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Post by ilmc90 on Oct 30, 2017 18:54:41 GMT -5
The question says it all. When will Miami (KMIA) drop below 50 F/10 C?
This isn't included in the poll, but also feel free to predict Miami's lowest temperature for the upcoming winter season.
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Post by Cadeau on Oct 30, 2017 19:42:03 GMT -5
 I will safely guess around December 20th, definitely before the new year. |
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Post by AJ1013 on Oct 30, 2017 20:58:20 GMT -5
Can we do Miami beach (or literally any other Miami area station) instead? MIA is a station and is known to have obs issues (which I have documented over the oast year).
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Post by alex992 on Oct 30, 2017 21:01:48 GMT -5
Second half of November, I'd say November 20th. I get the feeling we're gonna have a nice cold front around that time, I predict the first half of November to be above average, second half below average.
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Post by AJ1013 on Oct 30, 2017 21:03:33 GMT -5
First half of November will definitely be above average, second half is looking close to average at this point. I'm getting a bad feeling about this winter  My prediction is December 15th. Overall I predict this winter to be above average but with one strong cold snap (all that below normal air up north has to be released at least once doesn't it?). I think the coldest day this winter will have a low of 38F and a high of 55F on Key Biscayne...MIA will probably have a high of 95F the same day... |
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Post by alex992 on Oct 30, 2017 21:11:57 GMT -5
I don't know, this fall/winter up to this point is looking quite similar to 2008/2009 which was also a La Nina, which had a below average January and February if I'm not mistaken. That winter had quite a lot of cold snaps, maybe this one is the same. That fall/winter had a cold snap around this exact time of year as well, an above average first half of November and a good cold snap in the second half.
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Post by AJ1013 on Oct 30, 2017 21:15:01 GMT -5
I don't know, this fall/winter up to this point is looking quite similar to 2008/2009 which was also a La Nina, which had a below average January and February if I'm not mistaken. That winter had quite a lot of cold snaps, maybe this one is the same. That fall/winter had a cold snap around this exact time of year as well, an above average first half of November and a good cold snap in the second half. Even though I know it's silly I'm actually getting kind of pissed off about the MIA station. How do these fucking buffoons at the NWS not realize there's an issue. I've already reached out several times and I get the same BS response the reeks of "I don't care what this guy says, he can't tell me how to do my job". Fucking idiots won't even look at the numbers proving I'm right  . Any Ideas? |
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Post by jgtheone on Oct 30, 2017 23:13:15 GMT -5
Dec 25 it'll get a freak frost for alex's and aj's christmas presents.  |
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Post by boombo on Oct 31, 2017 13:59:44 GMT -5
I'll go later than average, second half of Dec. Great work Cadeau for putting that chart up  |
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Post by alex992 on Oct 31, 2017 14:03:14 GMT -5
Anybody who's predicting later than average can go to hell.....
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Post by boombo on Oct 31, 2017 18:37:56 GMT -5
I never realised how variable winters in Miami could be, Miami's still capable of getting below 50F as late as April 18th but then in other years it hasn't recorded it all winter at all until well into February?!
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Post by alex992 on Oct 31, 2017 20:19:13 GMT -5
I never realised how variable winters in Miami could be, Miami's still capable of getting below 50F as late as April 18th but then in other years it hasn't recorded it all winter at all until well into February?! Actually if anything, it speaks to our lack of continentality. A true 4 season climate wouldn't get a low 10 F lower than their average January low lol, unless you live in Denver or crazy variable climate like that. The fact April is only about 4 C warmer than January down here makes it easy for things like this to happen. |
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Post by AJ1013 on Oct 31, 2017 21:21:34 GMT -5
I never realised how variable winters in Miami could be, Miami's still capable of getting below 50F as late as April 18th but then in other years it hasn't recorded it all winter at all until well into February?! Miami's probably the only place in the world that can have no day colder than 82/73 (with most days like 85/77) for the first 25 days of a month then have a high in the 60's a couple of days later |
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Post by AJ1013 on Oct 31, 2017 21:22:04 GMT -5
Or that can have a low of 75F and a low of 35F in the same month.
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Post by AJ1013 on Nov 14, 2017 12:42:11 GMT -5
It's looking like we're going to have a prolonged period of below normal temperatures starting Sunday and lasting for at least a week or so. Decent chance we'll see 40's. imgur.com/a/otlBa |
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Post by alex992 on Nov 14, 2017 13:12:59 GMT -5
I wouldn't hold my breath for 40s in November down here, especially with the bullshit pattern we've had recently. Hell, I'd hardly hold my breath for 50s, we won't know for sure until we get closer to next week.
That's what I don't like about those models. Too much false hope.
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Post by AJ1013 on Nov 14, 2017 13:37:23 GMT -5
I wouldn't hold my breath for 40s in November down here, especially with the bullshit pattern we've had recently. Hell, I'd hardly hold my breath for 50s, we won't know for sure until we get closer to next week. That's what I don't like about those models. Too much false hope. I don't think saying there's a "decent" chance of 40's is false hope if it's clearly true even though there's also a decent chance we don't get below 55F. However I would be absolutely shocked we don't get a period of below normal temps. |
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Post by alex992 on Nov 14, 2017 13:43:11 GMT -5
I'd put my money on not going below 55 F. This climate makes you pessimistic, I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.
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Post by AJ1013 on Nov 29, 2017 12:45:28 GMT -5
looks like I was wrong |
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Post by alex992 on Nov 29, 2017 12:53:22 GMT -5
I wanna change my answer to "never" because at this rate, that's what it's looking like.
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