NH Winter/SH Summer 2021-2022 Discussion Thread

"The dreaded southeast ridge" the SE ridge pattern is literally one of the best weather patterns to be in here. Pumps mild, wet southerlies in during the winter. Be careful of this polar foamer propaganda.

Widespread Rain Looms As Cyclone Risk Increases
( source: Weatherzone )

There are signs that rain and thunderstorms will increase over northern Australia during the next week, raising the likelihood of tropical cyclone development in the region.


A monsoon trough is expected to move over northern Australia during the next few days, causing rain and storm activity to increase in some northern parts of QLD, the NT and WA.


This increase in convective activity could cause a low-pressure system to develop within the trough, most likely over the Timor Sea later this week.


Some models suggest that this low could move south towards the Kimberley coast on the weekend and early next week, where it has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

If this low lingers over the ocean for long enough, there is a chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone off the Kimberley coast early next week. However, if it moves too close to or over land too quickly, it is unlikely to develop into a cyclone.

At this stage, there is only a low risk of cyclone development and if it does happen, it would most likely be between Monday and Wednesday somewhere near the west Kimberley coast.


Regardless of whether we see a tropical cyclone, the southward-moving monsoon trough will still cause an increase in rain and thunderstorms over northern Australia in the coming week.

This new injection of tropical moisture will also spread further south next week and combine with another moisture-laden air mass left behind by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tiffany.

As a result of these two sodden tropical air masses, a large area of central, eastern and southeastern Australia is likely to see substantial rain during the next 7 to 10 days.


Accumulated rainfall totals over the next ten days are forecast to be around 30-60mm across a broad area including the NT, northern WA, QLD, SA, NSW, ACT, VIC and TAS. Some areas may see isolated falls of 100-250mm over the next ten days and some places could pick up more than 300mm.

This widespread rain has the potential to cause flooding in several states and territories. It will also be falling in areas of the country that are usually fairly dry in summer, with some inland areas of SA in line to receive more than two times their average summer rainfall in the space of one week.

Flood advisories, severe weather warnings and tropical cyclone warnings will be issued, when necessary, over the next 10 days.

New day, new storm

Well after a week of splendid mildness, yesterday ended up being another cold one - high of -25.6C, low of -36.2C. This morning started off cold as well, currently -25.2C, but it's supposed to warm up to -3C today. Unfortunately there's also a risk of freezing rain this afternoon, which I really hope doesn't happen. We've had way too much icy crap on the roads this winter.

Forecasts show us staying relatively reasonable until the end of the month, so that's nice. Looks like the first couple days of February might be on the colder side but obviously it's way too early to say for sure. Hopefully February ends up being decent and that the past few weeks were the worst of the cold snaps that we're gonna have this winter.

This is the reason for all the (unusual) winter sunshine in the UK recently: a blocking high that looks to continue rebuilding yet again through next week with 1040mb+. Got to say I'm not complaining.

And meanwhile a closed upper low explains why the eastern Mediterranean will be cold through next week...

Cold front came thru this morning. High of 47F was recorded @ 3AM, then in the front 0.25" of precipitation, including a 0.3" dusting of snow, fell. Temps have been in the mid 30s for most of the day though, so the snow is all but gone and it's very muddy. Tons of standing water, tomorrow will be a skating rink as lows tonight are forecast to fall into the teens

-5C with freezing rain coming down at the moment, tomorrow's commute is gonna be sketchy 

We're supposed to get 2 to 4 cm of snow overnight so hopefully that covers up the ice enough to give a decent amount of traction - that's happened a few times this winter already. (edit: just checked and we're supposed to go up to 0C by morning, so it'll be probably be a wet slushy mess, but hopefully not too slippery) It's amazing how much icy bullshit we've had the past two months, far more than any other winter I can remember.

We're also supposed to keep getting snow between tomorrow night and Sunday night, so adding even more to the already generous pile that we have. Thankfully I live in an apartment and don't have to deal with shovelling, but my co-worker's snowblower is broken so he's gonna have a fun weekend LOL

Between all of that and our recent long lasting extreme cold snap, this is turning out to be one hell of a winter, by far the harshest since I moved back here - we've had individual months that were worse in recent years, but not a whole winter. I think this will be quite a memorable one looking back, but overall I'll be grateful for the milder weather when it returns.

Muh unprecedented heat, muh 1910, muh standardisation n shiiiiiiet nigguh

Oh shut the fuck up