Top End Wet Season 2021-2022

Will it or wont it ? Darwin sometimes misses out on storms coming from this direction.

22.3c at 3.30pm....I'll have to start complaining about the cold soon....

This afternoon's EC (and everyone who uses Windy) sure looks nice!
Things seem to be trending eastwards instead of a WA system to line up the Top End.



GFS is trending west and EC is trending east all to eventually settled over Darwin. I kinda hope that's what happens... Would be an absolutely ripping monsoon burst for us here on the east side if a low/TC moves southwards over Darwin. I'm keen on a direct hit or Kimberly crossing then tracking across the south Top End...that will benefit all.
EC and GFS Models

A 7 day forecast to gladden the hearts of all Top Enders.....Monsoon imminent, heavy rain and cooler overcast conditions.

Another early afternoon storm noisy and wet right in top of me.

Building up nicely earlier in the day.

Angry dark sly !

Truly the stuff of legend. I'd literally drink a slab every day there.

I'm really liking the look of ACCESS-G....if this comes off its gunna be wild, wet and windy the next few days. A classic Monsoonal onset !

Xmas Day Darwin...a little treatise I put together for our local FB weather page.

"OK Pilko - ites, to help take away the guess work, voodooism, witchdoctory, medicine manism, shamanism, tea leaf readers, magic mushroom ingestors AND some BOM employees who lurk around these pages...not to mention the modern model muppets who blindly follow the 'Big Brother' eye-in-the-sky hocus pocus ( you know, the same bastards who think the world is round, and man actually landed on the Moon )
Well here it is, Xmas Day Data ! Darwin Airport since 1941
Rainfall
80 Xmas days since 1941
Highest/Lowest/Mean rainfall totals by the decade.
1941-1950 = 41.7mm, 0mm, 9.5mm, 2 rainless Xmas days.
1951-1960 = 45.2mm, 0mm, 13.1mm, 5 rainless Xmas days
1961-1970 = 26.9mm, 0mm, 6.2mm, 5 rainless Xmas days
1971-1980 = 277mm, 0mm, 30.0mm, 3 rainless Xmas days
1981-1990 = 19.2mm, 0mm, 2.6mm, 7 rainless Xmas days
1991-2000 = 83.6mm, 0mm, 28.0mm, 3 rainless Xmas days
2001-2010 = 23.6mm, 0mm, 8.5mm, 2 rainless Xmas days
2011-2020 = 70.8mm, 0mm, 13.8mm, 3 rainless Xmas days
To summarise
30 rainless Xmas days since 1941
Only 9 Xmas days have exceeded 25.4mm ( the old 1" )
Only 5 Xmas days have exceeded 50mm.
Record set in 1974 ( Tracy ) 277mm.
Over the 80 years, the mean is 14mm.
So will it rain tomorrow ? Probably...
What totals we looking at ? Buggered if I know, ask a witch doctor haha. I do stats, not predictions.
As usual, the timing of the monsoon onset certainly impacts on rain fall and max temps
Xmas Days highest/lowest/means/+35c/-30c
1941-1950 = 34.2c, 28.2c, 31.3c, 0 above 35c, 2 below 30c
1951-1960 = 34.1c, 29.7c, 32.4c, 0 above 35c, 1 below 30c
1961 1970 = 34.9c, 31.7c, 33.3c, 0 above 35c, 0 below 30c
1971-1980 = 34.2c, 29.0c, 32.2c, 0 above 35c, 2 below 30c
1981-1990 = 34.4c, 30.7c, 32.7c, 0 above 35c, 0 below 30c
1991-2000 = 34.9c, 29.8c, 32.3c, 0 above 35c, 1 below 30c
2001-2010 = 33.6c, 30.7c, 32.1c, 0 above 35c, 0 below 30c
2011-2020 = 35.5c, 27.6c, 32.0c, 2 above 35c, 3 below 30c
To summarise
Hottest Xmas Day 2018 = 35.5c
Coolest Xmas Day 2017 = 27.6c
2 Xmas Days above 35c since 1941 ( 2018 and 2019 )
9 Xmas Days below 30c since 1941 including 2013, 2015 and 2017
Mean Xmas Day temp over 80 years = 32.2c
Merry Xmas ! get those Crownies into ya" !

Our coolest Xmas Day on record ( since 1941 ), 26.3c during a lull in the rain. Mostly between 25c and 26c all day with frequent rain bands. A sensational Xmas Day !
( notes, temp has risen to 27.1c at 8.30pm, previous lowest Xmas Day temp 27.6c in 2017 )

And our coolest max temp since a 25.0c and 25.7c recorded on consecutive days in May 2020.
The whole region cool, cloudy and wet. The Monsoon is in !