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Post by greysrigging on Mar 12, 2021 5:00:26 GMT -5
We started off with a bang and seem to be going out with a whimper...
Airport 'Wet' to date..... 1542.4mm ( 1st Oct - 12th March )
Leanyer 'Wet' to date.....1729.2mm ( 1st Oct - 12th March )
Some Palmerston and Howard Springs areas have had 2500mm up to date !
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 13, 2021 4:43:41 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 14, 2021 0:49:13 GMT -5
32mm around noon from today's storms....this is much better !
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 15, 2021 16:51:03 GMT -5
Hmmmm, with a bit of luck, looks intersting this morning...   |
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 24, 2021 0:22:49 GMT -5
At this stage of the season, the 'Wet' for the Airport and Northern Suburbs gets slightly better than an ordinary pass mark. Airport 1/10/20 to date 24/3/21 - 1681.0mm Airport mean 1/10 to end of March - 1578. 6mm. Leanyer 1/10/20 to date 24/3/21 - 1794.8mm Leanyer mean 1/10 to end of March - 1643.9mm. And April ? Well consider this....since records began 1942. Monthly total +300mm = 4 times Monthly total +200mm = 8 times Monthly total +100mm = 33 times Monthly total -100mm = 46 times April mean 101.7mm April median 76.3mm In my experience April is much more likely to be below average than above average.... but hell yeah, would love to see another April 2006 ! ( almost 400mm ! )  |
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 24, 2021 5:17:55 GMT -5
Might be kick to the end of the season. From a post on our local Weather FB Page  TOP END & FAR NORTH TO AWAKEN FROM BRIEF SLUMBER Well folks, it's looking increasingly likely the wet season could go out with a bit of a bang for the far North, particularly the Top End & Kimberley but potentially extending to wider areas across the North. We have a developing MJO forecast to move into our Region in the coming fortnight from the West and at the same time a nice SE surge up into the Arafura Sea. The result will be a surface trough developing in the Arafura mid next week followed by a likely low pressure system as the westerly surge arrives. The steering of this system is variable and too early to tell due to competing influences. The odds at this stage favour a more South or South West track but we also can't rule out one to the SE either. If the MJO surges, we could then potentially see the initiation of more lows further eastward. The take away from this is don't write the wet season off yet and certainly do not play down the small possibility of a TC in the region. April has a pretty good track record for TC's in the Arafura Sea. The attached screenshot is from one of Nitso's Subscriber updates yesterday featuring the ECMWF EPS modelling. As you can see we have quite decent odds for low pressure developing in the region. We stress this is still 10 days out and a lot can still change but it paints an interesting picture, it also reinforces confidence in the next MJO wave being reasonably active. Definitely not the time to roll out the Dry Season furniture just yet... ( source: Oz Cyclone Chasers ) |
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 24, 2021 15:52:25 GMT -5
A warm night with a bit of lightning flickering out to the south and east.....might get a morning shower or two...   |
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 27, 2021 4:23:13 GMT -5
Incoming..... 16.5mm last night, 5.5mm this arvo from round one, round two approaching, just starting to rain....  |
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 27, 2021 5:26:48 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 27, 2021 22:26:37 GMT -5
Monsoon To Return ( source: Weatherzone ) The likely last monsoon trough for the season should move over far northern Australia late this week, bringing widespread rain and storms and an increased chance of tropical cyclones. It's hardly been dry over many tropical areas in recent weeks, most notably the Kimberley and northeast Queensland around Cairns, but this stormy rain has been caused by weather patterns other than the monsoon. For the Kimberley, it was a long-lasting low pressure trough that extended all the way to NSW at times; parts of the Kimberley saw totals between mid-March and last weekend to rival those of eastern NSW over the same period. For Queensland, it has been persistent onshore winds, driving moisture up and over the Tablelands, that forms cloud that then drops rain. While storms and rain can and do develop during monsoon 'break periods', an 'active period', like expected this week, is characterised by deep northwesterly winds over a wide area that drag moisture southwards from the equator. This moisture is then deposited as widespread rain.  The proximity of the monsoon trough's circulating winds and enhanced instability also hugely increases the chance of tropical cyclone development. A monsoon trough is expected to be near the northern Australian coast from Friday or Saturday this week and the most likely area to be affected by this particular monsoon period is the Top End of the Northern Territory. Indications of a tropical Cyclone near the Top End over the Easter weekend are increasing. Some areas of the Top End are likely to pick up three figure rainfall totals to cap off a wet season that already ranks in the wettest 10% of all recorded seasons. |
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 30, 2021 16:43:12 GMT -5
The last coupla afternoons....   |
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Post by greysrigging on Mar 31, 2021 16:45:04 GMT -5
Clear sunny day yeaterday, windy, humidity dropped below 50% for the first time in months, than a classic 'knock-em-down' storm blew through in the early hours dropping 10.2mm. Perfect start to April with 10% of the monthly rainfall on the 1st of April ! Sunrise this morning  |
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 5, 2021 23:36:05 GMT -5
Our very own Thunderstorm, 'Hector the Convector'
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 5, 2021 23:53:56 GMT -5
Definite signs of the change of seasons across the Top End. The local flora and fauna are the early indicators, increased dragon fly and butterfly activity in the gardens, seasonal grasses going to seed and a reduction in humidity and DPs generally. Despite the above, I have recorded 36mm rain since the begining of April, thanks to the Top End being on the extreme edge of a tropical disturbance near the island of Timor, which has caused widespread death and destruction on our near neighbour, with upwards of 600mm of rain falling over 2 days. The system has moved westwards into the Indian Ocean as a named TC Seroja.  From the BOM latest warnings Bureau of Meteorology 🌀 Tropical Cyclone 'Seroja' is currently analysed as a category 2 system and formed over West Timor, Indonesia, in the early hours of Monday morning. The cyclone brought torrential rain, floods and landslides to Indonesia and Timor Leste, tragically causing over a hundred deaths. Cyclone Seroja (named by Jakarta's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre) is expected to remain over open waters well north of WA, strengthening into a category 3 system by Wednesday afternoon while moving southwest parallel to the WA coastline. Computer model guidance becomes more uncertain later in the week with some scenarios having the cyclone approach the Pilbara and Gascoyne Coast, this may see an increase in rain and winds. A second tropical low south of Java is also being monitored, which may have impacts on Christmas Island. This system has a moderate chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone at this stage. A third tropical low is forecast to develop south of Sumatra and has a low chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone at this stage. |
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 6, 2021 0:28:04 GMT -5
Could the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Seroja affect Perth? ( from Weatherzone ) Tropical Cyclone Seroja is going to stay away from the Australian mainland during the next few days. But what happens towards the end of this week is harder to predict thanks to the prospect of the Fujiwhara effect. Seroja became a tropical cyclone near Kupang in Indonesia on Monday morning. Since then the system has drifted south and gained strength. At 8am AWST on Tuesday, Seroja was a category two tropical cyclone located between Australia and Indonesia, about 770 km to the north northwest of Broome.  Forecast models agree that Cyclone Seroja will gradually gain strength as it moves towards the west southwest between Tuesday and Thursday. This path will be roughly parallel to Western Australia's northern coastline, which will help keep Seroja's severe weather well away from the Australian mainland during that time. However, the movement of Tropical Cyclone Seroja beyond Thursday is going to be complicated by another tropical low pressure system. This tropical low was located about 670 km to the south of Christmas Island at 8am AWST on Tuesday. It should remain slow-moving in this region on Tuesday and Wednesday, before possibly interacting with approaching Tropical Cyclone Seroja from Thursday or Friday. When two cyclonic circulations come into close proximity, they begin a 'dance' that causes both vortices to rotate around a common central point. This interaction is called the Fujiwhara effect, named after Japanses meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwhara who documented it in the 1920's.  Unfortunately, the Fujiwhara effect makes it extremely difficult to predict a tropical cyclone's future movement. It can change both the path and strength of each cyclone and, under the right conditions, the stronger cyclone can absorb the weaker one. For Tropical Cyclone Seroja and the other tropical low, there are a broad range of possible future scenarios beyond Thursday. Some models suggest that the amalgamated system, comprising both cyclones, will move south and cause an increase in wind, rain and thunderstorms over northwestern districts of Western Australia from Friday into the weekend. There are even indications that a remnant low pressure system will drift further south from Sunday or early next week, possibly causing severe weather along the state's west coast. This could include Perth and other areas of the Central/Lower West Coast. It's too early to know if and how the Fujiwhara effect will influence these tropical systems. But anyone living in western or northwestern districts of Western Australia should keep a close eye on the latest track maps and warnings over the coming week. If another tropical cyclone develops inside Australia’s area of responsibility, it will be named Odette. |
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 8, 2021 4:08:27 GMT -5
11mm at my son's place in Pamerston, three fifths of five eights of fuck all in the Northern Suburbs of Darwin !  |
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 8, 2021 17:21:22 GMT -5
11mm at my son's place in Pamerston, three fifths of five eights of fuck all in the Northern Suburbs of Darwin ! Well, I've misled ya's all, a short sharp 'knock-'em-down' swept through in the early hours and delivered 18.4mm rain. Shoulda known, after all I ran the garden sprinklers all day yesterday, a sure indication of imminent rain ! So I've had about 50mm in the first 9 days of April, happy with that !  |
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 9, 2021 4:55:29 GMT -5
Balmy tropical evening, the sun has just set.  |
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 9, 2021 5:03:22 GMT -5
Some more activity tonight if we're lucky. A Gulf Line 'knock-'em-down' screaming in from the East....April rain is a bonus !  |
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Post by greysrigging on Apr 10, 2021 4:16:23 GMT -5
17.5mm overnight and nice shower just after lunch, another 5mm..... but one has the feeling this might be it, 75mm since the 1st of April is a pass mark, the first 10 days of March, I'd only recorded 4.1mm. Darwin mean April rain is about 100mm, naturally this falls in the first half of the month, the second half is often hot and dry with all the 'dry season' signs manifesting themselves. Sometimes we get late rains in May, always a bonus when it happens.   |
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