NH Summer/SH Winter Thread 2024

First week of Poo-ly is down here, let's review some highlights from that week, might we?

The 1st was a bit of a doozy. Behind the cold front, came ARCTIC STUPIDITY, WITH ICE COLD FUCKEN HURRICANE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES. Even at 12 PM, it was a mere 72°F with boring ass dry 10 ft thick stratoshit and 60s dews. Guess what the conditions were at midday the previous day (June 30th)? It was 92°F with a 77°F dewpoint with building cumuliform clouds. FUCK THAT SHIT. Early on the 1st, however, I'd get a great lightning show and a solid soaking rain of a total of 0.75", so that was a bit of a compensation, though still, this disgusting cold frontal temp change is IN NO WAY ACCEPTABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER.

The pattern transitioned back to a hotter one just in time for 4th of July and onward. Been nowhere near as hot here as the Sandhills (Lumberton had an actual temp of 103°F on the 5th), and of course, almost none of the forecast "storms" per the NWS were nowhere to be seen (except for one cell bringing me 0.63" of rain and some CG lightning on the afternoon of the 6th), though dewpoints reaching epic territory (78-82°F from 5th-7th) made up for the relatively cooler temps. 

Quick summary at my PWS the first week:

I'd pick Turku over New Bern honestly.

Ariete , you should move to Fair Isle. Must be a pleasant place.

A meteorological curiosity ...?
9th of July, so the depths of winter....
And nowhere in Australia recorded a sub zero minimum temperature !!
I wonder how often this has happened in July ?

Aust lowest:
Thredbo Top Station 0.1c

NSW/ACT. lowest:
Thredbo Top Station 0.1c

VIC lowest:
Mt Hotham 0.5c

QLD lowest:
Thargomindah 6.8c

WA lowest:
Newdegate 3.9c

SA lowest:
Tarcoola 2.2c

TAS lowest:
Dover 0.2c

NT lowest:
Alice Springs 7.1c

Pretty chilly first week of July here. Nicer than the apparent record warm winter we were supposed to get.

I overheard someone say the other day “Warmest winter ever? More like coldest winter ever.”

Reminds me of what was predicted for last summer, but only Feb was hot. 

Neat skies yesterday 

Suicidal shit. Why is that place populated?

Snow likely a long way north of the mountains
( source: Weatherzone )

One thing we haven't seen so far this winter in Australia – and which we barely saw through the whole of last winter – is snow in areas beyond the alpine regions of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.

But snow looks highly possible over a period of several days beginning early next week in places like:

The Blue Mountains, just west of Sydney

The Southern, Central and Northern Tablelands of New South Wales

Elevated parts of the ACT, including relatively low hills on the fringe of Canberra and perhaps even parts of the city itself

Elevated parts of Victoria outside the Victorian Alps

Elevated parts of Tasmania below the mountainous areas

And perhaps even in the Granite Belt of southern Queensland

The cold air is set to reach southeastern Australia by Saturday, with single-digit maximums likely in all the aqua-blue areas on the map below.

But the coming weather will deliver more than just a day or two of chilly weather. A prolonged outbreak of frigid air with Antarctic origins will envelope southeastern Australia for most of next week from this weekend onwards.

Wedged between a strong high pressure system centred over the Bight and a low in the Tasman Sea, this lingering, bitterly cold airmass will make it feel like someone left the fridge door open for several days.

It will be cold, even for July: that much we can guarantee. What remains uncertain at this stage is how much moisture will be associated with system, and when it will arrive.

Weatherzone meteorologist Felix Levesque says the NSW Central Tablelands could see snow flurries at higher levels around 12000m as early as Sunday night/Monday morning, with the possibility of snow increasing throughout Monday and Tuesday as more moisture arrives.
The snow level could drop below 1000m midweek as a new influx of moisture kicks in. Snow around midweek is also quite likely in the Barrington Tops just northwest of Newcastle, which rise to almost 1600m at their highest point.
The Northern Tablelands should also get their share, including the town of Guyra, which at 1330m is Australia's highest town outside the alpine region.

^^Image: Daisy and her friends were not particularly impressed with this 2021 snowfall near Oberon, on the NSW Central Tablelands. Source: @duckmaloi_river_truffles on Instagram.
Further south, the snow line on the mainland will drop to 600 or 700 metres by midweek. Most of Canberra lies at or just below 600 metres, so snow in the city itself is not out of the question.
Victoria will also see snowfalls at times in places beyond the mountains that rarely see a settled cover, while in Tasmania the snowline should be about 700 metres.

It's not often with a winter cold outbreak that the snowline in Tasmania is similar to areas more than a thousand kilometres north, but both the northward push and duration of the coming cold airmass promise to be quite remarkable.

As for the ski resorts, this system can only be good news. Snow cover beyond the snowmaking slopes is currently thin at the higher Australian resorts and non-existent at lower resorts.

Likely snowfall totals for the resorts are difficult to predict with this system, but the midweek period looks best for significant falls. At the very least, they should be able to fire up the snow guns all week.


We'll keep you posted, and as ever, check our snow page for the latest forecasts, snow cam images and more.

The way this is written they are REALLY unsure haha. They're definitely scared of a bust.
Checking the models though I can see why, it's rapidly changing day by day especially in terms of rainfall. All we know is that it's going to be cold.