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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 20:10:22 GMT -5
My take on it is that the water offshore of Florida gets warmer and warmer, hence gets more and more powerful to pursue the Gulf Stream direction, forcing the warm water away from NYC and New England, pointing it straight towards Europe. Wouldn't rule out a future where the normal winter means are warmer in Nyköping than in Boston's UHI. Hmm, "maybe" is all I can say. Hasn't the PNW had repeated really warm winters as well recently, what would be the cause behind that then? I have no idea if Vladivostok has seen the same warming in winter as Moscow has either. I find it hard to say that the last few years is indicative of a new weather pattern, not nearly long enough to be acting like it's a new "norm". Greenland Blocking seems to be happening quite a bit the past few years, displacing frigid, Arctic air into mid-latitudes in Eastern North America while displacing mild air into high latitudes - a reason Greenland and Svalbard has been so warm recently, particularly in early winter (lack of sea ice development in late fall has kept early winter warm). Also, the same Greenland Blocking forces a huge trough into the Eastern US, which in turn forces ridges to occur on both sides of the trough (which translates into Western NA and Western Europe). The PNW had a cold winter in 2010-2011, 2011-2012 and I believe last winter was colder than normal for them. 2011-2012 was a record breaking winter in Alaska as well, lots of places setting cold and snowfall records. I think a pattern flip is imminent. |
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Post by Giorbanguly on Jan 2, 2018 20:13:56 GMT -5
Our winters are becoming more prone to lasting cold shots it seems, but the June-December period is becoming way hotter. Seems like every recent September and October has been very warm, to the point of breaking records
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Post by Lommaren on Jan 2, 2018 20:14:15 GMT -5
Well alex992 out of the last few winters we've only really had two clear cut beneath -3°C months in Nyköping; December 2012 and January 2016. I think Feb 12 and Jan 13 just matched that in Örebro, but besides that we've had 20 winter months out of 22 since autumn 2011 here being below the permanent snowline. Considering the remarkable cold waves in North America at the time, it's rather remarkable. I also find it interesting that the 2010 cold waves were on either side of the Atlantic, so whenever we get a cold wave these days it seems to be replicated across the Atlantic, unless it's a brief one like January 2016... |
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Post by ilmc90 on Jan 2, 2018 20:14:17 GMT -5
Not often do you see Winter Storm Watches sneaking down into the extreme northern part of the FL Peninsula. 50% chance of snow tonight in Lake City, FL! It will be interesting to see how this storm plays out in Florida.   |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 20:17:30 GMT -5
Well alex992 out of the last few winters we've only really had two clear cut beneath -3°C months in Nyköping; December 2012 and January 2016. I think Feb 12 and Jan 13 just matched that in Örebro, but besides that we've had 20 winter months out of 22 since autumn 2011 here being below the permanent snowline. Considering the remarkable cold waves in North America at the time, it's rather remarkable. I also find it interesting that the 2010 cold waves were on either side of the Atlantic, so whenever we get a cold wave these days it seems to be replicated across the Atlantic, unless it's a brief one like January 2016... What I'm saying is, a few years is not long enough to say that new weather pattern is developing. I'm sure there's been periods before in history that a mild/warm weather pattern dominates for a few years. It's bound to regress back to average eventually. |
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Post by Lommaren on Jan 2, 2018 20:20:40 GMT -5
What I'm saying is, a few years is not long enough to say that new weather pattern is developing. I'm sure there's been periods before in history that a mild/warm weather pattern dominates for a few years. It's bound to regress back to average eventually. I'd love if we stole all the warmth from New York and New England in the long run, especially if that pattern could reproduce more than the 2015 and 2017 crummers, we need it, but yeah too early to say I guess  What I can say though is that each July since 2008 has averaged above 21°C here so those absolute crummageddons like 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2007 seem a distant memory. The really weird one is how February always seems exceptionally mild every year these days. January still has dipped quite a bit even in this decade, but February now seems like a brighter December. |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 20:21:05 GMT -5
Not often do you see Winter Storm Watches sneaking down into the extreme northern part of the FL Peninsula. 50% chance of snow tonight in Lake City, FL! It will be interesting to see how this storm plays out in Florida. This ice storm could be treacherous in that red slit from Lake City on northeast ward. NWS even predicting up to 0.6" of ice for Lake City, which is quite a lot and especially for a place that doesn't see frozen precipitation too often. I hope more snow falls than predicted! 4-6" is already very, very impressive for SE GA. |
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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 20:24:07 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see how this storm plays out in Florida. This ice storm could be treacherous in that red slit from Lake City on northeast ward. NWS even predicting up to 0.6" of ice for Lake City, which is quite a lot and especially for a place that doesn't see frozen precipitation too often. I hope more snow falls than predicted! 4-6" is already very, very impressive for SE GA. I hope so too. This storm bears alot of similarities to the epic storm of Dec 1989 despite not being as cold. |
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Post by ilmc90 on Jan 2, 2018 20:24:15 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see how this storm plays out in Florida. This ice storm could be treacherous in that red slit from Lake City on northeast ward. NWS even predicting up to 0.6" of ice for Lake City, which is quite a lot and especially for a place that doesn't see frozen precipitation too often. I hope more snow falls than predicted! 4-6" is already very, very impressive for SE GA. Can't word this question without sounding stupid, but how often does North Florida get ice storms? Obviously rare. This seems like a lot of ice for that area. |
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Post by Giorbanguly on Jan 2, 2018 20:25:57 GMT -5
Seattle had an anomalous 2014-2016 period and now its coming back to earth. While these three years were the warmest since 1900, 2017 was only the 17th warmest. Seattle got lucky for three years, it's nowhere near becoming the Bahamas just yet. Seattle had one of the colder years on record in 2011, really don't think its climate changed in just three years
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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 20:26:39 GMT -5
This ice storm could be treacherous in that red slit from Lake City on northeast ward. NWS even predicting up to 0.6" of ice for Lake City, which is quite a lot and especially for a place that doesn't see frozen precipitation too often. I hope more snow falls than predicted! 4-6" is already very, very impressive for SE GA. Can't word this question without sounding stupid, but how often does North Florida get ice storms? Obviously rare. This seems like a lot of ice for that area. Every couple of years there's *some* ice accumulation somewhere in Florida but for a specific location (say lake city) getting over half an inch of ice could be as rare as a once in a century event |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 20:27:48 GMT -5
This ice storm could be treacherous in that red slit from Lake City on northeast ward. NWS even predicting up to 0.6" of ice for Lake City, which is quite a lot and especially for a place that doesn't see frozen precipitation too often. I hope more snow falls than predicted! 4-6" is already very, very impressive for SE GA. I hope so too. This storm bears alot of similarities to the epic storm of Dec 1989 despite not being as cold. Haha, I was just about to say that too. Reminds me of Dec 1989, where several inches of snow fell in those same areas and even up to 20" in Wilmington, NC. Could very well end up being that way, this storm has an extremely similar track. |
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Post by ilmc90 on Jan 2, 2018 20:28:39 GMT -5
Can't word this question without sounding stupid, but how often does North Florida get ice storms? Obviously rare. This seems like a lot of ice for that area. Every couple of years there's *some* ice accumulation somewhere in Florida but for a specific location (say lake city) getting over half an inch of ice could be as rare as a once in a century event Yeah, that's why I asked. Half an inch of ice anywhere in Florida would be crazy. |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 20:31:33 GMT -5
This ice storm could be treacherous in that red slit from Lake City on northeast ward. NWS even predicting up to 0.6" of ice for Lake City, which is quite a lot and especially for a place that doesn't see frozen precipitation too often. I hope more snow falls than predicted! 4-6" is already very, very impressive for SE GA. Can't word this question without sounding stupid, but how often does North Florida get ice storms? Obviously rare. This seems like a lot of ice for that area. Not a stupid question at all.  Honestly, some ice or snow isn't totally unheard of in North FL/Panhandle, but it's more common the more west you go, I.E. more common in Pensacola than Tallahassee, more common in Tallahassee than either Lake City or Jax. A full blown ice storm of this magnitude in the Lake City area is very rare, probably something that happens every 40-50 years or something like that. It'd be less unusual into the Panhandle, there was ice and snow in the Panhandle and Tallahassee back in January 2014 but not to this magnitude at all. I believe in Tallahassee I probably got something like 0.1-0.15" of ice, higher accumulations to the west but not nearly 0.5-0.6" I don't believe, there was accumulating snow in Crestview, FL in that storm. |
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Post by ilmc90 on Jan 2, 2018 20:36:51 GMT -5
Can't word this question without sounding stupid, but how often does North Florida get ice storms? Obviously rare. This seems like a lot of ice for that area. Not a stupid question at all. Honestly, some ice or snow isn't totally unheard of in North FL/Panhandle, but it's more common the more west you go, I.E. more common in Pensacola than Tallahassee, more common in Tallahassee than either Lake City or Jax. A full blown ice storm of this magnitude in the Lake City area is very rare, probably something that happens every 40-50 years or something like that. It'd be less unusual into the Panhandle, there was ice and snow in the Panhandle and Tallahassee back in January 2014 but not to this magnitude at all. I believe in Tallahassee I probably got something like 0.1-0.15" of ice, higher accumulations to the west but not nearly 0.5-0.6" I don't believe, there was accumulating snow in Crestview, FL in that storm. Yeah I figured some flakes or sleet fly every couple of years in the panhandle. An ice storm of this magnitude just seems crazy. I remember reading about Florida snow events years ago and I think Jacksonville had a White Christmas in 1989, IIRC. Some parts of the panhandle have apparently received as much as 4 inches of snow a couple of times. |
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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 20:41:31 GMT -5
Not a stupid question at all. Honestly, some ice or snow isn't totally unheard of in North FL/Panhandle, but it's more common the more west you go, I.E. more common in Pensacola than Tallahassee, more common in Tallahassee than either Lake City or Jax. A full blown ice storm of this magnitude in the Lake City area is very rare, probably something that happens every 40-50 years or something like that. It'd be less unusual into the Panhandle, there was ice and snow in the Panhandle and Tallahassee back in January 2014 but not to this magnitude at all. I believe in Tallahassee I probably got something like 0.1-0.15" of ice, higher accumulations to the west but not nearly 0.5-0.6" I don't believe, there was accumulating snow in Crestview, FL in that storm. Yeah I figured some flakes or sleet fly every couple of years in the panhandle. An ice storm of this magnitude just seems crazy. I remember reading about Florida snow events years ago and I think Jacksonville had a White Christmas in 1989, IIRC. Some parts of the panhandle have apparently received as much as 4 inches of snow a couple of times. It's amazing what can happen in the SE US if conditions are right. The Georgia/Carolina coast is probably the only sea level 30*-32*place in the world that can manage blizzard conditions, regardless of how rare they are. |
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Post by ilmc90 on Jan 2, 2018 20:46:59 GMT -5
Yeah I figured some flakes or sleet fly every couple of years in the panhandle. An ice storm of this magnitude just seems crazy. I remember reading about Florida snow events years ago and I think Jacksonville had a White Christmas in 1989, IIRC. Some parts of the panhandle have apparently received as much as 4 inches of snow a couple of times. It's amazing what can happen in the SE US if conditions are right. The Georgia/Carolina coast is probably the only sea level 30*-32*place in the world that can manage blizzard conditions, regardless of how rare they are. Blizzard conditions? |
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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 20:50:34 GMT -5
It's amazing what can happen in the SE US if conditions are right. The Georgia/Carolina coast is probably the only sea level 30*-32*place in the world that can manage blizzard conditions, regardless of how rare they are. Blizzard conditions? I'm talking in general, not about this storm in specific. The 1989 storm had blizzard conditions from myrtle beach north I think. |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 20:51:36 GMT -5
February 1899 also saw blizzard conditions as far south as North FL, of course that was nearly 120 years ago  |
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Post by ilmc90 on Jan 2, 2018 20:52:21 GMT -5
I'm talking in general, not about this storm in specific. The 1989 storm had blizzard conditions from myrtle beach north I think. Apparently there were blizzard conditions in Florida in the late 1800s but I think that is unsubstantiated. Either way, this storm will be a sloppy wintry mess for Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. |
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