NH Summer/SH Winter 2023 Discussion Thread

June is already a cold below-average subarctic heap of tripe, let's see the anomolies for the first week...

Average high: -4.1°F (8th coldest on record)
Mean: -4.2°F (5th coldest on record)
Average low: -4.4°F (8th coldest on record)

Some highlights about this fuckan , whether you like them or not.

- Coldest first week since 1976

- First sub-50°F low since 1977

- An entire day of subarctic overcast with idiotically cold highs in the 60s/70s on the 4th

- And of course, the streak without ANY >=90°F highs continues, the potential to break the record of the latest first one of June 24th, 1966 is real.

To summarize: go and fuck off to the deepest bowels of hell you fucken waste of a first week of June

5th all-time coldest first week of June in Turku. Luckily it will be over soon. Mean is a pathetic 10.1C.

For this reason I have a hard time feeling any kind of sympathy towards people living in subtropical climates and whining how it's 2C below average, and the mean is ONLY 23C.

Stop. You didn't understand the joke.

Had an hour of dry thunder yesterday, didn’t rain at all which is unusual. Think the storms were all up in the mountains so I was able to hear the thunder but they were too far away for rain. I liked the dry thunder though, as long as there’s good thunder I don’t care if it rains or not.

MET is that tweet real or a joke? Heat warnings for temps around 80ºF? Seriously?

U.S. Declares El Nino Is Here
( source: Weatherzone )

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has declared that El Niño is now present in the Pacific Ocean and warns that it will gain strength in the coming months.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued an El Niño Advisory on Thursday, June 8, indicating for the first time in 2023 that “El Niño conditions are present” in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
This week’s El Niño declaration follows a rapid breakdown of the La Niña conditions that were lingering in the tropical Pacific at the beginning of 2023. Impressively, the transition from La Nina to El Nino only took three months, with the CPC’s final La Niña Advisory issued on March 9 and this week’s El Niño Advisory dropping on June 8.


How long and strong will this El Niño be?

According to the latest forecast issued by the CPC, El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the rest of 2023 and possibly into the start of 2024. This period encompasses winter, spring and at least part of summer for Australia.

There are also signs that El Niño will gain strength in the coming months. The model used by the CPC predicts that there is an 84 percent chance El Niño will exceed moderate strength later this year, and a 56 percent chance that it will mature into a strong El Niño.
Stronger El Niño events are more likely to influence global weather patterns than weaker events.

Conflicting information
Earlier this week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued an El Niño Alert, indicating a 70 percent chance of El Niño forming in 2023. Two days later, the U.S. CPC declared that El Niño had arrived.

This conflicting information simply comes down to the CPC and The Bureau using different thresholds for classifying El Niño. The CPC’s thresholds are lower and easier to meet, meaning they typically declare the start of El Niño and La Niña before the Bureau of Meteorology.

Regardless of whether El Niño has officially arrived or not, the Pacific Ocean is clearly in an El Niño-like state and the latest monthly and seasonal climate outlooks reflect this.
El Niño typically causes below average rainfall and above average daytime temperatures over large areas of Australia. The maps below show that these conditions are being predicted during the next three months in Australia.

True, I guess 83°F in London is somewhat anomalous, but still probably occurs fairly often in midsummer. The more striking aspect of this temp chart to me is the temps near 80°F up in Scotland, that seems far more rare.