs will drag down moist tropical air from the Indian Ocean over the coming week, bringing days of flooding rain to the already sodden landscape.
The map below shows thick cloud and rain sweeping over central Australia on Tuesday morning, as a low swirls over the South Australian coast.

This system will deliver rain and storms throughout the NT, western Qld, NSW, northern Vic and SA during Tuesday and Wednesday.
The map below shows widespread falls of 20-40mm in these areas, with isolated falls of 60-80mm during the next 48 hours.

Some of the heaviest falls are expected over the Murray-Darling Basin where most rivers are already at the moderate flood level, with some areas experiencing major flooding.
After a brief reprieve a cold front will clip southwestern WA from Wednesday. This front will link up with more moisture from the north over SA on Thursday and continue to build into the weekend as it crosses eastern Australia.
Flooding rains once again look to fall over Friday, Saturday and Sunday over much of NSW, Vic and into northern Tas. Widespread falls of 30-60mm are expected, though some locations could see more than 80mm. Severe storms and gusty winds will follow the heaviest rain, particularly over SA and western Qld and NSW

The largest rainfall totals are expected in southwest Qld, NSW, northern VIC, northern Tas and eastern SA, where some areas could exceed 100mm over the coming week.
This multi day deluge comes as moisture-laden air streams in from the north, with the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña both in full effect.

Over the coming week, rainfall is likely to lead to flood watches and warnings, as well as warnings for severe thunderstorms.

( my own text )
Tropical moisture streaming in from the north west.

Stormy over Indonesia and Northern Australia.

Endless summer in Vancouver continues

Pretty unprecedented. I am sure Vancouver will have tons of rain come NDJ.

Vast Rain System From Bass Strait To Gulf Of Carpentaria
( source: Weatherzone )

Look at the size of that thing. It's a massive band of cloud and rain extending from the Gulf of Carpentaria to Bass Strait and beyond.
We wrote yesterday that another exceptionally wet week of weather was on its way to Australia, and especially eastern Australia, with heavy rainfall, severe storms and gusty winds.
The image below, taken just before midday on Wednesday (AEDT), illustrates the scale of the system.

Not all of the cloud in that system is currently generating rain, although a lot of it is, as you can see in the image below, in which the green areas represent rain – as regular visitors to the Weatherzone radar would know.

Overnight, solid falls were experienced in South Australia and large parts of far western NSW and Victoria. Some of the readings of note included:
Kingscote, the largest town on SA’s Kangaroo Island (pop. 1800) saw 36.6 mm, its heaviest daily October rain in 22 years.
Wilcannia, the outback NSW town on the Darling River saw a very handy 34.8 mm, its heaviest October drop in 12 years.
Lameroo in SA's Murraylands forecast district had 31 mm, which was its highest daily fall in any month for almost three years.

As this system tracks its way slowly eastwards, already saturated catchments of the Murray Darling Basin and rivers east of the Great Dividing Range in NSW, Victoria and Queensland can expect flooding.

Numerous flood warnings are in place, especially for rivers in western and central NSW so please check our warnings page for updates.