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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2021 19:18:26 GMT -5
We broke a daily record today! We reached 16.5C at 4:00pm while the previous record was 15.6C set in 1910. It's possible we went even higher between hourly readings, we'll find out tomorrow. Today has an average high of 0.0C and average low of -10.1C. We may also end up breaking our dry streak tonight. We've had zero precipitation this month but have quite a large and stormy looking cloud mass moving toward us. I doubt we'll get our first thunderstorm of the year but we may very well get our first proper rain. Lucky bastard. It has officially been warmer this year in Saskatoon, Canada than in Appleton, Wisconsin. Only by a fraction of a degree, but still. NWS practically nailed the forecast for today - their forecast was 22/50 (-6/10); actual at my place was 23/50 (-5/10). Imagine that - a meteorologist being right for once! |
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Post by jetshnl on Mar 19, 2021 23:14:17 GMT -5
We broke a daily record today! We reached 16.5C at 4:00pm while the previous record was 15.6C set in 1910. It's possible we went even higher between hourly readings, we'll find out tomorrow. Today has an average high of 0.0C and average low of -10.1C. We may also end up breaking our dry streak tonight. We've had zero precipitation this month but have quite a large and stormy looking cloud mass moving toward us. I doubt we'll get our first thunderstorm of the year but we may very well get our first proper rain. Some 100 yr old records broken there in SK. This meteorologist posted a map of temps: |
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Post by nei on Mar 20, 2021 5:54:03 GMT -5
Northern lights visible from New Hampshire last night! AJ1013 |
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Post by chesternz on Mar 20, 2021 6:21:29 GMT -5
27+ C lows for a week straight now but highs still aren't getting much over the 35 C mark:  |
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Post by Ethereal on Mar 20, 2021 6:23:36 GMT -5
There was a "mini-tornado" here in the western suburbs of Sydney.
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Post by nei on Mar 20, 2021 6:56:37 GMT -5
in Minnesota
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Post by Benfxmth on Mar 20, 2021 7:21:33 GMT -5
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Post by aabc123 on Mar 20, 2021 9:15:26 GMT -5
 The weather got cold again, temperatures below average.Square near the Lutheran church.Not all the piles of snow have melted yet. |
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Post by Morningrise on Mar 20, 2021 11:43:57 GMT -5
Looks like we missed out on the rain yesterday, still no precipitation this month. We do have a chance of flurries in the forecast for Monday, though, so we'll see if that happens. Also we're officially 1.9C warmer than Montreal this month so far, that's pretty impressive. We broke a daily record today! We reached 16.5C at 4:00pm while the previous record was 15.6C set in 1910. It's possible we went even higher between hourly readings, we'll find out tomorrow. Today has an average high of 0.0C and average low of -10.1C. We may also end up breaking our dry streak tonight. We've had zero precipitation this month but have quite a large and stormy looking cloud mass moving toward us. I doubt we'll get our first thunderstorm of the year but we may very well get our first proper rain. Lucky bastard. It has officially been warmer this year in Saskatoon, Canada than in Appleton, Wisconsin. Only by a fraction of a degree, but still. NWS practically nailed the forecast for today - their forecast was 22/50 (-6/10); actual at my place was 23/50 (-5/10). Imagine that - a meteorologist being right for once! That's pretty impressive considering how cold February was out here! It's been a damn nice March though, mostly above average temperatures and numerous daily records broken across the province as jetshnl posted. A local restaurant just posted that this the earliest they've opened up their patio in 33 years. Ahh, if only every March could be like this one... |
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Mar 20, 2021 17:45:30 GMT -5
Wow, that is something you'd expect to see at high latitude. Even then...that is a pretty insane display. Dafuq... |
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Post by Benfxmth on Mar 20, 2021 20:41:18 GMT -5
Forecast highs tomorrow according to NWS. Almost no contrast temperature-wise from northern FL to upstate NY.
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Post by nei on Mar 20, 2021 20:58:10 GMT -5
this warm spell is reaching northern New England better than last. And this time it's not much warmer further south as Benfxmth map shows. 2 60°F + highs forecast. Oddly some patchy snow, crusty icy stale snow but still would have thought it'd melted out by now |
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Post by FrozenI69 on Mar 21, 2021 8:15:06 GMT -5
Today's temp is 65/38 F. More typical of late April than 1st day of spring, when it averages 50/31 F.
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Post by ral31 on Mar 21, 2021 9:06:16 GMT -5
Severe weather event this past week seemed to have underachieved. I was under a Moderate severe risk on Wednesday, but the storm system passed with no severe warnings in my area - just had some heavy rain with lightning (the airport only got 0.24" of rain). A number of tornadoes over MS/AL but nothing EF3+ and zero fatalities.
Past couple of days have been cool with highs in 50's Friday and yesterday.
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Post by ilmc90 on Mar 21, 2021 9:15:05 GMT -5
April came a little early this year with low 60s in the forecast all week.
Impressive diurnal range today...low was 23 F/-5 C, forecast high of 62 F/17 C. March has been very sunny and pretty tranquil...old man winter didn't hang on much like it often does in March.
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Post by Benfxmth on Mar 21, 2021 11:42:38 GMT -5
Heavy rain is on the cards for MS, AL, and eastern LA ral31. |
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Post by ral31 on Mar 21, 2021 12:35:06 GMT -5
Heavy rain is on the cards for MS, AL, and eastern LA ral31 . Also could be another round of severe weather later this week. Still some uncertainty on the timing, location, and strength so SPC hasn't highlighted any areas yet. |
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Post by Benfxmth on Mar 21, 2021 12:51:02 GMT -5
Heavy rain is on the cards for MS, AL, and eastern LA ral31 . Also could be another round of severe weather later this week. Still some uncertainty on the timing, location, and strength so SPC hasn't highlighted any areas yet. Some forecast offices are mentioning about the possibility of severe weather Thursday & Friday though. Birmingham, AL:
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211729
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.UPDATE...
Midday Update and 18Z Aviation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021/
A broad trough remains just to our east, from Virginia south over
the Eastern Florida Panhandle while longwave ridging was analyzed
from Northeast Mexico extending northeast over much of the Lower
and Middle Mississippi River Valley region. A longwave positive-
tilted trough was analyzed from Saskatchewan Province in Canada
southwest across the Intermountain West into Southern California.
Toward the surface, a low was analyzed off the Northeast Florida
coast while high pressure over the Northeast continued to extend
southwest along the spine of the Appalachians. A cold front
extended from South-Central Canada south across the High and
Central Plains to a low in Southeast Colorado.
Today.
Easterly flow in the lower to mid levels continues to advect
moisture into the area and this is resulting in thicker cloud
cover across the east and southeast. Drier air to the west is
resulting in clouds decreasing in coverage as the move further
west across the forecast area. A few showers were noted on radar
across the southeast and will carry around 20% PoP for areas
around and southeast of Interstate 85 through late afternoon.
Activity should diminish this evening as clouds decrease in
coverage due to vertical mixing that will bring some drier air
aloft into the lower levels. Highs will range from the low 60s
east to the upper 60s west. Winds will remain out of the northeast
6-12 mph with occasional breezy conditions with speeds up to 20
mph.
Tonight.
Fair skies are expected across much of the area this evening,
followed by more clouds moving into the east/southeast counties
overnight. Dry conditions are forecast with lows in the 40s across
the forecast area with cooler readings north and northeast. Winds
will be light from the northeast to east overnight.
Monday.
Morning clouds will be thicker to the east then thinning as we
progress into the afternoon hours. Dry conditions are expected
with warmer temperatures as highs will range from the upper 60s
far north and east to the lower 70s elsewhere. Easterly winds will
become southeasterly late in the day with speeds from 6-12 mph.
05
.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0327 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021/
Monday night through Saturday.
Height falls will overspread the region Monday night and Tuesday
as an upper-level trough moves from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest. Moisture return will be sufficient for showers to reach
our western counties Tuesday morning. Slow eastward progression of
this activity is expected across the remainder of the area through
Tuesday night as upper-level flow becomes more parallel to the
approaching cold front. Broad southwesterly flow and enhanced rain
chances will persist into Wednesday ahead of the next storm
system. The potential for heavy rainfall does not appear quite as
impressive with recent model runs through Wednesday.
The next shortwave will round the base of a large-scale trough on
Thursday, with general agreement that a warm sector will spread
inland across a good portion of Alabama. There is certainly an
indication of convection developing as an effective warm front
moves northward on Thursday morning, which may complicate the
potential for severe storms. Models are not in the best agreement
with the amplitude of the 500 mb trough or how much emphasis to
place with the main shortwave versus the lead impulse/convection
early Thursday. These unresolved details will no doubt affect the
magnitude and placement of the severe weather threat. Regardless,
deepening low pressure to our northwest west along with an
intensifying low-level jet and boundary layer destabilization,
strongly suggest at least some risk for severe storms and
tornadoes Thursday afternoon and evening. Flooding could also
become a threat that needs to be added to the HWO. Any lingering
rain should be focused across our southeastern or southern
counties on Friday and Saturday near the weakening cold front.
87/Grantham
&&
Jackson, MS:
000
FXUS64 KJAN 211725 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through Monday afternoon. /22/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
After a rather cold start in the 30s for most locations,
temperatures have recovered under full insolation and were into
the 50s already. Under high pressure surface and aloft today,
temperatures are expected to continue warming through this
afternoon. No changes to the forecast were needed. /22/
Prior discussion below:
Today through tonight: After a very chilly start to the day,
especially over north central/eastern MS where there is possibly
some frost, sunny skies are expected to help temperatures rebound
quickly with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s over most
of the forecast area. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain dry
weather with seasonable temperatures and light wind over the
ArkLaMiss region as we finish up the weekend and start the new
work week. /EC/
Monday: Dry conditions will continue into the beginning of the new
work week as the surface ridge axis extends to the Gulf Coast.
Daytime temperatures will return to slightly above average.
Monday night through Thursday: A return to more active weather is on
the way heading into the middle of the week as the subtropical upper
jet amplifies along the US/Mexico border and an upper trough builds
over the Intermountain West. A lead shortwave transiting this trough
will spur on a surface cyclone that will track from the Southern
Plains into the Midwest, dragging a cold front accompanied by
numerous showers into our area for Tuesday. Sufficient elevated
instability will exist for isolated storms to develop ahead of this
front. While ample deep layer bulk shear and modest low level SRH
are expected to be in place, the lack of instability should preclude
an organized severe weather threat. However, it isn`t out of the
realm of possibility, especially if we end up with more instability
than anticipated, a severe storm or two could occur. Confidence in
this possibility is too low to warrant mention in the HWO/graphics
at this point.
With the upper trough remaining to our west, the initial front will
stall out through Tuesday and Tuesday night roughly along the
Mississippi River. Ensemble guidance suggests anomalous water vapor
transport will exist over portions of southwest MS and central LA,
so locally heavy rainfall is possible on Tuesday, especially with
the front stalling.
As another mid-level wave begins to round the upper trough, the
surface front will retreat northward on Wednesday. However, strong
upper divergence is forecast to develop over the northern Gulf Coast
which appears likely to anchor convection near the coast through
much of the day Wednesday, possibly getting close to our Pine Belt
area. With anomalously high PW and IVT, flooding could become a
concern, though it is unclear if this will occur far enough
northward to significantly impact any of our area. The parameter
space is otherwise forecast to feature steep mid level lapse rates
across much of the area with weak to moderate instability and
sufficient deep layer shear. While this would typically be favorable
for stronger storms, it appears at this point that convection along
the coast may deter development across most of the forecast area
through the daytime Wednesday.
Heading into Thursday, as a new surface cyclone associated with the
second shortwave tracks from Texas toward the Great Lakes (note: the
model consensus is notably farther west than this same shift 24
hours ago), convection will spread northward back across much of the
area ahead of another cold front. Storms will become more likely
beginning Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday when greater
instability is anticipated. With continuing strong deep shear and
increasing low level shear, severe storms still appear to be a
possibility. As previously noted, there are some run-to-run
inconsistencies that remain, and there are also some additional
differences between solutions with respect to timing of the front
(impacting how much instability might develop ahead of it, timing of
stronger low level shear). Thus, we will continue to hold off on
mentioning this in the HWO/graphics, but will continue to mark it as
something that had a good chance of being added once we better
wrangle the details. It`s also worth mentioning, PW will remain
unseasonably high (90th+ percentile), and with multiple periods of
convection expected, flooding is another potential hazard we will be
monitoring closely.
Friday and Saturday: Surface ridging will briefly build back in with
drier conditions returning Thursday night into Friday. However, as
the upper flow becomes more zonal, the front which passed through
the area on Thursday will stall near the Gulf Coast. Next weekend,
increasing upper divergence associated with the nearby subtropical
jet will create the potential for a return of convection over the
southern half of the area. /DL/
Raleigh, NC:
000
FXUS62 KRAH 211401
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1000 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the New England coast will extend
southwest across the Mid Atlantic region through mid week, while a
low pressure centered drifts slowly northward along the Southeast
coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Sunday...
Forecast is in good shape. High pressure continues to nose southward
through central NC, while the expansive tight MSLP gradient between
the ridge and strengthening low pressure of JAX is producing long-
fetch ENE flow into NC. Expect continued partly to mostly cloudy
skies today, with the greatest cloud cover over the far S and E
where low level moist upglide is evident. Low clouds have pushed
largely W of the forecast area, to over the foothills and E mountain
slopes, and as the low level flow is expected to back slightly as
the surface low drifts northward just off the Southeast coast, these
clouds should hold to our W for the rest of the day. Precip chances
still look very minimal, given the fairly dry air in the lowest 8000
ft, but based on the deeper saturation not too far away (hinted at
by the wet CHS sounding), have included isolated sprinkles across
the far S. Highs mainly around 60 to the lower 60s. -GIH
Earlier discussion from 300 AM: The upper-level trough lingering
aloft will begin to push eastward by tonight. A 1035 mb high
currently over Upstate NY will build southeast today and anchor off
the Northeast coast by this afternoon. Meanwhile, low pressure will
remain off the Southeast coast, with a stationary front aligning
along the coast of the Carolinas. Cooler and stable air will
continue at the surface from the ridge to our north, however
isentropic upglide will continue the possibility of a light shower
or drizzle near the NC/SC border. Northeasterly winds remained
slightly elevated overnight and will become gusty again by late
morning, especially across the southern Coastal Plain and the
Sandhills where gusts to 25 mph are possible.
Increasing thicknesses will help highs rise into the low 60s today,
which is just a few degrees below seasonal normals. Cloud cover
lingering along the Coastal Plain will keep lows higher tonight,
with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s NW to the upper 40s SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...
Upper-level ridging will build across the region from the east
Monday through Monday night. Surface high pressure will remain
anchored off the Northeast Coast Monday, and the surface low off the
Southeast Coast will begin to push northeast away from the region.
Although guidance is suggesting highs in the mid to upper 60s, low-
level cloud cover may limit highs from only reaching the low to mid
60s. Breezy northeasterly winds will continue again in the late
morning and afternoon for the Coastal Plain and Sandhills, with
gusts near 20 mph possible.
Lighter winds are expected Monday night, with mostly cloudy skies.
Lows are currently forecast to dip into the low to mid 40s, however
temperatures may need to be increased to the mid to upper 40s if
cloud cover increases more than currently expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM Sunday...
Upper ridge axis will push east of the area by late Tuesday morning
allowing for upper/mid level moisture to come from the
south/southwest. At the surface, narrow ridge of high pressure will
still be feeding in from the northeast, keeping Central NC mostly
dry on Tuesday. As the coastal low moves up the mid-Atlantic coast,
rain chances increase slightly on Wednesday as a strong surface low
in the Southern Plains region will continue to move northeast.
Beginning Thursday evening into Friday morning there is a chance of
thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall ahead of the strong cold
front moving into the region. Still too far out to determine severe
potential, but will keep and eye on the system in the coming days.
On Saturday, as the front moves off the coast high pressure to our
northeast builds in with clearing skies and light winds out of the
southwest. Temperatures for Tuesday will be in the 60s before
quickly warming up to above normal and in the 70s on Saturday.
&&
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Post by ilmc90 on Mar 21, 2021 14:11:05 GMT -5
Not too much winter weather at the moment. Winter Storm Warnings in Colorado and Winter Weather Advisories in the PNW. Anywhere from a few inches to a foot in the higher elevations of both areas.  |
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Post by Benfxmth on Mar 21, 2021 16:39:31 GMT -5
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