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Post by ilmc90 on Jul 10, 2022 8:26:01 GMT -5
Another pleasant morning here. Low beat the forecast of 56 F/13 C and dropped down to 52 F/11 C. Currently 67 F/19 C at 9:00AM and heading up to a high of 81 F/27 C.
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Post by Steelernation on Jul 10, 2022 13:44:26 GMT -5
Got down to 49 (9 c) in Rochester this morning, the coldest July temp since 2015.
The dew also got as low as 35 (2 c) yesterday.
Meanwhile back home, it got to 99 (37 c) yesterday and now it’s back to snoozefest conditions.
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 11, 2022 2:35:42 GMT -5
Negative IOD Pattern Gaining Strength.  The Indian Ocean Dipole index has just reached its most negative value since 2016, increasing the likelihood of wet weather over southeastern Australia in the coming months. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an index that measures the difference in sea surface temperatures on either side of the tropical Indian Ocean. This index is negative when water is abnormally cool on the western side of the Indian Ocean and unusually warm on the eastern side.  Negative phases of the IOD are akin to La Niña in the Pacific Ocean because they enhance the flow of moisture-laden air towards Australia and promote rainfall. Australia’s last negative IOD occurred from July to December in 2021, a period that included Australia’s wettest November on record. Prior to this, the most recent fully-fledged negative IOD was in 2016, which resulted in Australia’s wettest September on record and South Australia’s 4th wettest year on record. So, what is the IOD going to do this year? A negative IOD is usually declared when the IOD index remains below -0.4 for at least eight consecutive weeks. The Indian Ocean has been transitioning into a negative IOD pattern over the last couple of months, with cooler-than-average waster pooling near the Horn of Africa and unusually warm water sitting to the northwest of Australia. This distinctive pattern can be seen on the map below.  The oceanic temperature pattern above has seen the IOD index sitting in a negative state since mid-May and remaining near or below the negative IOD threshold of -0.4 during the past eight weeks. The latest weekly value for the week ending on July 10 was -1.14, which is the lowest IOD value observed since 2016. The graph below shows the state of the IOD index during the last four and a half years.  Most forecast models suggest that the IOD will remain in a negative state during the rest of the Southern Hemisphere’s winter and into spring, most likely gaining more strength in the coming weeks. With eight weeks of the IOD index sitting near or below the threshold of -0.4, and more negative values on the horizon, it is only a matter of time before the Bureau of Meteorology declares a negative IOD officially underway. It may even happen later this week. Negative IOD events typically cause above average rainfall over large areas of Australia, particularly in the south and southeast. They also promote cooler-than-average days across Australia’s southeast mainland.   Images: Average observed rainfall (top) and maximum temperature (bottom) deciles during winter and spring for 11 negative IOD years that occurred between 1960 and 2016. |
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Post by dunnowhattoputhere on Jul 11, 2022 9:41:21 GMT -5
Met Office have released an amber extreme heat warning for Sunday, covering most of England. The warning matrix is just one short of a red warning. GFS shows 36/37C here on Monday. There must be very high confidence to release such a warning at this stage.  |
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Post by Met.Data on Jul 11, 2022 11:41:01 GMT -5
Some useful info for anyone who's been using this weather station in Yorkshire:  |
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Post by dunnowhattoputhere on Jul 11, 2022 12:04:40 GMT -5
Some useful info for anyone who's been using this weather station in Yorkshire: I thought it looked a bit dodgy these past few days - it showed 32C yesterday! |
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Post by Strewthless on Jul 11, 2022 12:33:16 GMT -5
Met Office have released an amber extreme heat warning for Sunday, covering most of England. The warning matrix is just one short of a red warning. GFS shows 36/37C here on Monday. There must be very high confidence to release such a warning at this stage. I was watching the forecast earlier, the forecaster confidently stated that records are going to be broken. London seems highly likely to finally surpass 40C. |
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Post by Met.Data on Jul 11, 2022 12:46:24 GMT -5
It would be so annoying if somewhere reached 39.9°C next weekend and yet so typically British.
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Post by Steelernation on Jul 11, 2022 13:20:56 GMT -5
July has gotten off to a very dry start here in Rochester. The average high is near average but the average low of 58.7 (14.8 c) is the coolest for the first 10 days of July since 2015.
Many days have had dews in the 40s, well below average, and only 0.20” (5 mm) has fallen. Also just 2 lows over 60.
Dry pattern looks to continue with only isolated storms some days and lows no warmer than the mid 60s even as heat builds next week.
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Post by dunnowhattoputhere on Jul 11, 2022 17:45:18 GMT -5
Met Office have released an amber extreme heat warning for Sunday, covering most of England. The warning matrix is just one short of a red warning. GFS shows 36/37C here on Monday. There must be very high confidence to release such a warning at this stage. I was watching the forecast earlier, the forecaster confidently stated that records are going to be broken. London seems highly likely to finally surpass 40C. Never seen a chart like this - 38C in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, 36C in Cheshire and Manchester (and probably north Wales too). Mad stuff.  |
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Post by desiccatedi85 on Jul 11, 2022 17:47:05 GMT -5
It’s been a warm and dry pattern here too, with less than an inch of rain in the past 30 days  Still, seeing London/Paris get this type of heat and drought pisses me off every time that it happens. It seems like global warming is hitting Europe harder than the eastern US, sadly, though obviously summers (and even more so winters) have warmed here. |
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Post by Strewthless on Jul 11, 2022 17:49:43 GMT -5
That map is saying 36C for me, current record is 35C, will be interesting.
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Post by flamingGalah on Jul 11, 2022 18:15:17 GMT -5
Some useful info for anyone who's been using this weather station in Yorkshire: Saw someone from the Met Office on Twitter earlier confirm that the Leconfield station has military equipment currently positioned next to it, also Kew Gardens has been ignored for the last week as music concerts have been held there & they stupidly decided to erect the stage right in front of the weather station compound. The last concert was on Sunday so hopefully it's all moved within the next day or so. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2022 18:55:10 GMT -5
GFS showing 38C for York on Monday and Tuesday. Insane really!
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Post by ilmc90 on Jul 11, 2022 19:42:38 GMT -5
High/low today was 86 F/57 F (30 C/14 C). Still a warm 80 F/27 C at 8PM.
Chance of thunderstorms tomorrow but drought is knocking on the door. All week has highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s.
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 12, 2022 4:48:17 GMT -5
UK Met Office Issues Extreme Heat Warning As Dangerous Heatwave Looms. ( source: Weatherzone )  Record-challenging heat will spread across western Europe from the end of this week, prompting the UK Met Office to issue an early warning for adverse health effects from extreme heat. While hot and sunny weather is common in Europe during July, a pool of exceptionally hot air may challenge records in some countries later this week and early next week. Heat will build over the Iberian Peninsula during the next few days under the influence of an upper-level ridge. According to the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere, the IPMA, temperatures are forecast to reach 46 to 47ºC in some central parts of Portugal on Wednesday and Thursday. This is not far off the country’s maximum temperature record of 47.3ºC from Amareleja on August 1, 2003. Spain’s State Meteorological Agency, AEMET, anticipates that temperatures could rise to 43 or 44ºC in some parts of the country on Wednesday and Thursday. This is a few degrees below its national temperature record.  After scorching the Iberian Peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday, this pool of hot air will spread further north as southerly winds pick up ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Temperatures are likely to hit the high-thirties in parts of southern and western France during the middle of this week, before possibly exceeding 40ºC in some parts of the country from the weekend. According to a special bulletin released by France’s national meteorological agency, Météo-France, “From Saturday, temperatures begin to rise in the north of the country, and the whole territory could experience scorching temperatures from Sunday. The temporal evolution, the extent, the intensity and the duration of this episode will be refined progressively in the next bulletins.” The United Kingdom will also endure a surge of exceptionally warm air by their standards later this week and early next week.  The UK Met Office has already issued an Extreme Heat Alert for Sunday, July 17 and this warning is likely to soon be extended into Monday. It is very unusual for the Met Office to issue Extreme Heat Warnings six days out, which speaks to the severity and potential dangers involved with this event. There is a chance that both maximum and minimum temperatures could be challenged in the UK from Sunday into Monday. High pressure is settling over the UK next weekend, however low pressure in the Atlantic could bring even warmer winds from the south, raising temperatures further. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for Sunday - Alex explains what that could mean for you below 👇 pic.twitter.com/47k7z8C0rD — Met Office (@metoffice) July 11, 2022 Weatherzone will continue to bring you updates as this potentially historic heatwave unfolds in western Europe. |
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Post by cawfeefan on Jul 12, 2022 8:03:51 GMT -5
Had quite the drizzlefest today - drizzled most of the day amounting to a grand total of ... 3.2mm lmao
Max was 9.7C
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Post by jgtheone on Jul 12, 2022 8:10:54 GMT -5
Had quite the drizzlefest today - drizzled most of the day amounting to a grand total of ... 3.2mm lmao Max was 9.7C Same total here, although I had 1mm of drizzle over like 8 hours and then the rest was delivered in a heavy shower around 7pm |
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Post by psychedamike24 on Jul 12, 2022 10:18:58 GMT -5
I see the ultra-oppressive dew points have reached the lowlands of eastern China. 28 C dewpoints were estalished in the Indo-Gangetic Plain around a month ago (and are still present in lowland Indus-facing Balochistan). Windy app screenshot is from yesterday  |
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Post by rpvan on Jul 12, 2022 17:41:17 GMT -5
Alaska fires update:
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