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Post by irlinit on Aug 30, 2018 9:23:05 GMT -5
Hardest:
35.4C in September - dates back over 100 years ago to 1906 after several hot Septembers in the early 1900s where 33C was breached a few times. Gravesend nearby reached over 34C in September 2016 but that was the warmest UK September temperature since 1911.
March 25.2C seems quite tricky as we haven’t come close for a while. We see low 20s every now and then but any higher seems a struggle.
Easiest:
29.4C in April - Especially as this was recorded mid month and has been approached several times recently - the record dates back to mid month in 1949 and only this year it reached 29C in mid April in St James’ Park.
19.8C in February - I think we will hit 20C eventually as this record is within the last two decades and we see mid-high teens occasionally in February. This record is from 1998 and was set mid month, it reached over 18C in 2015 so it seems beatable
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Post by Beercules on Aug 30, 2018 9:35:08 GMT -5
The record high here is 48.2C, I don't think it is a terribly hard record to break, considering we've gotten within 2C of it last summer, and it hit 48.8C on that day in Hopetoun, Vic, which is further south and very slightly more elevated at 77m.
Record highs tend to be relatively easy to break. Just last night, Adelaide broke its August record high low, with 19.2C at West Terrace, 19.4C at Kent Town and 20.0C at Noarlunga.
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Post by Steelernation on Aug 30, 2018 11:28:53 GMT -5
You shouldn't laugh at that August record, as Shitchester did hit 97°F(36.1°C) on August 14th of 2002 (I was there visiting my folks the day it happened, it was dry by Rochester standards as well, dews were in the 50's(low 10's Celcius) That’s true but it hasn’t gotten over 98 in any month since 1953 so I don’t see 99 f happening any time in the near future if ever. |
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Post by Crunch41 on Sept 2, 2018 13:07:50 GMT -5
USA VERSION-for celsius skip to the middle
Hardest: Cold records are the hardest. The last monthly cold record was 1996. However December 2000 (35F) and July 2009 (82F) set records for the lowest max temperature in the month. Average high is 36F on December 1 and 82F for most of July. -29F in March 1962. The second coldest was -14 in 1960, and it has not gone below -10F since 1962. +36F in July 1965- It has not gone below 40F since 1967, and probably won't in the near future. -14F in November 1887. The second coldest is -8, and it hasn't gone below 0F since 1995. -37F in January 1951. The coldest day in recorded history by 7F.
+101F in May 1934-Even with some near-record May weather lately, the second highest May temperature is only 95F. Likely: Warm temperatures in winter are very common recently +58F in January 1880-it has been as warm as 55F in recent years. December, February, and March records were all broken since 2010. +65F in December 2012-It reached 60F in 2015 and 2017 as well. +90F in October 1976-it has been 90F three times and 80F weather is pretty common.
Other temperature records that are unlikely to break: February 1877-the lowest temperature all month was just 15F, average low is 12F to start the month for 1981-2010. February -April 1878: February's coldest all month was 13F (2nd on record), March 27F (record), April 36F (record). Impressive lack of any below-normal weather. September 1870 had a lowest temperature all month of 54F, that is unlikely to be broken unless the weather station is moved to downtown. The average low is 44F at the end of September for 1981-2010.
CELSIUS:
Hardest: Cold records are the hardest. The last monthly cold record was 1996. However December 2000 (+1.7) and July 2009 (27.8) set records for the lowest max temperature in the month. Average high is 2C on December 1 and 27-28C for all of July. -33.9 in March 1962. The second coldest was -25.6 in 1960, and it has not gone below -10F/-23.3C since 1962.
+2.2 in July 1965- It has not gone below 40F/4.4C since 1967, and probably won't in the near future.
-25.6 in November 1887. The second coldest is -22.2, and it hasn't gone below 0F/-17.8C since 1995.
-38.3 in January 1951. The coldest day in recorded history by 3.9C
+38.3 in May 1934-Even with some near-record May weather lately, the second highest May temperature is only 35.0
Likely: Warm temperatures in winter are very common recently
+14.4 in January 1880-it has been as warm as 12.8 in recent years. December, February, and March temperature records were all broken since 2010.
+18.3 in December 2012-It reached 60F/15.6C in 2015 and 2017 as well.
+32.2 in October 1976-it has been tied three times and high 20s are pretty common.
Other temperature records that are unlikely to break:
February 1877-the lowest temperature all monthwas just -9.4, average low is -11 to start the month for 1981-2010.
February -April 1878: February's coldest all month was -10.6 (2nd on record), March -2.8 (record), April +2.2 (record). Impressive lack of any below-normal weather.
September 1870 had a lowest temperature all month of +12.2, that is unlikely to be broken unless the weather station is moved to downtown. The average low is +6.7 at the end of September for 1981-2010.
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Post by sari on Sept 2, 2018 15:21:20 GMT -5
Highs:
January: 75F (24 January 1950). Very breakable, as 74F was reached in 2013 and 73F in 2015.
February: 83F (29 February 1972 - sort of cheating, as this would have been in March in a different year). Very breakable. The highest temperature ever reached in February, not including the 29th, was 79F on 22 February 2017.
March: 91F (21 March 1907). Breakable. 87F was reached on 19 March 2017.
April: 95F (29 April 1910. Interestingly, a frost, extremely late for KC, occurred just five days earlier). Breakable, but would require extreme heat on the scale of 2012 (which recorded 92F on the 25th.
May: 103F (30 May 1934). Extremely unlikely to be broken anytime soon, but possible. The only other 100F+ temperature ever recorded in May was 102F on the following day, 31 May 1934. May 2018, the 2nd-warmest (or warmest, depending on which station used) May on record, didn't even come close, falling short by 9F.
June: 108F (23 June 1934). Not likely to be broken in the lifetime of anyone alive today. 105F was reached in 2012 in 1980, and those are the only times that the record has even come close.
July: 112F (13 July 1954). Good luck ever breaking that! Only July 1980 and July 2012 have ever come close to 1954's level of heat. The month of July 1954 recorded 112F once, and maximums of 111F, 109F, and 108F were recorded twice each. The highest temperature reached in the month of July since 1954 has been 107F in 1974.
August: 113F (14 August 1936, all-time record high). Once again, good luck ever breaking that! August 1936 had only 0.25 inches of precipitation for the whole month and only four days in the entire month with maximums below 90F. The highest August temperatures since have been 109F in 1984 and 107F in 2011.
September: 109F (3 September 1947). Good luck ever breaking that! Only two 100F temperatures have ever been recorded beyond 15 September, yet somehow this extreme one managed to sneak in. Highest temperature since has been 106F in 2000, and aside from that one, September has not exceeded 102F since the 1950s.
October: 98F (7 October 1939). Unlikely to be broken anytime soon, though possible. October has only occasionally exceeded 90F since, happening most recently in 2006. The closest the record has ever come to being broken was KC's latest-ever 100F+, 103F on 28 September 1953.
November: 83F (6 November 1915 and 1 November 1937). Breakable. November seems reluctant to rise above about 77F in recent years, but a temperature of 82F was recorded in 2005.
December: 74F (6 December 1939 and 5 December 2001 and 3 December 2012). Very breakable, as can be seen by the three record dates. Temperatures exceeding the record were very likely present in the Kansas City region in 2012, just not at the official station.
Lows:
January: -20F (12 January 1912). Unlikely to break anytime soon. No temperature below -14F has been reached in January since 1924, and the coldest in the 21st century has been -11F in 2014 and again in 2018.
February: -22F (12 February 1899). The date of the record should say it all. -21F was reached in 1905, and -19F in 1982, but aside from those two, no other temperature colder than -13F has ever been recorded in the month of February. Coldest in the 21st century: -12F in 2011. (and somehow a site well to the south and at a lower elevation in Oklahoma managed to reach -31F a week later?!)
March: -10F (4 March 1978). Actually, possibly breakable? The cold records for March seem oddly recent. March's second-coldest temperature ever, -7F, happened as recently as 2014, as well as in 1998 and 1980. With many recent winters seemingly increasingly backloaded, though unlikely, it could happen.
April: 12F (3 April 1975). Breakable. 2018 came close, with 16F on the 7th, and 18F was recorded in 2007. It's difficult, and unlikely, but under just the right conditions, it could happen. (1975 had snow on the ground and calm winds, while 2018 and 2007 did not - in 2018's case, snow fell the following day.)
May: 27F (4 May 1907). This is similar to April in that it could happen, but would require perfect conditions. One of only two May snowfalls ever recorded happened on the 3rd, assisting in cooling that night. The coldest recent May temperature was 31F on the 2nd in 2005. Snow fell in Amarillo, TX on this same day.
June: 42F (4 June 1990). Breakable. 43F was recorded in 1983, and 44F as recently as 1998 and 2012. Even more extremely, 35F was reached on 29 May 1947, KC's latest sub-40F temperature.
July: 51F (5 July 1997). Harder to break, but possible. 54F was recorded in 2009, and 53F in 2013 and 2014.
August: 43F (28 August 1986). Unlikely to be broken soon. Lowest recent temperature was 49F in 2004 - though, 52F was reached on the 4th, extremely early in the month, in 2017, so perhaps it could happen.
September: 31F (22 September 1995). Unlikely, but possible. 33F was reached on the 19th in 1991, followed by a 31F on 6 October, and 30F was reached on 7 October 2012.
October: 17F (31 October 1993 and 30 October 1925). This doesn't seem very likely. Aside from these two, no temperature below 21F has been recorded in October, and these two were at the end of the month. Though, November 1991 recorded 12F on the 2nd, and had dropped to 1F by the 8th, so maybe it could happen - just very rarely.
November: 1F (28 November 1976 and 8 November 1991). It's possible. November seems to allow any temperature to happen anywhere within the month. The early date of the 1991 record shows that clearly. In more recent times, 6F was reached on the 18th in 2014, and 1911's famous Great Blue Norther caused a similar drop to 6F on the 11th. 3F was recorded on the 13th in 1986.
December: -23F (22-23 December 1989, all-time record low). Good luck with that! Like February, aside from 1983's -21F, no other temperature below -13F has ever been recorded in the month. The lowest in the 21st century was -9F in 2016.
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Post by Steelernation on Jan 21, 2022 2:35:34 GMT -5
Highs:
Key:
Easy—I expect it to be broke in the coming years
Possible—Not expecting it to fall but wouldn’t be surprised if it does
Unlikely—Hard to break, would be very surprised if it happened but could feasibly be broken
Very Unlikely—It’s possible but would take an extraordinary event
Impossible—Impossible to break
Jan: 75 (24 C) in 2015. Possible. Happened pretty recently so I could see it being broken.
Feb: 77 (25 C) in 2017. Possible. Happened pretty recently so I could see it being broken.
March: 81 (27 C) in 1921/2012. Easy. It’s come within 1 f of the record 6 times, since it’s been so close so often this shouldn’t be hard to break.
April: 89 (32 c) in 1922. Possible. Gotten to 88 a few times but most years aren’t too close, still could see it happening.
May: 97 (36 c) in 2000. Very Unlikely. This is the hardest record high IMO, only 1 other year has come within 5 f so quite anomalous but not impossible.
June: 102 (39 c) in 1954/2012. Possible. Gotten to 100 or 101 a bunch in recent years but still hard to get over the hump, altitude limits extreme heat here.
July: 103 (39 c) in 2005. Unlikely. With the altitude, every extra degree is a new challenge. I could see a tie happening as it’s gotten close a bunch but 104 seems like a stretch although not impossible.
August: 100 (38 c) in 1902. Possible. Why is this one so hard to beat? It’s gotten quite close in recent Septembers but this has stood for awhile. Possible though with all the 98-99 in August/September, at some point it’ll have to break through.
September: 99 (37 c) in 2019/2020. Possible. Extreme September heat has been the norm the past 5 years so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to break this record but I wouldn’t say easy since it’s such a recent phenomenon and would be a month later than the latest 100.
October: 88 (31 c) in 1926/1991. Possible. Came close in a couple recent years, think it’s harder than some of the others but wouldn’t be surprised if it were broken.
November: 81 (27 c) in 2006. Unlikely. Doesn’t seem super difficult but no other year has passed 79. Many high 70s in recent years but the extra few degrees seem like a big challenge.
December: 76 (24 c) in 1939. Very unlikely. This December which had record warmth in much of the region only got to 74 and before that, the last time within 5 f was 1980. I won’t rule it out but breaking this would be a big feat.
Lows:
January: -38 (-39 c) in 1930. Impossible. It hasn’t been below -20 since 1990 and even that cold would be a big challenge with the UHI.
February: -41 (-41 c) in 1951. Impossible. See January.
March: -31 (-35 c) in 1943. Impossible. See January.
April: -10 (-23 c) in 1945. Impossible. Hasn’t come within 18 f since the 70s, next.
May: 12 (-11 c) in 1917. Very unlikely. The 2nd coldest temp was in 2013 which is why it’s not impossible but this record is 5 f colder and quite the outlier event.
June: 29 (-2 c) in 1947. Impossible. June hasn’t been below 40 f since 2007 and I think the radiational cooling needed to set this record isn’t possible with the UHI now. Most cool June days are wet and cloudy with low diurnals.
July: 36 (2 c) in 1903. Impossible. The mean July min is in the 50s now, there’s been no recent years to come anywhere close and there’s the same problem as June.
August: 32 (0 c) in 1910. Impossible. Same issue as the other summer months.
September: 18 (-8 c) in 1985. Very unlikely. It’s not an ancient record so within the realm of possibility but recent years haven’t gotten below the high 20s. Would take a heavy snowfall and then radiational cooling or an extreme late month cold snap.
October: -8 (-22 c) in 1917. Impossible. With near perfect cold conditions, the lowest it got was -3 in 2020. How anomalous was that? It hasn’t been below 4, a full 7 f warmer since 1917. And now try getting 5 f colder than that, not happening.
November: -21 (-29 c) in 1916. Impossible. It doesn’t get that cold in any month nowadays with the UHI and this is already an outlier.
December: -35 (-37 c) in 1919. Impossible. See January.
Only April, May, September and October have even set DAILY record lows since 2000 and some months you’d have to go back to the 70s.
We did have the coldest October high on record in 2020 though.
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Post by greysrigging on Jan 21, 2022 3:35:25 GMT -5
^^ Interesting topic....I'll do one up for Darwin. I've always had an an interest in records, be they hot or cold, wet or dry. In my experience ( +40 years in Darwin ) we have had many more heat and wet records set than cold and dry ones....having said that, some of the outlier cold and dry ones have been quite substantial and noteworthy !
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2022 5:08:31 GMT -5
September would be pretty hard to beat in the UK. Temperatures above 35C are just very unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Not easy, but I think the highest ever temperature of 38.7C will be beaten soon. The last 20 years has seen several of the hottest days ever for the UK, and I'm fairly certain somewhere would've got close to 40C in July 2019 if it wasn't for the clouds to start building in the afternoon.
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Post by jgtheone on Jan 21, 2022 5:17:24 GMT -5
Melbourne Airport: Highs: Jan: 44.6°C (25th, 2003, but we have been close to this many times so very very likely) BROKEN 46.0°CFeb: 46.8°C (7th, 2009, freak event, pretty unlikely) Mar: 40.8°C (7th, 1991, fairly likely with the right conditions and at the start of the month) Apr: 34.5°C (10th, 2005, reasonably unlikely) May: 27.0°C (7th, 2002, likely as we got very close to this a couple of years ago) Jun: 21.8°C (8th, 2005, very unlikely as this is the only temp on record over 20C in June) Jul: 22.7°C (30th, 1975, again very unlikely, temps over 20°C in June are few and far between and it's also our oldest heat record) Aug: 25.6°C (29th, 1982, unlikely as we've only been close once) Sep: 30.2°C (12th, 2009, very recent record and it was equalled this year so very likely) Oct: 36.0°C (12th, 2006, equalled in the great October of 2015 and gets close every second year so quite likely) Nov: 39.6°C (24th, 1982, haven't been that close for a long time so extremely unlikely) BROKEN 41.6°CDec: 43.8°C (31st, 2005, quite unlikely as 40°C in December has been getting more rare) BROKEN 44.6°CLows: Jan: 6.0°C (27th, 1980, equal chance of likely and unlikely as I've observed many 7C nights in January) Feb: 4.8°C (10th, 1980, extremely unlikely, have never seen it close to this) Mar: 3.7°C (26th, 2005, unlikely but not very) Apr: 1.2°C (30th, 2009, kinda unlikely) May: 0.6°C (19th, 1981, likely as we've been close quite a few times and it's close to the April record) Jun: -0.9°C (15th, 1972, seems likely as again we've been close to this many times) Jul: -2.5°C (21st, 1982, extremely unlikely) Aug: -2.5°C (11th, 1986, extremely unlikely) Sep: -1.1°C (20th, 1970, kinda likely? Recently have had temps in the 0s and slightly below for September) Oct: 1.3°C (22nd, 2006, I think it's likely) BROKEN 1.0°CNov: 0.9°C (4th, 1980, the most unlikely one here. Would say it's impossible as it's even lower than October's.) Dec: 3.5°C (5th, 2011, the most recent one here but I don't think it'll get close any time soon. Unlikely.) Well, since this post: The Jan, Nov and Dec high records have all been broken. May got close as well. The Oct record low was broken, with the May and August records coming close. |
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Post by Ariete on Jan 21, 2022 10:29:37 GMT -5
Nov: 11.6C (2011, 2015, extremely likely to be hit. Much more northern locations have higher records)
Broken twice since this lol. New record is 13.7C for Artukainen, 14.0C for the airport.
Jan: 8.5C (reached in 2007, so might be broken in the near future)
Broken in 2020. New record 9.2C.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2022 10:51:43 GMT -5
Heathrow's November record of 18.6c is probably the weakest in any month, and should be easiest to break. There are parts of Scotland that have seen higher temperatures in December, than Heathrow has in November!
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Post by tij on Jan 21, 2022 11:01:06 GMT -5
For Mpls, breaking Dec/Mar/Jan is virtually impossible but Feb is possible.
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Post by greysrigging on Jan 21, 2022 19:09:09 GMT -5
Darwin Records: All are possibe to break given that at 12.4*S we vary little between means and extremes.
Highest Highs and Lowest Highs
Jan - 36.1c ( 2014 ) I remember this day, traipsing around a Wildlife Park with visitors from down south. Awful day ! Possibe ie we had a 35.1c recently.
Jan - 25.7c ( 1989 ) A 'soft' record and 33 years old ! Possible with a deep monsoonal overcast/wet day. Probably 9.00am reset doesn't help.
Feb - 36.0c ( 1972 ) unlikely/slightly possible, plenty of 35c's in Feb, a +36 ? hard to see it in a monsoonal month.
Feb - 24.8c ( 2011 ) this happened during a 3 day burst of 800mm rain. hard to beat this low, but possibe I guess
Mar - 36.0c ( 1942 ) oldest heat record so unlikely, but March has lots of +35c's historically, but can't quite get to 36c
Mar - 25.7c ( 1960 ) Another 'soft' record, thought a monsoonal month would have a lower max than this in the last 60 years. Possible
Apr - 36.7c ( 2003 ) Likely, lots of 35c's and some 36c's historically in this transitional month between wet and dry seasons.
Apr - 21.9c ( 2017 ) An outstanding low temp, dare I use the word 'unprecedented'? Until it happened I thought such a low max in April impossible.
May - 36.0c ( 1942 ) another older heat record. May can get a few +35c's, moreso in recent years. I would say possible.
May - 22.7c ( 1981 ) I remember this day, overcast light drizzle from an unseasonal north-west cloudband, Shivered all day at work. Unlikely
Jun - 35.0c ( 2020 ) Normally I would say unlikely, previous record was 34.5c several times in 80 years. Nowadays dry seasons are warmer. Likely
Jun - 22.7c ( 2007 ) Another north west cloudband cool drizzly day, Broke cold records all over the Top End. Shivered at work too. Unlikely.
Jul - 35.0c ( 2020 ) exactly same comments as the June heat record. 2020 first time 35c reached in June and July. Likely
Jul - 21.0c ( 1968 ) the all time coldest max temp in Darwin. Hard to see this one ever broken. Most unlikely
Aug - 37.0c ( 1971 ) at first glance I thought 'soft', but has stood for 50 years. Been close in the 21st century with some +36's. Possible
Aug - 25.1c ( 2007 ) a rainless month except for .04mm on this cool overcast day. Possible but unlikely. Below 25c max temps are rare in Darwin.
Sep - 38.0c ( 2021 ) Since 2000, Septembers have warmed some, more 'extreme' type days of +36's and +37's. Likely
Sep - 27.6c ( 1986 ) Hard to beat despite it being the highest cold max all months. Possible.
Oct - 38.9c ( 1982 ) All time Darwin record. Only 6 days above the old 100f in 80 years. Hard for the heat to push into the coast. Possible
Oct - 24.7c ( 2000 ) A wet non thunderstorm day 29mm. Cool south west wind from a north west cloudband broke records across the Top End. Unlikely
Nov - 37.3c ( 2018 ) Hmmmm, the last 20 or so years the 'build up' months have got hotter. +36's and +37's not uncommon. Likely
Nov - 25.6c ( 2010 ) A big overnight storm system lingering on throughout the day ? Except for the 9.00am reset, coulda broke this last year. Possible
Dec - 37.1c ( 2019 ) exactly the same comments as the Nov heat record. Likely
Dec - 24.0c ( 1954 ) tough one to crack, I would've said unlikely until Xmas Day hovered around 25c all day ( then the 9.00am reset 27.3c . Possible
Highest Lows and lowest Lows
Notes/- I don't use A/C for sleeping so I want no heat records to be broken whatsoever. Cold records ? break 'em all....lol
Jan - 29.3c ( 2021 ) Filthy nights sleep. Monsoonal break period, the 'drysoons', warm dryish winds from the Ocean, usually overcast. Likely
Jan - 20.2c ( 1985 ) Big thunderstorm ( 40mm ) dropped the temp this low. Unlikely/possible.
Feb - 29.7c ( 2020 ) same comments as for Jan. Likely
Feb - 17.2c ( 1949 ) I'm struggling to believe this one. A temp this low in a wet season month, although the last week of 1949 was rainless. Unlikely
Mar - 29.2c ( 2016 ) same comments as for Jan, Feb. Likely
Mar - 19.2c ( 1945 ) Similar comments as Feb...although this record occurred during a late March/early April monsoonal burst. Unlikely/possible
Apr - 28.3c ( 1958 ) April is a transitional month between the wet and dry seasons. Cooler mins are expected. Unlikely/possible
Apr - 16.0c ( 1943 ) A very old record I think will stand for some time to come. Mins below 20c in April very uncommon. Unlikely
May - 26.6c ( 1992 ) Mmmmm, I think unlikely although possible I suppose. May is a dry season month and nights below 20c are not unusual.
May - 13.8c ( 1990 ) I was at a mates 40th birthday party, too cold for a swim and we sat around the BBQ trying to get warm. Unlikely
Jun - 25.6c ( 2001 ) I woulda kicked the doona off on this warm winter/dry season night ! Possible given the warming trend since 2000.
Jun - 12.1c ( 1963 ) Again I'm saying unlikely, but we have had a few sub 13c temps as recently as 2011. Unlikely/possible
Jul - 26.6c ( 2010 ) what a shithouse min for the depths of winter ! Unlikely, but who can say really. Dry's are a bit warmer in 21st century.
Jul - 10.4c ( 1942 ) oldest min record, highly unlikely to be broken anytime soon ( although 1965 had a 10.8c and a monthly mean of 15.9c ! )
Aug - 25.6c ( 1981 ) unseasonal heavy rain/overcast conditions, about 30mm from memory. Looks 'soft' but is a dry season month. Possible.
Aug - 13.0c ( 2014 ) despite all of us thinking the 'dry' is warming, sometimes August reminds us it is a winter month. Unlikely/possible.
Sep - 27.2c ( 2009 ) Same comments as for April. Tending slightly to possible/likely.
Sep - 14.3c ( 2006 ) September also likes to remind us it is a dry season month. Unlikely/possible.
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Oct - 29.0c ( 2021 ) October is the month I have to substantially increase my beer intake so as to be able to sleep. Likely
Oct - 19.0c ( 2000 ) during the infamously cold north west cloud band that smashed records across the Kimberley and Top End. Unlikely.
Nov - 29.7c ( 1987 ) most likely...a plethora of +28's and +29's since 2000. Having said that a 30c at the Airport is a tough ask.
Nov - 19.3c ( 1950 ) most unlikely....hard to see this one broken.
Dec - 30.2c ( 2019 ) This was a 12 can night! I'd been in an A/C'd camp for several months and came home to this appalling min ! Likely.
Dec - 19.8c ( 1974 ) outstanding low min for Dec ! During a big 2 day downpour of over 200mm early in the month. Most unlikely.
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Post by alex992 on Jan 22, 2022 16:08:45 GMT -5
Record highs:
January - 56 F (13.3 C) (January 24, 1981). It's possible. It's hit 53 F (11.7 C) and 54 F (12.2 C) in January since 2000, so I think under a good setup we could potentially hit 57 F. Very hard to get temps above 50 F (10 C) here in January though.
February - 59 F (15.0 C) (February 27, 2016 and February 17, 2017). Possible. Hit 59 F (15.0 C) two Februaries in a row (2016 and 2017), one of our more recent records. I think the right setup in late February could push us to 60 F. The fact that the 59 F in 2017 happened on the 17th and not at the end of the month tells me it's certainly possible to go above 60 F at the very end of February.
March - 81 F (27.2 C) (March 23, 1910). Possible, but unlikely. We hit 78 F (25.6 C) in March 2012 and 79 F (26.1 C) in March 2007, but both of those were quite extreme warm spells. Not many Marches have gone above 70 F here, it'd take a massive warm spell to hit 82 F.
April - 96 F (35.6 C) (April 21, 1980). Unlikely. This happened in April 1980 when Grand Forks, ND hit 100 F (37.8 C), so it took a once in a lifetime type of April heat wave to get this warm. Although it did hit 92 F (33.3 C) in April 2004, but that's still fairly different from 96 F. 90+ F has only happened four times in April here.
May - 105 F (40.6 C) (May 31, 1934). Impossible. It's higher than June's record high (102 F / 38.9 C) and it's the only time it's hit 100 F in May here. This one might be the hardest record high to break.
June - 102 F (38.9 C) (June 24, 1988). Possible. I'm surprised June's record high is this low. It hit 101 F on June 7, 2011 here which is very early in the month, so the right setup in mid-late June could easily send us above 102 F IMO.
July - 107 F (41.7 C) (July 13, 1936). I wouldn't say impossible, but unlikely. It hasn't even hit 100 F in July since 2006 or 105 F since this instance, so getting a 108 F would be very difficult. Extreme heat here doesn't happen nearly as often as pre-1950.
August - 105 F (40.6 C) (August 15, 1936). See July. Hasn't hit 100 F in August since 1950 (a pretty shocking stat IMO) so it's practically impossible to hit 105 F it seems these days. Highest temp in August since 2000 is a rather paltry 96 F (35.6 C).
September - 106 F (41.1 C) (September 10, 1931). 100% Impossible. In fact, this one might be even harder than May's, especially since it happened on the 10th of the month and not at the very beginning. No other September has been hotter than 98 F (36.7 C) and since 2000, just like August, the hottest temp has been 96 F (35.6 C).
October - 90 F (32.2 C) (October 2, 1992 and October 2, 1953). This one is an interesting one, as it happened on the cusp of one of the coolest summers on record (1992). Matter of fact, if not for it hitting 92 F in August and June, this would've been the warmest temp of the year, as July and September only hit 83 F as the highest temp. Anyways, I'd say this one is possible. It's happened multiple times, and it's hit 85-86 F numerous times in October since 2000. I think under the right setup in early October, it could hit 91 F (32.8 C).
November - 76 F (24.4 C) (November 6, 2020). The most recent monthly record high. I'd say it's possible, as it has hit 70 F (21.1 C) or higher in November numerous times since 2000. Would be very difficult past the 6th to get anything higher than 70 F though.
December - 63 F (17.2 C) (December 6, 1939). If you would've asked me this before the ridiculous mild spell in mid-December we had just a few weeks back (where it 55 F / 12.8 C on December 15) I would've told you this is impossible, but it getting that mild that late in December tells me that maybe it is. Highest temp in December since 2000 besides that 55 F is only 50 F however, so I'll just leave this as a "maybe, but unlikely".
Now for cold records.....
January - -44 F (-42.2 C) (January 9, 1977). Possible, but unlikely. It's hit -37 F (-38.3 C) as recently as January 2009, but extreme cold weather is becoming more and more rare. Still, I think it's possible under the absolute right scenario. Most recently hit -40 F in 1996, but that was in February, in January last time we hit -40 F was 1994. Surrounding stations such as Rice have hit -38 F as recent as January 2019, and Melrose (well west, but still in the same county) hit -41 F in January 2019, so I think with perfect conditions we could do it. It'd be very hard for a -45 F though.
February - -40 F (-40.0 C) (February 2, 1996). Highly unlikely, next coldest temp recorded in February is -35 F (-37.2 C) so to go 6 F below the general trend would be extraordinary. It hasn't dropped below -30 F in February since then and the coldest in February since 2000 is -28 F (-33.3 C).
March - -32 F (-35.6 C) (March 1, 1962 and March 10, 1948). Impossible. The second coldest temp in March besides these two is -24 F (-31.1 C) and it hasn't dropped to even -20 F (-28.9 C) in March since 1995. There's been a few -17 F to -19 F readings since '95, most recently -19 F on March 4, 2019. Nothing anywhere -32 F though, and I think this is our hardest one to break.
April - -3 F (-19.4 C) (April 4, 1975). Highly unlikely, but not impossible. It most recently dropped to 0 F (-17.8 C) in April back on April 5, 2018, which is quite recent and quite close to the record low, so I think it's possible. Although April 2018 was quite extraordinary, had seven different days with lows below 10 F (-12.2 C), no other April has had more than 3.
May - 18 F (-7.8 C) (May 3, 1907). Unlikely, but possible. Historically, we've had several occurrences of lows in the 19-22 F (-7.2 C to -5.6 C) range in May, but the coldest since 2000 is only 25 F (-3.9 C) and it hasn't dropped below 25 F (-3.9 C) in May since 1990. So unlikely we'll get teens in May anytime soon, but it's certainly possible.
June - 32 F (0.0 C) (June 1, 1993). Very possible, considering it's gotten to 33 F (0.6 C) as late as June 20 before (in 1992). We've also had several lows in the 30s since 2000, the lowest being 35 F (1.7 C). I think this is one of the easier records to break.
July - 40 F (4.4 C) (July 7, 1972 and July 1, 1969). Very possible. It dropping into the 40s here in July is not rare, and lower 40s (5-7 C) have happened quite frequently throughout history. It's dropped to 42 F (5.6 C) as recently as July 2013 and in July 2009 as well. This is one of the easier ones to break as well IMO.
August - 33 F (0.6 C) (August 31, 1974 and August 21, 2004). Possible, considering it's happened pretty early in the month (August 21) and pretty recently in 2004, and historically, there's been a fair amount of 34-36 F lows in August. Although that 33 F is easily the coldest August temp since 2000, the fact it happened on August 21 makes me think that under the right scenario at the end of the month, we could break this record fairly easily.
September - 18 F (-7.8 C) (September 22, 1974 and September 28, 1942). Possible, but unlikely. There's been a fair amount of 20-21 F lows in September historically, and the fact that 18 F happened on September 22 makes me think that near the very end of the month, it's possible to get colder than that. Coldest temp since 2000 is 24 F (-4.4 C) in 2000, and since 1990 is 22 F (-5.6 C) which isn't terrible far off. Still, we've had some rather warm Septembers recently, which seems to be a trend.
October - 5 F (-15.0 C) (October 27, 1976). Possible. We've had a fair amount of 6-10 F (-14.4 C to -12.2 C) lows in October throughout our history, and it's dropped down to 10 F (-12.2 C) in October as recent as October 2020. I think a low of 4 F could happen near the end of the month under the right situation.
November: -23 F (-30.6 C) (November 30, 1905). Highly unlikely to impossible. We've seen our fair share of bitter cold in November historically, but that's been lacking a lot in recent years, our lowest temp in November since 2000 is only -7 F (-21.7 C) and it hasn't dropped to -15 F in November since 1985, and -20 F since 1964. I have a hard time seeing a -24 F in November anytime soon.
December: -41 F (-40.6 C) (December 19, 1983). Impossible, although this one is deceiving. Since it happened fairly early (December 19) in the month, you'd think it could happen near New Year's Eve under the right conditions. But this is by far the coldest temp in December we've ever had, as the second coldest is -35 F (-37.2 C) which happened the very next day (December 20, 1983), and hasn't dropped below -34 F (-36.7 C) in December outside of 1983, although -34 F has happened more than once in December, and most recently in 1996. This goes to show you how extraordinary that -41 F was. Lowest since 2000 in December is -28 F (-33.3 C), but that's a pretty far cry from -41 F. Even in January, which has an average low 7 F colder than December, -40 F is hard to come by, and hasn't happened in nearly 30 years. So coupled with March, I think this is the hardest one to break.
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Post by desiccatedi85 on Jan 22, 2022 19:07:42 GMT -5
Using my closest station, Mineola, which has a PoR from 1938-2011, there's a couple that have likely been broken if the station didn't close.
Record Highs (using Fahrenheit)
January: 71 in 2007, unlikely but possible, also hit 70 in 2002 February: 73 in 1997, has presumably been smashed in 2018 when it hit 79 @ LGA, stations in North Jersey hit 80s. As far 80s in February here, I doubt it getting higher than that 79 anywhere on LI. Was a mega-ridge here, very anomalous
March: 87 in 1945, another one that's almost impossible to break. Only 4 Marches have even hit 80s here April: 94 in 2002, definitely possible, came close hitting 92 in 2010 May: 97 in 1996, the most breakable one here, pretty likely. Tied in 2017 @ LGA, and Mineola hit 96 in 2010, 1975, and 1962.
June: 101 in 2010, decent possibility to break. Tied in 1988 and 1952, and in 2017 @ LGA. July: 108 in 2010, unlikely to break, previous record was just 103, would require a large drought somewhere near here to break. Recent trends in the East are wetter. But looking at what happened last summer in the PNW, I guess anything is possible. August: 105 in 2001, almost unbreakable, hasn't even hit 100 here since 2006. September: 97 in 1953, this one is possible, came close with 95 in 2010. October: 89 in 2007, has presumably been broken in 2019 when it hit 95 @ LGA. With weaker sun angles, this one's pretty unbreakable.
November: 83 in 1950, also unbreakable, this is the only time 80s have been recorded here this month. December: 76 in 1998, nearly unbreakable, hit 72 here in 2001 and 72 in 2015 @ LGA. Next highest here in December is 68.
Record Lows (using Fahrenheit)
January: -4 in 1994, sorta breakable because it's pretty recent, but has only hit negatives in January one other time, in 1976. February: -7 in 1943, unbreakable, has only hit negatives in February in 1961 as well as in 2016 @ LGA. March: 5 in 1980, unbreakable, last March with a single digit was 1984. April: 13 in 1982, easily the most unbreakable one on here, as the second coldest it ever got in April was 25.
May: 34 in 1983, unlikely but possible, hit 35 in 1996 and 38 in 2008, also hit mid 30s here in May 2020. June: 43 in 2001, more likely because it's fairly recent as far as cold records go. July: 50 in 1979, more likely, was tied in 1986 and hit 51 in 2001. August: 46 in 1994, more likely as it has occurred two other times, in 1986 and 1976. September: 38 in 1993, pretty unlikely although it's not super old, as recent Septembers have been very warm. October: 27 in 1974, unlikely, was tied in 1976 but the last October with a freeze was 2011 and no 20s since 1992. November: 17 in 1938, unlikely as it's so old, but 1993 came close, hitting 19. December: -2 in 1942, unlikely, there has only been one December this century to go below 15, that was 2004. Though hit 10 @ LGA in 2017.
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