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Post by greysrigging on Jul 1, 2023 0:44:31 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 1, 2023 1:44:20 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 1, 2023 3:59:29 GMT -5
Last 5 days in Alice Springs and Tennant Creek   The cloud and rain is abput 300klm-400klm south west of Darwin  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 2, 2023 4:47:32 GMT -5
Our first below average max temp since late May... a very pleasant and overcast day... no rain of course.... it is the dry season after all !  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 3, 2023 21:54:09 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 5, 2023 2:11:57 GMT -5
A reasonable assessment of where El Nino is at as pertains to the NT ( and AU ) ( source: Nikko; PCOW FB Page, Darwn ) Latest climate driver update, El Nino still struggling to take hold but remains at El Nino alert, full report below including IOD and SAM report: The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño Alert. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are exceeding El Niño thresholds. Models indicate a high likelihood of further warming, with SSTs exceeding El Niño thresholds until at least the beginning of the southern hemisphere summer. In terms of atmospheric indicators, recent values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have risen back to neutral levels, with the 30-day SOI at +1.1 for the 30 days ending 2 July. The 90-day SOI remains close to, but just shy of, El Niño levels. Sustained changes in wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns towards El Niño-like patterns have not yet been observed. This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Niño events. El Niño typically suppresses winter–spring rainfall in eastern Australia. The current status of the ENSO Outlook does not change the long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across much of Australia for August to October. The Bureau's climate model takes into account all influences from the oceans and atmosphere when generating its long-range forecasts. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop in the coming months. A positive IOD typically supresses winter and spring rainfall over much of Australia, and if it coincides with El Niño, it can exacerbate El Niño's drying effect. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak or indiscernible, and is expected to remain weak in the coming fortnight. The MJO has little influence on Australian rainfall at this time of year. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently negative and is expected to remain negative for a week before returning to neutral values for at least the next two weeks. A negative SAM typically increases rainfall across parts of south-west and south-east Australia, while a neutral SAM has little influence on Australian climate.  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 6, 2023 15:42:24 GMT -5
depths of winter....at 5.30am.   |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 7, 2023 1:38:21 GMT -5
Topped out at 33.8c... forecast was 34c so it's a pass mark for the BoM 3.1c above the long term average max temp for July.  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 8, 2023 3:58:00 GMT -5
Max of 33.1c today... that's 2.4c above the long term average for July  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 10, 2023 15:04:12 GMT -5
The well above average trend of this season's dry season continues....   |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 11, 2023 4:17:01 GMT -5
It's a well above July so far in 2023  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 11, 2023 23:13:55 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 14, 2023 16:38:33 GMT -5
Last 5 days in Darwin  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 15, 2023 16:23:07 GMT -5
Unusual radar images for mid July !   |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 15, 2023 16:31:30 GMT -5
Still well above average max and min temps for the next 7 days....  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 16, 2023 19:33:47 GMT -5
Another magnificent Top End dry season day.... depths of winter !  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 20, 2023 2:05:02 GMT -5
Chilly this morning... 17.3c. But warmed up nicely this arvo to 31.9c The dry season has returned with lower dp's and gusty south easterly winds.  Getting cold early next week...  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 21, 2023 17:51:55 GMT -5
Still well above average for July....  But winter is nigh as in early next week....  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 22, 2023 20:58:06 GMT -5
For those wondering where the 'dry season' has been ? Well, its back !! DP's in the 20c's at midnight and sub 5c at 11.00am . So when we all talk about the classic south easterly surge ? well this is it !!  |
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Post by greysrigging on Jul 23, 2023 16:57:33 GMT -5
Coldest morning of the year 16c ! brrr!! Coldest since 16th Aug last year ( 15.3c )  |
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