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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 12:05:16 GMT -5
Which of these unlikely scenarios would be most likely to occur this year?
A) A 40c temp in SE England this summer.
B) London warmer than Melbourne on Xmas day.
C) An F4 tornado somewhere in southern England.
D) Severe thunderstorm bringing 200mm rainfall in an hour somewhere in England.
E) -30c low recorded in the Highlands in December.
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Post by Lommaren on Jan 30, 2018 12:08:54 GMT -5
Never underestimate Failbourne summers and SW winds from the Azores.
B, easily!
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Post by boombo on Jan 30, 2018 12:09:45 GMT -5
A, D and E have never happened, apparently an F4 tornado has hit Portsmouth before but more than 200 years ago, so B has to be the most plausible, because it's all a matter of timing when the London mild spells/Melbourne cold spells happen.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 12:11:04 GMT -5
The most severe rainfall from a storm in the UK delivered 175mm in 2 hrs in Hampstead, 14 Aug 1975.
Heathrow recorded nothing that day!
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Post by boombo on Jan 30, 2018 12:12:46 GMT -5
The most severe rainfall from a storm in the UK delivered 175mm in 2 hrs in Hampstead, 14 Aug 1975. Heathrow recorded nothing that day! Did you mean to say 200 mm in an hour though or 100 mm in two hours? 200 mm in an hour is probably the least likely of any of those events. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 12:14:43 GMT -5
The most severe rainfall from a storm in the UK delivered 175mm in 2 hrs in Hampstead, 14 Aug 1975. Heathrow recorded nothing that day! Did you mean to say 200 mm in an hour though or 100 mm in two hours? 200mm in an hour. Other than B and C, they are all things that haven't happened yet but could under exceptional circumstances. Lots of summer thunderstorms have rainfall rates of 200+mm/hour, they just don't last long enough. 100mm in 2 hrs probably happens every time there is a supercell storm, just a case of the storm passing a rainfall recorder. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 12:17:18 GMT -5
D. It's nearly happened before in Maidenhead Berkshire.
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Post by knot on Jan 30, 2018 12:18:20 GMT -5
E, without a bloody doubt! The Grand Solar Minimum can weaken the gulf stream, so perhaps a repeat of the 1927-1928 event or even the 1895 event would be possible. Could even match or surpass the Little Ice Age of 1645-1715, particularly 1683-1684.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 12:21:18 GMT -5
If I had to rate them in order or most to least likely..
B
D
A
C
E
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Post by knot on Jan 30, 2018 12:33:06 GMT -5
If I had to rate them in order or most to least likely.. B D A C E –27.2° C (the modern UK minimum record) was recorded in 30th December, 1995 at Altnaharra. Seeing as the modern UK summers are tending even cooler, 40° C is honestly much more unlikely to happen! AGW vegan gayshit is not good for you, so please don't ride its dick   |
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Post by knot on Jan 30, 2018 12:35:23 GMT -5
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Post by boombo on Jan 30, 2018 12:36:47 GMT -5
I wonder if the weather stations in Braemar, Altnaharra etc are in the absolute perfect places to pick up the coldest temperatures under inversion conditions?
Not saying it will happen this year, but I bet -27C in one place could easily be -30C a mile away if the topography is right. There could be all kinds of subtle micro-microclimates in the area that aren't getting recorded.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 12:37:28 GMT -5
If I had to rate them in order or most to least likely.. B D A C E –27.2° C (the modern UK minimum record) was recorded in 30th December, 1995 at Altnaharra. Seeing as the modern UK summers are tending even cooler, 40° C is honestly much more unlikely to happen! AGW vegan gayshit is not good for you, so please don't ride its dick UK summers aren't getting cooler. They are getting cloudier in the last decade but the 91-20 averages will be warmer than the 81-10 averages. It probably reached 40c in the summers of 1540 and 1666. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 12:39:57 GMT -5
There could be all kinds of subtle micro-microclimates in the area that aren't getting recorded. You can say the same thing about the heat records though. 40c was almost certainly recorded somewhere in 2003, and possibly in 2006/2015, but without an official station on every part of the country, we will never know. |
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Post by boombo on Jan 30, 2018 12:44:21 GMT -5
There could be all kinds of subtle micro-microclimates in the area that aren't getting recorded. You can say the same thing about the heat records though. 40c was almost certainly recorded somewhere in 2003, and possibly in 2006/2015, but without an official station on every part of the country, we will never know. Not really, temperatures definitely vary more within a shorter distance in frost hollows. I think 37+ was pretty widespread across a big area the day Gravesend got to 38.5? It's hard to see why anywhere would have been 1.5C warmer considering that Gravesend benefits by having a slight foehn effect from the North Downs. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 12:50:13 GMT -5
You can say the same thing about the heat records though. 40c was almost certainly recorded somewhere in 2003, and possibly in 2006/2015, but without an official station on every part of the country, we will never know. Not really, temperatures definitely vary more within a shorter distance in frost hollows. I think 37+ was pretty widespread across a big area the day Gravesend got to 38.5? It's hard to see why anywhere would have been 1.5C warmer considering that Gravesend benefits by having a slight foehn effect from the North Downs. If you had a weather station at every house in London, I think some would have recorded above 40c. The 1540 and 1541 summers sounded very extreme; apparently rain only fell on 6 days from Feb to Sep 1540, and the Thames was dry above London Bridge. In Summer 1541, the Trent dried up. |
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Post by P London on Jan 30, 2018 14:09:06 GMT -5
I thinking ''B don't be ridiculous'' but thinking about it very mild days in London can happen and Melbourne does get a few coolish summer days.. LOL
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Post by alex992 on Jan 30, 2018 16:02:03 GMT -5
I wonder if the weather stations in Braemar, Altnaharra etc are in the absolute perfect places to pick up the coldest temperatures under inversion conditions? Not saying it will happen this year, but I bet -27C in one place could easily be -30C a mile away if the topography is right. There could be all kinds of subtle micro-microclimates in the area that aren't getting recorded. Very much possible. Maybe even as low as -32, -33 C could be recorded in the right conditions. Braemar is quite hilly I assume? Temperatures vary much more during cold nights than during hot days. Also UHI plays a much bigger role during cold nights than during hot days. |
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