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Post by massiveshibe on Jan 1, 2024 12:32:34 GMT -5
Where I live the El Niño brings mild and rainy winters with little variation and overcast weather. In summer the El Niño brings hot and rainy weather with short storms happening almost every day in the afternoon.
La Niña brings mild summers and steady precipitation with fewer storms. As for the winter, La Niña brings cold and dry weather.
During neutral events however, the summers are hot and dry, even hotter than during an El Niño, while the winters are moderately rainy and cool.
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Post by Ariete on Jan 1, 2024 12:53:15 GMT -5
Very miniscule, and the supposed effects are not very consistent. Foreca:
There is conflicting information about the effects of El Niño on European weather. Some of the research results suggest that winter rains would increase during a strong El Niño in the Mediterranean countries, and cold winter weather can be experienced further north in Europe, but regular recurrence has not been demonstrated. Thus, for Finland, the effects of El Niño are typically minor, and there is no clear evidence of its effects.
It is known that the influence of La Niña on European weather is minimal, at least during the summer months. The effects differ in different years.
However, one study found that during La Niña years in Northern Europe, the probability of westerly flows had increased in the winter months.
In the 21st century, it has happened on many occasions that during La Niña the winter in Finland has been milder than usual. However, the correlation did not occur in all winters, so more thorough conclusions would require studying the effects of the phenomenon over several decades.
The El Niño / La Niña cycle is a bit like Halloween in Finland. The phenomenon exists, but I see no reason to follow it.
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Post by segfault1361 on Jan 1, 2024 13:57:00 GMT -5
I don't haven't noticed any impact outside of winter weather. Even so, there's way too much year-to-year variance in Toronto winters regardless of El Niño/La Niña that it's hard to relate any patterns to El Niño/La Niña.
The only noticeable and consistent impact on Toronto weather is unseasonably warm starts to winter in El Niño years. It's especially noticeable in December. In mid/late January sometimes the effect wears off and we start having colder weather but you still never know because there's unrelated year-to-year variance due to other global patterns.
Also most of the driest winters happened in El Niño years and wettest winters happened in La Niña years, but the opposite can happen as well, you can't just assume the weather will be dry or wet from El Niño/La Niña because again, other global patterns take precedence.
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Post by CRISPR on Jan 1, 2024 14:03:15 GMT -5
Where I live, El Niño and La Niña play a significant role in the weather (as well as the associated agricultural productivity). At the El Niño phase, the cooler West Pacific waters produce less precipitation and cloud cover. This creates mild, dry winters and hot, very dry summers full of sun, bushfires and drought; just like 2023. During La Nina, the warmer waters in the West Pacific increase evaporation, cloud cover and moisture. This results in cold, wet winters and warm, wet summers with cloud, downpours and floods; just like 2022. Neutral phase brings intermediate conditions: cool winters and very warm summers with moderate precipitation and sunshine year-round.
IMO, I would like either like a consistent neutral phase; or a La Niña Summer + El Niño winter combination; like early 2023.
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Post by firebird1988 on Jan 1, 2024 14:05:37 GMT -5
Generally (there are exceptions, especially with La Niña):
El Niño=cool and wet La Niña=warm (or seasonal) and dry
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Post by jgtheone on Jan 1, 2024 18:36:57 GMT -5
La Niña: Wetter, cloudier and cooler than normal; occasionally you can get a very stable, warmer than average month (see Jan 2022) El Niño: Nothing, because it's weak and fake.
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Post by desiccatedi85 on Jan 1, 2024 20:43:08 GMT -5
In the inland SE US
El Niño = cooler, rainier winters with especially lowered diurnals, as compared to average. Peak summer heat tends to be in August, and late summer/early fall are drier due to diminished chances of tropical cyclonic remnants.
La Niña = milder, drier winters with higher diurnal variation, as compared to average. December often the coldest month, spring arriving early. Rainier in summer.
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Post by greysrigging on Jan 1, 2024 21:41:24 GMT -5
Australia's weather patterns and cycles are heavily influenced by ENSO
It's etched in the national psyche, the cycle of droughts and floods Everyone knows of this poem written 115 years ago which pretty well sums it all up.
'MY COUNTRY' The love of field and coppice, Of green and shaded Lanes, Of ordered woods and gardens, Is running in your veins; Strong love of grey-blue distance, Brown streams and soft, dim skies - I know but cannot share it, My love is otherwise.
I love a sunburnt country, A land of sweeping plains, Of ragged mountain ranges, Of drought and flooding rains, I love her far horizons, I love her jewel sea, Her beauty and her terror - The wide brown land for me.
The tragic ring-barked forests Stark white beneath the moon, The sapphire-misted mountains, The hot gold hush of noon. Green tangle of the brushes Where lithe lianas coil, An orchids deck the tree-tops And ferns the crimson soil.
Core of my heart, my country! Her pitiless blue sky, When sick at heart around us We see the cattle die - But then the grey clouds gather And we can bless again The drumming of an army, The steady, soaking rain.
Core of my heart, my country! Land of the Rainbow Gold, For flood and fire and famine, She pays us back threefold; Over the thirsty paddocks, Watch, after many days, The filmy veil of greenness That thickens as we gaze.
An opal-hearted country, A wilful, lavish land - All you who have not loved her, You will not understand - Though Earth holds many splendours, Wherever I may die, I know to what brown Country My homing thoughts will fly.
Written by Dorothea MacKellar 1885-1967; published 1908; written 1906
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Post by Benfxmth on Jan 2, 2024 7:49:20 GMT -5
El Niño = wetter winters due to a more southerly storm track, muted SE ridging, fewer extreme cold outbreaks/less variability tempwise but more backloaded winters (in the cool season) and less tropical cyclone activity for the Atlantic La Niña = drier winters due to amplified SE ridging, more variable cool-season temps and enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Summer/warm season effects are less significant, though the transition from El Nino to La Nina has been shown to correlate with hotter and drier summers (this also appears to be true for the East Coast): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/14/jcliD190701.xml
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2024 7:58:13 GMT -5
Generally: Niña wet (especially with -IOD), Niño dry (especially with +IOD)
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Post by greysrigging on Jan 7, 2024 20:26:18 GMT -5
The 2023-2024 El Nino in S E AU:
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Post by greysrigging on Jan 7, 2024 23:13:49 GMT -5
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Post by Morningrise on Jan 12, 2024 10:21:57 GMT -5
El Nino typically brings milder and drier winters here and it definitely did that this past November and December, with persistently above average temperatures and sunshine and nearly no precipitation.
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Post by Ethereal on Jan 12, 2024 18:12:17 GMT -5
La Niña: Wetter, cloudier and cooler than normal; occasionally you can get a very stable, warmer than average month (see Jan 2022) El Niño: Nothing, because it's weak and fake.Gonna have to apply that for Sydney for this summer so far. 😤 It appears that El Nino is more 'effective' for northwestern Australia. The east coast has been drenching since Nov...What el nino!? Lmao Luckily the brunt of the heavy rain has been more fixated in the northeast though.
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Post by cawfeefan on Jan 14, 2024 5:24:03 GMT -5
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Post by Ethereal on Jan 17, 2024 7:40:38 GMT -5
Makes perfect sense! After all, El Nino has been on the negligible end either way for the eastern seaboard (2014-15 El Nino summers had decent amount of rain I remember). So El Nino doesn't really dry up things much here in summer. Rather, it's the positive Indian Ocean Dipole that gives the most driest, parched asf, hot weather (i.e. the 2019-20 angry summer). This current El Nino only "moderated" the crazy La Nina rainfall. We're still getting rain, like nearly every other day, but it isn't very intense and stubborn (as it is during a La Nina). Also, this month has been mostly cloudy thus far. Warm rain lovers will love this month because it's raining and the temp is like 26C. It's actually pretty nice, ngl. 😜
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 3, 2024 4:21:41 GMT -5
I thought this is a reasonable explanation of the recent El Nino in AU
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