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Post by Mörön on Oct 1, 2021 17:32:14 GMT -5
Fuckannnnn! It won't accumulate much or last long if it does, but it's good to see so early.  |
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Post by Doña Jimena on Oct 2, 2021 2:20:26 GMT -5
Nice and warm for October  |
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Post by ilmc90 on Oct 2, 2021 8:00:39 GMT -5
Warm tomorrow, mild and damp all week.   |
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Post by ral31 on Oct 2, 2021 9:44:54 GMT -5
Warm and muggy this weekend with t-storms. Clearing up next week with temps around average.  |
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Post by jgtheone on Oct 2, 2021 9:48:20 GMT -5
Rather showery and variable in temperature  |
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Post by knot on Oct 2, 2021 16:00:28 GMT -5
Cool and wet to begin October  |
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Post by greysrigging on Oct 2, 2021 17:36:02 GMT -5
Some nice early October beach weather in Wyndham the next 7 days....  |
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Post by Ethereal on Oct 2, 2021 21:57:29 GMT -5
Some nice early October beach weather in Wyndham the next 7 days.... I actually came here to post about the Top End conditions this week. Is this normal at this time of the year or is it some sort of a heatwave?  |
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Post by Mörön on Oct 2, 2021 22:25:48 GMT -5
Snow looking almost a certainty now when looking at the models. This forecast gives just a small hint at it...  |
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Post by Benfxmth on Oct 3, 2021 3:46:52 GMT -5
ilmc90 Your forecast looks very similar to mine.     
.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave trough will continue to affect the area today. High pressure will briefly build in from the southwest Monday before a cold front approaches, and moves through the area Tuesday, followed by a secondary cold front pushing through Wednesday, with low pressure remaining over the area late week and into the weekend, bringing cooler conditions.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
As of 8:30 AM Sun...Latest analysis shows a large 965 mbar North Atlantic low centered over the Shetlands with subtle high pressure still controlling most of the Mediterranean, and with a shortwave over central and southern Italy; current radar imagery this morning shows isolated showers off the coast moving north. Most of shower activity should stay offshore or near the immediate coast, though 00Z model guidance indicates iso. showers moving onshore early this afternoon, so will keep mentioning isolated showers in the forecast this afternoon, especially for areas near the coast. Highs today in the mid to upper 70s expected under partly cloudy skies.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 8:30 AM Sun...Shortwave should dissipate tonight as upper ridging builds back in and heights rebound. Could see isolated shower activity near the coast tonight, but activity should wane after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Partly cloudy skies and easterly flow should keep lows in the lower to mid 60s tonight.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 9:00 AM Sunday...Dry weather expected tomorrow with high pressure over the region and temperatures above normal before a cold front sweeps through the area, bringing wet weather for Tuesday, before a secondary cold front pushes through Wednesday, with cooler, but wetter conditions lingering behind it as an upper low lingers around the area.
Monday...High pressure will shift southeastwards Thursday in response to upper trough assoc. with the upper low pushing southwards. Resultant low-level thicknesses and mostly clear skies should allow for highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F.
Monday night through Tuesday...Aforementioned pattern changing upper level low will dive south Tuesday, and drag its associated cold front southeastward. Guidance has remained steadfast this morning crossing the front by Tuesday morning. Moist southeasterly flow should increase Monday night ahead of the front, and although deep layer shear will be in the 30-40 kts range, and MUCAPE will be modest (in the 500-1,000 J/kg range), the timing of the front's arrival will be a limiting factor, and should limit severe potential. Cloud cover, and precipitation should limit highs to the upper 60s-lower 70s Tuesday, and precipitation tallies won't be too impressive--with most model guidance going for between half and three quarters of an inch.
Wednesday...A secondary cold front is forecast to push southeast across the area Wed afternoon as the upper low moves south into the Tyrrhenian Sea, bringing another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday through Saturday...Broad high pressure rapidly building over Scandinavia should cut off the upper low, with a blocking pattern setting up through the end of the workweek keeping the low centered over the area. There is increasing confidence that the position of this upper low will remain far enough east through the end of work week to mitigate precipitation chances somewhat, but nonetheless this will set the area up for the potential of isolated/scattered showers. Will opt for a diurnal pattern with slight/low chance PoP's but showers occurring at night can't be ruled out. Highs will be near, or even below normal, in the mid 60s to lower 70s owing to cloud cover, and 850 hPa temps in the 6-8 C range, with lows in the lower 50s.
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Post by Mörön on Oct 3, 2021 9:34:57 GMT -5
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Post by Ariete is a Russian Alcoholic on Oct 4, 2021 1:48:15 GMT -5
Adios Chillis and tomatoes  |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2021 13:46:48 GMT -5
Oh hello, a lovely Autumn weekend could be happening.  |
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Post by srfoskey on Oct 4, 2021 17:01:16 GMT -5
Looking more normal for Arizona than Oklahoma.  |
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Post by Strewthless on Oct 5, 2021 6:03:02 GMT -5
It'd be great if this one came off, but the forecasts have consistently been wrong. A couple of days ago the forecast was all 14/15C and cloudy all week. They're clueless.  |
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Post by alex992 on Oct 5, 2021 7:28:33 GMT -5
September horseshit continues. Nothing resembling a frost in the forecast. Whatever, still nice I guess.   |
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Post by Ariete on Oct 5, 2021 7:42:07 GMT -5
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Post by Benfxmth on Oct 5, 2021 11:16:45 GMT -5
Fall weather will be the theme from late week.      .SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will sink south and a secondary cold front will push through Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in to the west. Then a mostly stagnant weather pattern forms with a closed upper low centered over the area, and broad high pressure building into Scandinavia late this week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3:15 PM Tue...Shower/T-storm activity has pushed southeast with drier air above the 800 mbar level filtering in from the northwest as the primary cold front continues to slide southeast, and PW's falling below 1", so not expecting any precipitation this afternoon. Scattered cumulus and stratocumulus clouds persist, but even with some clearing, highs will be much cooler, generally in the lower 70s.
A trough of low pressure will set up offshore to the northwest overnight, which could initiate development of a few isolated showers after 00Z, though model guidance indicates most shower activity remaining offshore, or near the immediate coast. Lows in the upper 50s tonight, with partly cloudy skies continuing with low-level moisture remaining in place.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4:00 PM Tue...Upper low currently centered over the North Sea will be pushed south when ridging builds into the North Atlantic, while on the surface, a trough of low pressure will remain centered off the Ligurian coast. This will make for better forcing ahead of the attendant cold front, and along with a plume of deeper moisture, numerous showers will occur with the most activity occurring between 09Z and 15Z; thereafter, precipitation coverage and intensity will decrease in response to the cold front pushing through. Not looking like much of a severe weather threat, but will need to monitor the southern part of the forecast area, where surface based storms will be possible, and with deep-layer shear values around 40 kts. Most locations should receive .25-.75" of additional rainfall. Expecting highs to be limited to the mid to upper 60s with precipitation, and plenty of low to mid-level cloud cover.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 5:00 PM Tue...High pressure building to the north while low pressure remains over the area, with a mostly stagnant weather pattern taking hold.
Wednesday night...CAA develops behind the cold front Wednesday night, with lows generally in the lower to mid 50s. May see the stray shower or thunderstorm in the front's wake, especially near the coast, but precipitation should taper off.
Thursday...Upper low will becoming centered over southern Italy, providing drier and cooler weather with gusty northerly winds. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday through Monday...Blocking high pressure continues to build in to the the northwest and north Friday, while the aforementioned upper low will remain over the area Friday before migrating to the Balkans by the weekend. There remains some timing differences among guidance, but could see precip chances increase Saturday and Sunday as weather models point to another weak cold front pushing through from the northeast, but keeping PoP's slight or low chance. Highs expected in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the lower 50s. |
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Post by Morningrise on Oct 6, 2021 8:40:08 GMT -5
A bit warm today, a bit cool at the end of the forecast, otherwise pretty seasonal.  |
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Post by rozenn on Oct 6, 2021 12:58:40 GMT -5
FWIW there's no rain at all predicted in the extended forecast, which must be quite rare in October. Don't think that'll happen btw.  |
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