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Post by Ariete on Nov 28, 2017 13:42:25 GMT -5
We had this thread on C-D, so why not bring it here?
So I'll go with Turku.
Highs,
Jan: 8.5C (reached in 2007, so might be broken in the near future)
Feb: 10.2C (1990, possible, but 10C has been recorded only once in Turku)
Mar: 15.8C (reached in 2007. Mariehamn hit 17.4C this year, so very breakable)
Apr: 24.5C (1993, unlikely to be broken due to being close to the sea)
May: 30.0C (1995, highly probable. Utsjoki has a higher record high than Turku)
June: 32.0C (1977, highly probable. Hit 31.6C in 2011)
July: 35.9C (1914, extremely unlikely, as the record is over 100 years old)
Aug: 32.4C (2014, recently broken, totally possible in the near future)
Sep: 27.8C (1938, unlikely. Needs a real heavy warm pulse)
Oct: 18.9C (1973, very likely. In 2011 Turku hit 20.4C at 30 September)
Nov: 11.6C (2011, 2015, extremely likely to be hit. Much more northern locations have higher records)
Dec: 10.6C (2015, extremely likely, as the record is only a year old)
Lows,
Jan: -35.5C (1941, extremely unlikely to be broken)
Feb: -35.2C (1966, extremely unlikely to be broken)
Mar: -32.8C (1942, totally impossible to ever be broken)
Apr: -21.0C (1941, totally impossible to ever be broken)
May: -6.6C (1942, now when the airport station is defunct this is also unbreakable)
June: -2.2C (1951, highly unlikely to be broken)
July: 2.0C (1964, extremely unlikely to be broken)
Aug: 0.2C (1984, extremely unlikely to be broken)
Sep: -6.9C (1976, very unlikely to be broken)
Oct: -15.0C (1992, quite recently broken, but as 1992 and 2002 were according to the FMI two coldest months that should happen only once in 100 years, I think we're clear for the next 200 years)
Nov: -22.3C (1946, a few records close to it since, quite breakable)
Dec: -33.8C (1978, extremely unlikely to be broken)
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Post by Lommaren on Nov 28, 2017 13:59:37 GMT -5
Norrköping (very similar to here): Jan: 12.1°C, possible but will have to be very intense SW winds early in the month. Feb: 13.7°C, possible right at the end of the month with the right patterns, but unlikely. Mar: 18.6°C, beatable for sure during the second half of the month, especially with strong winds. Apr: 27.5°C, it's a tough nut to crack, one of the harder ones. May: 28.6°C, well it was set in 2017 so certainly beatable. With the right wind patterns, a 30°C could happen in an area even remotely away from the shore by May 30. Jun: 33.0°C, why not? Gotta take some wild luck first, but it happens occasionally to get above 31°C in June so... who knows? It's a hard one. Jul: 33.9°C, absolutely beatable. A bit surprising very few places in Sweden has ever reached 35°C that month when the heat bursts can be intensed. Localized and a bit random. Aug: 34.8°C, hmm... nah... inland early in the month maybe but 1975 was something else. Might happen but will take something special. Sep: 27.6°C, bonkers it hasn't happened yet. Latvia has recorded above 30°C in that month, so Norrköping is overdue at least a 29°C temp. Oct: 21.0°C, will take a little luck on Oct 1 for it not to fall in September, but on the right year a 21.5°C reading is entirely manageable. Nov: 15.2°C, same there, Nov 1 and a bit of luck. Probably needs intense clouds during multiple nights with some sunny days before too. Dec: 13.3°C, more difficult than November but not completely impossible. Jan: -28.1°C, hard, but during a cold wave late in the month? Not totally impossible. Would take multiple clear nights in a row. Feb: -33.5°C, no, boke, next question  Mar: -24.4°C, about as likely to be broken as Jeremy Corbyn to embrace capitalism. Apr: -13.2°C, after last April, I refuse to say never on that one. May: -4.0°C, nearly broke early last May (-3.7°C) when Norrköping almost set heat and cold records in the same month! Easily attainable with enough northerlies and clear nights. Jun: -0.1°C, naaaaah.... Jul: 4.9°C, less than 4°C above mean minimum but I struggle to see it happen. I'd also hate it! Aug: 2.3°C, Eskilstuna had 0.0°C in 2013, but that's half a degree to the north. Having said that, would a 2°C reading late in the month be bonkers unimaginable? No. Sep: -4.6°C, no I don't think so. Too maritime. Oct: -9.0°C, very hard to see this happen. Nov: -15.9°C, ditto, it would take something very special. Dec: -24.7°C, longest nights, so with the right patterns way more likely than the similar March one. Also got beaten in 2010. |
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Post by Ariete on Nov 28, 2017 14:15:20 GMT -5
Sep: -6.9C (1976, very unlikely to be broken) Seeing as -1.1C has been the record low at Artukainen since 2003 and the average record low is 1.1C, I reclassify the Sep record as unbreakable. |
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Post by Lommaren on Nov 28, 2017 14:18:47 GMT -5
Seeing as -1.1C has been the record low at Artukainen since 2003 and the average record low is 1.1C, I reclassify the Sep record as unbreakable. Visby got a -7°C night in May 2017, so maybe that May record of yours would be attainable? I guess Visby would suffer from maritime delays of warmup though which might exacerbate the effects of multiple clear nights in early May though... |
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Post by Ariete on Nov 28, 2017 14:30:01 GMT -5
Visby got a -7°C night in May 2017, so maybe that May record of yours would be attainable? I guess Visby would suffer from maritime delays of warmup though which might exacerbate the effects of multiple clear nights in early May though... Not anymore as the airport frost hollow is defunct. Artukainen's record low is -3.7C. At the airport -7C would've been possible. Also note that the May cold snap this year in Sweden was an once in 100 years event. |
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Post by Ariete on Nov 30, 2017 14:46:47 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2017 14:59:30 GMT -5
Interesting thread.
Rare records that are hard to break in Buxton:
24.7°C on 1st October 2011
This was at the culmination of a continental warm plume with clear skies at the end of September 2011, resulting in an unusually warm airmass over the UK. While lowland areas saw temps to 26-29°C, Buxton remained sunny (often we get cloud being further west) and reached this impressive record temperature which is unlikely to be reached at such a late date for a long time.
32.7°C on 3rd August 1990
I believe we have only surpassed 30°C on two occasions since this time, and this one was by far the biggest margin over 30°C. It was the hottest day over a wide part of the UK. Other occasions with record hottest temperatures saw only records in SE locations. This particular day had the most widespread heat of any day in UK history with temperatures reaching 37°C in Gloucestershire. Even at our altitude we shot to over 90°F, not to be repeated since. Quite possibly not happening again for decades.
18.0°C on 1st November 2015
A rare combination of a mild airmass, most likely a temperature inversion (giving an advantage to higher than sea level locations) and clear skies with sun all day. November usually sees highs only around 11-13°C in any month. This particular day beat the record by a substantial margin. It is very unlikely to be exceeded again in November in the near future. Mild days in November typically see fog and low cloud and indeed some places did have this on this day.
19.6°C in March 2012
The whole month was about 3°C above average due to prolonged high pressure in a good position to give clear south easterly winds. This beat the record in March and is unlikely to be repeated any time soon.
-24°C in February (year unknown).
This is apparently the all time record low in Buxton. Buxton, despite its altitude, is one of the least likely places in England to get very low temperatures due to its slight elevation, high humidity and cloud cover. Lowland flat areas often get far colder lows in cold snaps. So this record took some doing. And since then we have only got down to about -15°C so it could many decades or even not until the next ice age that we get such a cold temperature again.
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Post by Donar on Nov 30, 2017 15:20:29 GMT -5
I'll do Frankfurt Airport (since 1949):
Highs:
Jan: 15.9 (2015)
Feb: 17.8 (1958)
Mar: 24.7 (1968)
Apr: 30.3 (1949)
May: 33.2 (2017)
Jun: 37.5 (2002)
Jul: 38.8 (2015)
Aug: 38.7 (2015)
Sep: 32.8 (2016)
Oct: 28.0 (1985)
Nov: 19.1 (2015)
Dec: 16.3 (1989)
Easy: January, May, July, August, September, December
Medium: February, March, April, June, October, November
Hard: -
Lows:
Jan: -21.6 (1968)
Feb: -19.6 (1956)
Mar: -13.0 (1971)
Apr: -7.1 (1986)
May: -2.8 (1960)
Jun: 0.1 (1975)
Jul: 2.8 (1984)
Aug: 2.5 (1978)
Sep: -0.3 (1979)
Oct: -6.3 (1950)
Nov: -11.5 (1956)
Dec: -17.0 (1962)
Easy: March (2005 came very close), October (2012 came very close), December (2009 came very close)
Medium: February, November
Hard: January, April, May, June, July, August, September
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Post by alex992 on Nov 30, 2017 15:25:10 GMT -5
Records that I think will be easy to break:
Our 100 F (38 C) record high. Back in late April 2015, it got up to 97 F (36 C) here and it even reached 99 F (37 C) at Ft. Lauderdale Executive Airport. I think if we can reach 97-99 F (36-37 C) in late April it should surely be easy to reach 100+ F at some point in June/July/August or even late May.
The 96 F (36 C) record high in May, for the same reason stated above. April has a higher record high than May, lol.
The 89 F (32 C) record high in February. February tends to be a really dry month and the beginning of the season where we can get dry westerlies which spike up temps. I can definitely see a 90 F (32 C) possible towards the late part of the month when the sun is strengthening rapidly.
Records that are hard to break:
Pretty much any record low. Our all-time record low is 27 F (-3 C) yet it hasn't dropped below 44 F (7 C) since February 2015 here and winters seemed to have really warmed up the last few years. I really hope it's just a phase and not something permanent.
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Post by Steelernation on Nov 30, 2017 15:41:08 GMT -5
Possible:
94 (34.4) in May
Should have been set along with literally every other place in the whole fucking northeast:
•72 (22.2 C) in December. It hit 69 (20.6 C) in 2015, many other places set record highs
•73 (22.8 C) in February. Rochester was pretty much the only place not to either hit 70 (21 C) or set the February record high in 2017. The highest that month was 67 (19.4 C)
Impossible:
Everything else
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Post by Nidaros on Dec 3, 2017 17:07:10 GMT -5
Unbrekable:
May record low -9.6C. From 1900, 117 years old record. Never been anywhere near that cold later. Almost hard to believe it happened. Even the airport, out of the city, recordings since 1946, has never been colder than -4.7C, which was in 1981.
Need a new ice-age or a supervolcano or similar to break it.
Easy: May high of 27.9C (airport) should not be hard. Namsos a little further north has seen 30C in May. Even Finnmark in the far north has seen 30C in May.
Also the March high of 15.7C (airport) should be fairly easy to break, as should the Dec high of 13.2C
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Post by Babu on Dec 3, 2017 17:35:26 GMT -5
Hardest to beat: -38'C in February probably won't happen. Ditto -33'C in December or -28'C in November or -32'C in March or -26'C in April. -9'C in May is plausible. We were only a couple of degrees off this May, but then again the cold snap this May was unlike anything I've experienced before.
33.5'C in June is also a very very tough nut to crack and was set in like the 1800's. 18.8'C in October seems tough too.
The easiest to break is probably the pathetic 14.2'C in March, and 26.6'C in May. 9'C in February seems pretty easy too as well as 24.5'C in September.
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Post by shalop on Dec 10, 2017 23:13:12 GMT -5
Knoxville's record low of -24F (-31C) is very hard to break I'd say. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knoxville,_Tennessee#Climate I don't think that it has ever even gotten within 7F of that mark before or after that event. Another one is NYC's -15F. Not happening. |
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Post by jgtheone on Dec 11, 2017 0:11:37 GMT -5
Melbourne Airport:
Highs:
Jan: 44.6°C (25th, 2003, but we have been close to this many times so very very likely)
Feb: 46.8°C (7th, 2009, freak event, pretty unlikely)
Mar: 40.8°C (7th, 1991, fairly likely with the right conditions and at the start of the month)
Apr: 34.5°C (10th, 2005, reasonably unlikely)
May: 27.0°C (7th, 2002, likely as we got very close to this a couple of years ago)
Jun: 21.8°C (8th, 2005, very unlikely as this is the only temp on record over 20C in June)
Jul: 22.7°C (30th, 1975, again very unlikely, temps over 20°C in June are few and far between and it's also our oldest heat record)
Aug: 25.6°C (29th, 1982, unlikely as we've only been close once)
Sep: 30.2°C (12th, 2009, very recent record and it was equalled this year so very likely)
Oct: 36.0°C (12th, 2006, equalled in the great October of 2015 and gets close every second year so quite likely)
Nov: 39.6°C (24th, 1982, haven't been that close for a long time so extremely unlikely)
Dec: 43.8°C (31st, 2005, quite unlikely as 40°C in December has been getting more rare)
Lows:
Jan: 6.0°C (27th, 1980, equal chance of likely and unlikely as I've observed many 7C nights in January)
Feb: 4.8°C (10th, 1980, extremely unlikely, have never seen it close to this)
Mar: 3.7°C (26th, 2005, unlikely but not very)
Apr: 1.2°C (30th, 2009, kinda unlikely)
May: 0.6°C (19th, 1981, likely as we've been close quite a few times and it's close to the April record)
Jun: -0.9°C (15th, 1972, seems likely as again we've been close to this many times)
Jul: -2.5°C (21st, 1982, extremely unlikely)
Aug: -2.5°C (11th, 1986, extremely unlikely)
Sep: -1.1°C (20th, 1970, kinda likely? Recently have had temps in the 0s and slightly below for September)
Oct: 1.3°C (22nd, 2006, I think it's likely)
Nov: 0.9°C (4th, 1980, the most unlikely one here. Would say it's impossible as it's even lower than October's.)
Dec: 3.5°C (5th, 2011, the most recent one here but I don't think it'll get close any time soon. Unlikely.)
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Post by alex992 on Dec 14, 2017 17:47:56 GMT -5
^ Interesting how your September and October record lows are on the 20th and 22nd, respectively. I suspect if a similar set-up to when those occurred would happen at the beginning of those months you could easily break those record lows.
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Post by AJ1013 on Aug 26, 2018 22:53:59 GMT -5
For Tucson
Highs
January: 88F(31C) 1927. Extremely unlikely, record was set over 90 years ago and most Januaries don't even see 80F
February: 92F(33C) 1957. Unlikely but more possible than January.
March: 99F(37C) 1988. Pretty unlikely. Has only gotten to 95F in March since this record was set.
April: 104F (40C) 1989. Pretty unlikely. Has only gotten to 100F 3 times in April since 1896.
May: 111F(44C) 1910. Unlikely but possible. Got to 109F in May pretty recently.
June: 117F (48.5C) 1990. Unlikely but possible. Would take something special.
July: 114F (46.5C) 1995. Seems pretty easy. Just need a delayed monsoon and a good heatwave.
August: 112F (45C) 1993. Pretty unlikely. Hard to get these temps during the monsoon.
September: 107F (41.5C) 2000. Very easy. Surprised this one's not like 109F.
October: 102F (39C) 2010. Very possible and was broken recently.
November: 94F (35C) 1924. Very unlikely. Would take something special.
December: 85F (29.5C) 1939. Very easy. Many recent Decembers have gotten into the low 80's
Lows
January: 6F (-15C) 1913. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
February: 17F (-9C) 1899. Possible. Got to 18F in 2011.
March: 20F (-7C) 1965. Very unlikely. Did get to 24F sort of recently though.
April: 27F (-3C) 1945. Almost no chance
May: 32F (0C) 1899. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
June: 43F (6C) 1908. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
July: 49F (9.5C) 1911. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
August: 55F (13C) 1917. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
September: 43F (6C) 1913. HAHAHAHAHAHA
October: 26F (-3.5C) 1971. Extremely unlikely
November: 19F (-7C) 1921. Extremely unlikely
December: 10F (-12C) 1901. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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Post by firebird1988 on Aug 27, 2018 22:19:00 GMT -5
I already know that Phoenix is most likely never going to set a Record Low ever again, we haven't had any since 1990, and lows have only continued to get warmer with the UHI growing.
Aa far as Record High's, we've set a few notable Records just in the 17 years I've lived here. I'm still waiting for us to hit 48.9°C again (120°F), we haven't done it since 1995, though hit 48.3°C in June of 2013 and last June
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Post by Steelernation on Aug 28, 2018 22:12:44 GMT -5
Jan: 74 (23 C) in 1950 Extremely unlikely. This was a freak event, gotten to the upper 60s in 2008 and 2013 but nothing threatening.
Feb: 73 (23 C) in 1997 Extremely unlikely. We just had the 2 warmest Februarys on record, doubt we’ll get such a warm February soon and if these 2 couldn’t get the record I don’t know if we ever will.
March: 86 (30 C) in 1905. Extremely unlikely. The record setting 2012 didn’t come close, Marches also have warmed little compared to other months
April: 93 (34 C) in 1990. Very unlikely. Lots of recent Aprils have gotten to 86-87, but none have come close to the record.
May: 94 (34 C) in 1987. Easy. 7 Mays since 2006 have hit 90, several have hit 92. Since we’ve come so close this often, it should be beaten soon and it’s not a very high one either.
June: 100 (38 C) in 1953. LMAO.
July: 102 (39 C) in 1936. LMAO.
Aug: 99 (37 C) in 1948. LMAO.
Sept: 99 (37 C) in 1953. LMAO
Oct: 91 (33 C) in 1951. Very unlikely. We hit 91 at the very end of September last year so a few days later would set the record.
Nov: 81 (27 C) in 1950. Extremely unlikely. Only 2015 has come close this century, but not quite impose.
Dec: 72 (22 C) in 1982. Possible. 2001, 2012, and 2015 all hit at least 68 so the potential is definitely there.
Record lows:
Jan: -17 (-27 C) in 1994. LMAO.
Feb: -22 (-30 C) in 1934. LMAO.
March: -9 (-23 C) in 2014. Very unlikely. Happened recently though so possible.
April: 7 (-14 C) in 1923. LMAO.
May: 26 (-3 C) in 1979. Extremely unlikely. 2006 got to 30 a handful of years have gotten to 32 but nothing really threatening.
June: 35 (2 C) in 1949. LMAO.
July: 42 (6 C) in 1963. Extremely unlikely. 2001 got down to 45 but nothing else has been close.
Aug: 36 (2 C) in 1965. LMAO.
Sept: 28 (-2 C) in 1947. LMAO.
Oct: 19 (-7 C) in 1879. LMAO.
Nov: 1 (-17 C) in 1875. LMAO. Stood for so long and well below the next coldest. Definite freak event.
Dec: -16 (-27 C) in 1942. LMAO.
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Post by jgtheone on Aug 29, 2018 1:55:02 GMT -5
Lows: Jan: 6.0°C (27th, 1980, equal chance of likely and unlikely as I've observed many 7C nights in January) Feb: 4.8°C (10th, 1980, extremely unlikely, have never seen it close to this) Mar: 3.7°C (26th, 2005, unlikely but not very) Apr: 1.2°C (30th, 2009, kinda unlikely) May: 0.6°C (19th, 1981, likely as we've been close quite a few times and it's close to the April record) Jun: -0.9°C (15th, 1972, seems likely as again we've been close to this many times) Jul: -2.5°C (21st, 1982, extremely unlikely) Aug: -2.5°C (11th, 1986, extremely unlikely)Sep: -1.1°C (20th, 1970, kinda likely? Recently have had temps in the 0s and slightly below for September) Oct: 1.3°C (22nd, 2006, I think it's likely) Nov: 0.9°C (4th, 1980, the most unlikely one here. Would say it's impossible as it's even lower than October's.) Dec: 3.5°C (5th, 2011, the most recent one here but I don't think it'll get close any time soon. Unlikely.) Well, we got very close to this one today! ^ Interesting how your September and October record lows are on the 20th and 22nd, respectively. I suspect if a similar set-up to when those occurred would happen at the beginning of those months you could easily break those record lows. Possibly, I think the 2006 record was also during a record sunny October (305 hours) so there were heaps of clear nights to take advantage of. |
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Post by firebird1988 on Aug 30, 2018 8:42:19 GMT -5
J an: 74 (23 C) in 1950 Extremely unlikely. This was a freak event, gotten to the upper 60s in 2008 and 2013 but nothing threatening. Feb: 73 (23 C) in 1997 Extremely unlikely. We just had the 2 warmest Februarys on record, doubt we’ll get such a warm February soon and if these 2 couldn’t get the record I don’t know if we ever will. March: 86 (30 C) in 1905. Extremely unlikely. The record setting 2012 didn’t come close, Marches also have warmed little compared to other months April: 93 (34 C) in 1990. Very unlikely. Lots of recent Aprils have gotten to 86-87, but none have come close to the record. May: 94 (34 C) in 1987. Easy. 7 Mays since 2006 have hit 90, several have hit 92. Since we’ve come so close this often, it should be beaten soon and it’s not a very high one either. June: 100 (38 C) in 1953. LMAO. July: 102 (39 C) in 1936. LMAO. Aug: 99 (37 C) in 1948. LMAO.Sept: 99 (37 C) in 1953. LMAOOct: 91 (33 C) in 1951. Very unlikely. We hit 91 at the very end of September last year so a few days later would set the record. Nov: 81 (27 C) in 1950. Extremely unlikely. Only 2015 has come close this century, but not quite impose. Dec: 72 (22 C) in 1982. Possible. 2001, 2012, and 2015 all hit at least 68 so the potential is definitely there. Record lows: Jan: -17 (-27 C) in 1994. LMAO.Feb: -22 (-30 C) in 1934. LMAO.March: -9 (-23 C) in 2014. Very unlikely. Happened recently though so possible. April: 7 (-14 C) in 1923. LMAO. May: 26 (-3 C) in 1979. Extremely unlikely. 2006 got to 30 a handful of years have gotten to 32 but nothing really threatening. June: 35 (2 C) in 1949. LMAO.July: 42 (6 C) in 1963. Extremely unlikely. 2001 got down to 45 but nothing else has been close. Aug: 36 (2 C) in 1965. LMAO. Sept: 28 (-2 C) in 1947. LMAO. Oct: 19 (-7 C) in 1879. LMAO. Nov: 1 (-17 C) in 1875. LMAO. Stood for so long and well below the next coldest. Definite freak event. Dec: -16 (-27 C) in 1942. LMAO.You shouldn't laugh at that August record, as Shitchester did hit 97°F(36.1°C) on August 14th of 2002 (I was there visiting my folks the day it happened, it was dry by Rochester standards as well, dews were in the 50's(low 10's Celcius) |
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