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Post by nei on Jun 17, 2018 16:24:37 GMT -5
Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Bud (Eastern Pacific) moved in early Friday morning, and moved out last night. Dry sunny air is back, no monsoon in sight Did that air mass feel really strange to locals? Or not uncommon in the monsoon season there? |
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Post by nei on Jun 17, 2018 16:26:08 GMT -5
still feels very summery, but not overwhelming hot; wouldn't be able to guess really hot weather is coming. Humidity not coming to Massachusetts until Monday morning Warm front will be approaching as ridge continues to build aloft
toward 590dm. However, it may slow given diurnal trend and very
weak S support aloft. Therefore, dwpts in the low-mid 50s during
the afternoon and evening should allow temps to dip into the
upper 50s and low 60s. This is milder than previous nights, but
not as warm/humid as it would be if the front were to push
through sooner. The front should shift north rapidly with
sunrise induced mixing. This will allow the dwpts to rapidly
increase into the low-mid 60s at the sfc.why is the Connecticut River valley and southeast New Hampshire often a Northeast hot spot in heat waves, especially late spring & early summer. alex992 has commented on that pattern, you may have said already that it was air descending on the hills; I was skeptical since the hills aren't that tall. The primary issue will be the risk for high heat indices.
Dewpoints will continue to rise through the day, likely topping
out in the upper 60s and low 70s by early evening, when sfc
mixing begins to diminish. H85 temps warm somewhat, but
subsidence inversion yields H92 temps near +26C to +28C which
based on SPC sounding climatology may exceed record H92 temps at
both CHH and ALY. Even if mixing is not as deep, this will yield
widespread highs in the 90s, possibly upper 90s especially in
the CT and Merrimack valleys where a downslope component to the
W-E flow can be maximized. |
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Post by Steelernation on Jun 17, 2018 17:22:37 GMT -5
High so far today is 90 (32 C). Kinda disappointing given that it was already 88 at noon and the forecast high was 91. Hopefully tomorrow’s better...
Well listen to this...EVERY FUCKING SITE has DOWNGRADED tomorrow’s temps. Instead of predicting highs of 94-96, the forecasts are now for 90-92. WHAT THE FUCK??? If you think it’s gonna be 91, forecast fucking 91 the whole week, don’t tease me with forecasts of 95 and then downgrade it the day before.
Here I was thinking we would see our first 95 f in June in 16 fucking years, seeing forecasts saying 94 or 95 for almost a whole fucking week and then with the massive downgrade and today’s forecast bust we’ll be lucky to get fucking 91 or 92 out of this lame wave. FUCK ME DEAD!!!
Thank god I’ll be in southeast Colorado on Thursday where it’s supposed to be in the mid 90s and then a week in Moab where it’ll be 95-100 every day! Rochester’s lame ass summers where heat waves get downgraded and we bust on the warm days anyway can fuck off. Only 1 more summer of this crap after this thankfully!
Rochester heatwave: Let’s say the hottest day is on a Friday.
Monday: Friday’s high: 88
Tuesday: Friday’s high: 90
Wednesday: Friday’s high: 92
Thursday: Friday’s high: 93
Friday: Forecast high of 93
11 AM: 86
12 PM: 89
1 PM: hmmm....let’s stay at 89
2 PM: 90
3 PM: time for some lame ass lake cooling...89
4 PM: 88
5 PM: let’s tease some people and warm back up...89
6 PM: 89
High: 90
That sums up pretty much every heatwave since 2013, not counting the epic summer 2016.
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Post by nei on Jun 17, 2018 17:32:24 GMT -5
spot the ridge from the cloud cover  answer |
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Post by firebird1988 on Jun 17, 2018 19:21:47 GMT -5
Today's High was 37.8°C (Normal High 40.6°C)
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Post by nei on Jun 17, 2018 21:41:32 GMT -5
Texas looks cooler than further north and east
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Post by firebird1988 on Jun 18, 2018 5:05:11 GMT -5
Currently 26.1°C as of 3am Pacific (Normal Low 26.7°C)
Forecast High is 37.8°C (Normal High 40.6°C)
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Post by nei on Jun 18, 2018 6:47:21 GMT -5
Currently 26.1°C as of 3am Pacific (Normal Low 26.7°C) Forecast High is 37.8°C (Normal High 40.6°C) Gah. If you were 1°C colder we'd have a good chance of beating you. We should get higher heat indexes. 18°C and cloudy right now; clouds might be from the warm front? Odd; was a warm day yesterday and completely clear yesterday evening.  Anomalous airmass was moving into southern New England early this
morning. 850T should rise to between +18C and +20C along with plenty
of sunshine into mid afternoon. This coupled with excellent mixing
on gusty southwest winds should allow high temps to exceed guidance
numbers in many locations. Highs should reach into the middle to
upper 90s to the northwest of the I-95 corridor. Dewpoints rising
well into the 60s should result in afternoon heat index values
around 100 degrees and heat advisories are posted for this region.good chance of thunderstorms There is uncertainty in regards to the convective potential in
southern New England today....but there is the risk for isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms mainly across interior MA/CT. Most of
the high resolution guidance develops isolated to scattered
convection after 2 or 3 pm across interior southern New England in
association with a pre-frontal trough. We may see another round of
scattered convection...perhaps with a bit more areal coverage after
7 or 8 pm in association with the surface cold front.
The biggest limiting factors are [b]weak mid level lapse rates[/b] which
will limit updraft strength/potential and also uncertainty in
regards to the amount of forcing. However...given the anomalous
airmass in place there will be modest instability along with 0 to 6
km shear of 30 to 40 knots. This may be enough for isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms mainly across interior MA/CT with the main
threat being localized strong-damaging wind gusts. While the
tornado threat is low it can not be completely ruled out either,
because there is decent low level helicity. Pwats 3+ standard
deviations above normal will result in the potential for any
thunderstorm to produce torrential rain and a very localized street
flooding threat.bolded probably harms thunderstorms here most of the season |
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Post by firebird1988 on Jun 18, 2018 7:13:46 GMT -5
High so far today is 90 (32 C). Kinda disappointing given that it was already 88 at noon and the forecast high was 91. Hopefully tomorrow’s better... Well listen to this...EVERY FUCKING SITE has DOWNGRADED tomorrow’s temps. Instead of predicting highs of 94-96, the forecasts are now for 90-92. WHAT THE FUCK??? If you think it’s gonna be 91, forecast fucking 91 the whole week, don’t tease me with forecasts of 95 and then downgrade it the day before. Here I was thinking we would see our first 95 f in June in 16 fucking years, seeing forecasts saying 94 or 95 for almost a whole fucking week and then with the massive downgrade and today’s forecast bust we’ll be lucky to get fucking 91 or 92 out of this lame wave. FUCK ME DEAD!!! Thank god I’ll be in southeast Colorado on Thursday where it’s supposed to be in the mid 90s and then a week in Moab where it’ll be 95-100 every day! Rochester’s lame ass summers where heat waves get downgraded and we bust on the warm days anyway can fuck off. Only 1 more summer of this crap after this thankfully! Rochester heatwave: Let’s say the hottest day is on a Friday. Monday: Friday’s high: 88 Tuesday: Friday’s high: 90 Wednesday: Friday’s high: 92 Thursday: Friday’s high: 93 Friday: Forecast high of 93 11 AM: 86 12 PM: 89 1 PM: hmmm....let’s stay at 89 2 PM: 90 3 PM: time for some gay ass lake cooling...89 4 PM: 88 5 PM: let’s tease some people and warm back up...89 6 PM: 89 High: 90 That sums up pretty much every heatwave since 2013, not counting the epic summer 2016. I still remember two of my last 3 summers in Rochester where it never even hit 90°F once (98 maxed at 89°F and 2000 maxed at 88°F); I was just as disappointed as you. Though 99 was a good summer (at least June and July, I remember August being cooler) |
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Post by alex992 on Jun 18, 2018 8:58:42 GMT -5
 Pretty expansive area with heat advisories, heat is shorter lived out east than in the Midwest, heat wave has been going on for several days in Iowa/Missouri/Illinois/Southern Minnesota. St. Louis predicted at 98/80 for today with heat indices as high as 110 F, so quite oppressive, though pretty standard heat wave numbers for St. Louis. |
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Post by nei on Jun 18, 2018 9:05:48 GMT -5
Pretty expansive area with heat advisories, heat is shorter lived out east than in the Midwest, heat wave has been going on for several days in Iowa/Missouri/Illinois/Southern Minnesota. St. Louis predicted at 98/80 for today with heat indices as high as 110 F, so quite oppressive, though pretty standard heat wave numbers for St. Louis. Strange nyc isn’t under a heat wave advisory but most of upstate. Suburbs north and west may get the hotttest temperatures but it’ll be close. You can see the ocean takes a bite out of the heat for southern Brooklyn and Queens: will be one of those days where JFK and LGA read a big temperature difference |
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Post by alex992 on Jun 18, 2018 9:49:15 GMT -5
Any chance you'll reach 100 F (38 C) today? I saw you had a predicted high of 97 F (36 C), maybe you can overshoot that a bit.
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Post by nei on Jun 18, 2018 11:15:57 GMT -5
Any chance you'll reach 100 F (38 C) today? I saw you had a predicted high of 97 F (36 C), maybe you can overshoot that a bit. Definitely not; nws did have 97 but clouds will stop it clouds not going away. Keeping the temperatures down. NWS Boston added an update at 10:30 am; wonder what that'll do to the storm potential? Sounds like the NWS is increasing it 1030 Am Update...
Overall trend in the weather remains on track for today and
tonight. Continue to keep an eye on the storm potential latest
12z guidance is just now coming in so will review and make any
changes if needed. Biggest thing was to increase pops as the
CAMs continue to show precip moving into to the region tonight.
Aside from the storms continue to monitor the heat adv. A lot of
cloud debris across the region which could actually hinder the
high temps for today. Have dropped temps down a few degrees
resulting in low to mid 90s away from the coastline. However,
still expecting high dewpoint air which will still put heat
indices in the upper 90s. Will continue to keep the adv going
for now as there is not enough confidence to lower it at this
time.
See the clouds by us; right on the edge. Also, neat to see the fog clouds lining the pacific show up  |
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Post by Steelernation on Jun 18, 2018 13:47:52 GMT -5
Well fuck.
Temperatures soared up early this morning, it got up to 90 by 10 AM, kept climbing with the sun out, got up to 93 (34 C) and THEN IT GOT FUCKING OVERCAST AND DROPPED THE TEMPS.
At 2 PM we should be nearing the hottest part of the day, if it’s 93 at noon I guarantee we’d have gotten 95 if the sun stayed out but no, it has to be fucking cloudy and it has to get cooler in the middle of the afternoon. FUCK ROCHESTER!!!!!
No clouds in fucking Dansville, still 95 (35 C) and climbing there.
Anyway, this heatwave wasn’t bad. Our high was 93 (34 C), combined with a 75 (24 C) dew point the heat index reached 105 (41 C)!!!
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Post by Giorbanguly on Jun 18, 2018 14:24:15 GMT -5
Binghamton reached 90F for only the third time since 2013. Didn't happen at all in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, so this is quite rate. Nice to see
The town itself likely reached 93-94. Cloudy so can't see that rising now
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Post by rozenn on Jun 18, 2018 16:08:32 GMT -5
24.8/16.1°C and mostly cloudy today. This is actually warmer than an average July day, which shows how lame summers are here. This day last year Parisians had 4 consecutive 90°F+ days in a row awaiting them, coupled with tropical nights.  Speaking of tropical nights, it's been 5 days since Nice last dropped belwo 20°C. Gosh I miss those warm nights.  |
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Post by firebird1988 on Jun 18, 2018 19:52:33 GMT -5
Today's High was 38.3°C (Normal High 40.6°C)
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Post by nei on Jun 18, 2018 20:42:07 GMT -5
video of a funnel in western Massachusetts today
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Post by nei on Jun 18, 2018 20:44:24 GMT -5
Got a tornado warning at 5:30; haven't seen that before. Hasn't even been spotted, just "severe thunderstorm capable of making a thunderstorm". Haven't seen this forecast image before  * At 534 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Conway, or 10 miles north of Northampton, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Whately around 540 PM EDT. Hadley, Sunderland and Hatfield around 545 PM EDT. Amherst and Leverett around 550 PM EDT. Shutesbury and Pelham around 555 PM EDT. That storm didn't give me a tornado but another nearby one gave communities to the southeast a tornado. |
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Post by nei on Jun 18, 2018 21:11:26 GMT -5
clouds stopped New England from getting the hottest temperature  current temperatures at 9 pm  looks like central Vermont didn't get an evening thunderstorm, around 80°F past sunset. Dews are in the low 70s everywhere. Short-lived heat-wave |
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