When will I next see a drier than average month?

As a result of the oceans warming in the new age AGW climate completely overwhelming the climate system, London won't ever get a drier than normal month again, those unprecedented bouts of heat were a signature of the initial warming before the overwhelming ocean warming befalls us.

I'm not at all surprised by the period of consecutive wet months much of the country is enduring; the effects of rising sea temperatures esp. in the Atlantic due to AGW are the main driving force behind why I believe we are seeing an increase in both the intensity and frequency of rainfall in this, obviously, maritime influenced climate. This is corroborated by 100+ years of Met Office precipitation data for many UK locations, in which we can see that the majority of record wet months have occurred within often just the last 30 years. This is true for Sheffield and most other locations with official Met Office stations. It makes sense to me. Warmer temperatures from AGW holds more moisture, and warmer SST's likewise lead to more energy in the jet stream and low pressure systems that affect the UK.

That said, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to knowing when the next drier month will occur and when this pattern will break down. Long range forecasting is still very much in its infancy and even with the best computers money can buy, today any such forecast is little better than flipping a coin. So out of pure guesswork I'll go ahead and say July.

When the gulf stream collapses and London turns into a frigid tundra

That has been saying every month will break the wet spell, until the month arrives and continues to be wet.

Don't put too much stock on specific model runs, especially CFSv2. Can't forecast the next piss with it. Copernicus multi model seasonal/monthly forecasts lean towards wet for April there:



climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/

Probably June will be dry and sunny in London, just in time to piss me off, as I long for summer drought.

Well it looks like nothing in the next 6 months at least. By then it would be 18 months since we last saw a dry month!

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html

Normally I'd say June when things heat up up there

Sounds like here during a La Nina. Are there oceans around you guys warming up? The Tasman Sea here has been warmer than usual, hence the recent heavy rainfalls.