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Post by grega94 on Oct 6, 2022 2:30:42 GMT -5
what are some cities that are transitioning into another climate classification in the next decade or two? One example would be Portland, OR which is transitioning from Csb to Csa. In the past 10 years (2012-2022), 8 of those had at least 1 month with a mean >= 71.6F (22C) and 3 of those had at least 8 months >= 50F (10C). In 2016 it had 9 months > 50F. I created a trend line below to determine that Portland will cross over the threshold in 2027. Portland data only goes back to 1939 so I used the data from Vancouver to backfill so I could get a more accurate trendline.  * Do you think that Portland will officially be Csa for 2001-2030 averages? Or maybe 2011-2030? Or do you think this is just a temporary bump and will remain Csb? It's currently at 70.6F, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the average could go up by a degree (F) in the next decade or two. |
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Post by Mörön on Oct 6, 2022 6:36:29 GMT -5
Saw the writing on the wall for Portland back in the mid 2000s when I lived there. Fucking hated the summers and the dreary, non-cold winters. It's only gotten much worse since then.  |
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Post by melonside421 on Oct 6, 2022 6:38:39 GMT -5
I would actually say NYC, cause IMO it's not a true subtropical climate, Philly and DC more so obviously; Live oaks and palmettos are hardy to zone 8, the furthest north area I can find is the Eastern Shore of VA.
I define "subtropical" as a climate with all months being atleast 5C as well as being in atleast zone 8; Although Koppen meant Cfa to mean "mild temperate" but people seem to mistranslate it to make NYC and even Boston into the "subtropical" category, despite both of them having clearly cold winters, albeit not as cold as say, Minneapolis or Portland ME.
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Post by melonside421 on Oct 6, 2022 6:41:17 GMT -5
Saw the writing on the wall for Portland back in the mid 2000s when I lived there. Fucking hated the summers and the dreary, non-cold winters. It's only gotten much worse since then. Yea the big flaw of PNW climates is that their cold periods are soaked with rain, even Seattle and Portland, as it makes it harder to melt off the frost with watering, since the ground would be soaken wet, not good for cool season crops. |
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Post by grega94 on Oct 6, 2022 16:41:27 GMT -5
Saw the writing on the wall for Portland back in the mid 2000s when I lived there. Fucking hated the summers and the dreary, non-cold winters. It's only gotten much worse since then. Yea the big flaw of PNW climates is that their cold periods are soaked with rain, even Seattle and Portland, as it makes it harder to melt off the frost with watering, since the ground would be soaken wet, not good for cool season crops. From my experience the frosts hit during dry spells in the winter, usually when it’s cloudy it acts as an insulator and prevents the temps going below freezing. And cold hardy veggies such as kale or Arugula seem to do perfectly fine in our winters |
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Post by firebird1988 on Oct 6, 2022 17:03:30 GMT -5
Rochester, NY went from Dfb to Dfa with the 91-20 avgs; July now avgs over 22°C
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Post by melonside421 on Oct 6, 2022 17:14:14 GMT -5
Yea the big flaw of PNW climates is that their cold periods are soaked with rain, even Seattle and Portland, as it makes it harder to melt off the frost with watering, since the ground would be soaken wet, not good for cool season crops. From my experience the frosts hit during dry spells in the winter, usually when it’s cloudy it acts as an insulator and prevents the temps going below freezing. And cold hardy veggies such as kale or Arugula seem to do perfectly fine in our winters Leafy crops obviously handle cold better than peas, since peas are like seeds as well as protein packed food as well as a great snack mange-tout. |
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Post by grega94 on Oct 7, 2022 11:08:18 GMT -5
I would actually say NYC, cause IMO it's not a true subtropical climate, Philly and DC more so obviously; Live oaks and palmettos are hardy to zone 8, the furthest north area I can find is the Eastern Shore of VA. I define "subtropical" as a climate with all months being atleast 5C as well as being in atleast zone 8; Although Koppen meant Cfa to mean "mild temperate" but people seem to mistranslate it to make NYC and even Boston into the "subtropical" category, despite both of them having clearly cold winters, albeit not as cold as say, Minneapolis or Portland ME. It's interesting that you point out NYC, per the trendline below it crossed over the freezing point in 2009, perhaps that is one of the major reason people have such an aversion to classifying it as "subtropical" because people still perceive it to be a snowy city. That being said it's a long ways away from reaching 5C (41F), per the trendline it will get there in 2288  |
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Post by melonside421 on Oct 7, 2022 11:31:17 GMT -5
I would actually say NYC, cause IMO it's not a true subtropical climate, Philly and DC more so obviously; Live oaks and palmettos are hardy to zone 8, the furthest north area I can find is the Eastern Shore of VA. I define "subtropical" as a climate with all months being atleast 5C as well as being in atleast zone 8; Although Koppen meant Cfa to mean "mild temperate" but people seem to mistranslate it to make NYC and even Boston into the "subtropical" category, despite both of them having clearly cold winters, albeit not as cold as say, Minneapolis or Portland ME. It's interesting that you point out NYC, per the trendline below it crossed over the freezing point in 2009, perhaps that is one of the major reason people have such an aversion to classifying it as "subtropical" because people still perceive it to be a snowy city. That being said it's a long ways away from reaching 5C (41F), per the trendline it will get there in 2288 I know it's not as snowy as it used to be, but for someone who lives in a true subtropical climate, I see palms everywhere and fruiting citrus. There is a category in between continential and subtropical, I would call it "temperate". Remember, Koppen didn't even use the term "subtropical", so it really throws it out the window of the irrational argument that NYC is a subtropical place. Also, in subtropical climates like Myrtle Beach and Orlando, deciduous trees and pines still exist, so showing pictures of vegetation doesn't spell out the entire story. Of course it will be in 2288 or even sooner that it would be solid subtropical, cause it's crazy to think it's even remotely subtropical. I am from a climate that is warmer than that, but it's still too cold to grow citrus or live oaks, and nobody has any idea that you can grow any true subtropical indicators, or for the fact that VA is classified as "subtropical"(mild temperate) at all. I would remind you again that Koppen NEVER used the term "subtropical" in any of his writings, which makes it difficult to think NYC deserves the title, compared to nearly everwhere in SC, even when oaks and pines are occupying the space as the native vegetation in the Piedmont. |
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Post by Ethereal on Aug 12, 2023 21:12:58 GMT -5
I believe the oceanic (Cfb) Wollongong is very quickly becoming humid subtropical (Cfa).
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Post by greysrigging on Aug 12, 2023 21:36:16 GMT -5
I believe the oceanic (Cfb) Wollongong is very quickly becoming humid subtropical (Cfa). Oh oh....'subtropical' discussion alert !....warning, warning, warning ... ( repeat on endless loop.... ) |
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Post by Ethereal on Aug 12, 2023 21:51:31 GMT -5
I believe the oceanic (Cfb) Wollongong is very quickly becoming humid subtropical (Cfa). Oh oh....'subtropical' discussion alert !....warning, warning, warning ... ( repeat on endless loop.... ) I only mean this "koppenically", using his weird and arbitrary subtropical isotherm of 22C. Washington DC is apparently humid subtropical under his 22C isotherm, and we both know that it ain't subtropical.  |
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Post by greysrigging on Aug 13, 2023 3:12:04 GMT -5
Mmmmm... I dont in any way shape or form see the 'Gong as a subtropical place... my parents moved up that way 50 years ago ( 30 klm inland ) from Victoria.
Firmly temperate oceanic in my view ( and much milder than where we came from in northern Victoria. )
Mind you, with the warming climate as we have seen in the 21st Century, it's possible the 'subtropical' thing.... but honestly I can't see it myself in my lifetime.
I've always loved the beaches there, and the escarpment up the top at Mt Kiera with it's temperate rainforest vegetation including the AU native endemic palm Livistona australis which occurs natuarally as far south as just over the border into Victoria.
The 'Gong itself has very few extremes of temperature, max and min... of course they do get the odd extreme heatdays as does any coastal region in continental AU, but its the exception rather than the norm.
This is the means from Wollongong Uni 1971-2008:
Yearly mean max = 21.8c, yearly mean min 13.3c.
Rainfall = 1348.6mm
Yearly mean 17.5c... yeah/nah.... not 'subtropical.... firmly warm ( ish ) temperate oceanic.
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Post by psychedamike24 on Aug 21, 2023 1:30:28 GMT -5
what are some cities that are transitioning into another climate classification in the next decade or two? One example would be Portland, OR which is transitioning from Csb to Csa. In the past 10 years (2012-2022), 8 of those had at least 1 month with a mean >= 71.6F (22C) and 3 of those had at least 8 months >= 50F (10C). In 2016 it had 9 months > 50F. I created a trend line below to determine that Portland will cross over the threshold in 2027. Portland data only goes back to 1939 so I used the data from Vancouver to backfill so I could get a more accurate trendline. * Do you think that Portland will officially be Csa for 2001-2030 averages? Or maybe 2011-2030? Or do you think this is just a temporary bump and will remain Csb? It's currently at 70.6F, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the average could go up by a degree (F) in the next decade or two. Feels weird to think of summer 2020 as being cooler than the last several years, even though that was definitely true compared to 2018, 2021, and 2022. This summer has been milder than the last two for sure. I'm going to be contrarian and say Portland will still be Csb for the 2001-2030 averages. |
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Post by Babu on Aug 28, 2023 0:46:53 GMT -5
Paris is rapidly moving towards Cfa. Following the trendline, July will start having a 22'C mean in just a couple years.  |
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Post by grega94 on Sept 9, 2023 10:40:08 GMT -5
what are some cities that are transitioning into another climate classification in the next decade or two? One example would be Portland, OR which is transitioning from Csb to Csa. In the past 10 years (2012-2022), 8 of those had at least 1 month with a mean >= 71.6F (22C) and 3 of those had at least 8 months >= 50F (10C). In 2016 it had 9 months > 50F. I created a trend line below to determine that Portland will cross over the threshold in 2027. Portland data only goes back to 1939 so I used the data from Vancouver to backfill so I could get a more accurate trendline. * Do you think that Portland will officially be Csa for 2001-2030 averages? Or maybe 2011-2030? Or do you think this is just a temporary bump and will remain Csb? It's currently at 70.6F, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the average could go up by a degree (F) in the next decade or two. Feels weird to think of summer 2020 as being cooler than the last several years, even though that was definitely true compared to 2018, 2021, and 2022. This summer has been milder than the last two for sure. I'm going to be contrarian and say Portland will still be Csb for the 2001-2030 averages. this summer was milder? Portland broke it’s all time record for highest mean temperature this Agust at 75.4F (24.1C), the previous record was last year in August at 75.1F (23.9C). Also another thing to consider is that usually during a La Niña the summers are usually cooler, and we just had 3 back to back and they were still very warm, now that we entered El Niño fase it will only get warmer. That being said I think you might be right and 2001-2030 will be just under the threshold for Csa. |
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Post by sari on Sept 9, 2023 11:13:45 GMT -5
Kansas City continues to slowly creep ever closer to Cfa. It won't be long now. I continue to live in denial.
Surprisingly, even the warmer MKC location still just barely avoids it, only because the temperature difference with the airport station is bigger in summer than in winter.
There is something interesting - KC (at MCI) is actually the coldest and snowiest place at its latitude in this region. Both Topeka and Columbia are closer to Cfa (or arguably already there - certainly they will be for the 2001-2030 averages, while KC might just barely last one more decade). At some point, whether it's visible in averages or not, this place will be the last holdout at this latitude. So I can take some comfort in that.
And despite this, the summer low stability that I complain about so much is unique to KC - both Topeka and Columbia have considerably lower summer record lows.
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Post by psychedamike24 on Sept 9, 2023 19:03:11 GMT -5
Feels weird to think of summer 2020 as being cooler than the last several years, even though that was definitely true compared to 2018, 2021, and 2022. This summer has been milder than the last two for sure. I'm going to be contrarian and say Portland will still be Csb for the 2001-2030 averages. this summer was milder? Portland broke it’s all time record for highest mean temperature this Agust at 75.4F (24.1C), the previous record was last year in August at 75.1F (23.9C). Also another thing to consider is that usually during a La Niña the summers are usually cooler, and we just had 3 back to back and they were still very warm, now that we entered El Niño fase it will only get warmer. That being said I think you might be right and 2001-2030 will be just under the threshold for Csa. There's definitely been fewer 90+ F days this summer than there were in 2022 or 2021. This August had longer stretches without <60 F nighttime lows than typical though. |
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Post by grega94 on Sept 9, 2023 23:00:29 GMT -5
this summer was milder? Portland broke it’s all time record for highest mean temperature this Agust at 75.4F (24.1C), the previous record was last year in August at 75.1F (23.9C). Also another thing to consider is that usually during a La Niña the summers are usually cooler, and we just had 3 back to back and they were still very warm, now that we entered El Niño fase it will only get warmer. That being said I think you might be right and 2001-2030 will be just under the threshold for Csa. There's definitely been fewer 90+ F days this summer than there were in 2022 or 2021. This August had longer stretches without <60 F nighttime lows than typical thought. Yes 2021 was a 1 in a 1000 year event, but this year was still very hot especially August. Portland broke its August record high, it reached 108F and there were 10 days > 90F compared to 11 last year and 9 in 2021. So far this year there have been 22 days > 90F (there is another 3 forecasted next week) compared to 29 last year and 24 in 2021. But yes the first half of summer was a bit milder, however May was a record breaker and was warmer than a typical Jun month. Portland’s Mean highs (2023/ Avg/2021) May: 75.5F/69.3F/70.5F Jun: 78.1F/74.3F/82.6F Jul: 85.9F/81.9F/85.5F Aug: 87.1F/ 82.3F/84.0F |
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Post by Ariete on Sept 22, 2023 13:10:09 GMT -5
Vaasa (even the airport) 63N on west-coast Finland is not köppen schmöppen dfc anymore, but dfb.
Friendship ended with subarctic climate. Now humid continental climate is my best friend.
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