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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 20:54:48 GMT -5
February 1899 also saw blizzard conditions as far south as North FL, of course that was nearly 120 years ago  Do you think the type of setup needed to bring an inch of snow to Miami would be possible? If so what temps/conditions do you think areas further north would see? |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 21:03:09 GMT -5
February 1899 also saw blizzard conditions as far south as North FL, of course that was nearly 120 years ago Do you think the type of setup needed to bring an inch of snow to Miami would be possible? If so what temps/conditions do you think areas further north would see? I think theoretically, yes. If we can get snow flurries, a similar set-up to January 1977 just with a bit more moisture associated with the cold air blast (a situation that's extremely hard to happen) could drop accumulating snow in Miami. Perhaps a weak ULL could happen with an extreme cold air blast? Maybe a surface low originating in the southern GOMEX, moving slightly to our south and east while getting a January 1977-like trough coming through the area could drop an inch of snow in Miami. Temps further north would probably be about upper teens in Orlando, single digits in Tallahassee/Jacksonville with sub-zero occurring anywhere north of about 32-32.5 N in GA. |
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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 21:09:46 GMT -5
Do you think the type of setup needed to bring an inch of snow to Miami would be possible? If so what temps/conditions do you think areas further north would see? I think theoretically, yes. If we can get snow flurries, a similar set-up to January 1977 just with a bit more moisture associated with the cold air blast (a situation that's extremely hard to happen) could drop accumulating snow in Miami. Perhaps a weak ULL could happen with an extreme cold air blast? Maybe a surface low originating in the southern GOMEX, moving slightly to our south and east while getting a January 1977-like trough coming through the area could drop an inch of snow in Miami. Temps further north would probably be about upper teens in Orlando, single digits in Tallahassee/Jacksonville with sub-zero occurring anywhere north of about 32-32.5 N in GA. I think the only way it could happen would include a surface low passing to our south with record breaking cold behind it (in which case we would get cold rain followed by perhaps up to an inch of snow as the system moved to our northeast). Sadly I just can't see a setup like this being possible, what happened in 1977 might be as good as it gets and with a setup like that it's impossible to get anything more than flurries to a dusting. |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 21:16:10 GMT -5
To be honest, even getting snow flurries for 5 minutes would make me jizz my pants, so I can't even imagine a full-blown inch falling upon Miami lol.
I remember during January 2010 I could have sworn seeing snowflakes falling looking at street lamps at night. I believe it was January 9, 2010. I vaguely remember feeling some sort of icy precip falling on me, maybe some sleet? Either way, probably the closest we will come to snow in a long time.
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Post by Lommaren on Jan 2, 2018 21:17:57 GMT -5
To be honest, even getting snow flurries for 5 minutes would make me jizz my pants, so I can't even imagine a full-blown inch falling upon Miami lol. I remember during January 2010 I could have sworn seeing snowflakes falling looking at street lamps at night. I believe it was January 9, 2010. I vaguely remember feeling some sort of icy precip falling on me, maybe some sleet? Either way, probably the closest we will come to snow in a long time. Feels as likely to snow in Miami over the weekend as it does during our forecasted ice days early next week tho  Seems like destined to be cold real-feel but with little to no snow this winter. |
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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 21:19:23 GMT -5
To be honest, even getting snow flurries for 5 minutes would make me jizz my pants, so I can't even imagine a full-blown inch falling upon Miami lol. I remember during January 2010 I could have sworn seeing snowflakes falling looking at street lamps at night. I believe it was January 9, 2010. I vaguely remember feeling some sort of icy precip falling on me, maybe some sleet? Either way, probably the closest we will come to snow in a long time. You might have lol, there were scattered reports of frozen precip around Miami that night. And yeah, probably the closest Miami will get to snow for a long long time. Midday temps around 40 with rain was insane. |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 21:25:54 GMT -5
To be honest, even getting snow flurries for 5 minutes would make me jizz my pants, so I can't even imagine a full-blown inch falling upon Miami lol. I remember during January 2010 I could have sworn seeing snowflakes falling looking at street lamps at night. I believe it was January 9, 2010. I vaguely remember feeling some sort of icy precip falling on me, maybe some sleet? Either way, probably the closest we will come to snow in a long time. You might have lol, there were scattered reports of frozen precip around Miami that night. And yeah, probably the closest Miami will get to snow for a long long time. Midday temps around 40 with rain was insane. Having weather that reminded me of a chilly, rainy with borderline snow, winter day in North GA in South FL was quite surreal. Getting North GA type of weather in winter down here is already quite remarkable, let alone weather that'd be considered chilly up there lol. |
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Post by nei on Jan 2, 2018 21:27:19 GMT -5
I think theoretically, yes. If we can get snow flurries, a similar set-up to January 1977 just with a bit more moisture associated with the cold air blast (a situation that's extremely hard to happen) could drop accumulating snow in Miami. Perhaps a weak ULL could happen with an extreme cold air blast? Maybe a surface low originating in the southern GOMEX, moving slightly to our south and east while getting a January 1977-like trough coming through the area could drop an inch of snow in Miami. Temps further north would probably be about upper teens in Orlando, single digits in Tallahassee/Jacksonville with sub-zero occurring anywhere north of about 32-32.5 N in GA. I think the only way it could happen would include a surfave low passing to our south with record breaking cold behind it (in which case we wpuld get cold rain followed by perhaps up to an inch of snow as the system moved to our northeast). Sadly I just can't see a setup like this being possible, what happened in 1977 might be as good as it gets and with a setup like that it's impossible to get anything more than flurries to a dusting. This would be like a northeaster except off the coast of Florida, right? |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 21:29:36 GMT -5
I think the only way it could happen would include a surfave low passing to our south with record breaking cold behind it (in which case we wpuld get cold rain followed by perhaps up to an inch of snow as the system moved to our northeast). Sadly I just can't see a setup like this being possible, what happened in 1977 might be as good as it gets and with a setup like that it's impossible to get anything more than flurries to a dusting. This would be like a northeaster except off the coast of Florida, right? Yes, essentially. But getting a set-up like that would be ridiculously hard, perhaps has happened before records were kept? A combination of an amplified trough over FL with a surface low, that would be epic. |
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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 21:55:57 GMT -5
I think the only way it could happen would include a surfave low passing to our south with record breaking cold behind it (in which case we wpuld get cold rain followed by perhaps up to an inch of snow as the system moved to our northeast). Sadly I just can't see a setup like this being possible, what happened in 1977 might be as good as it gets and with a setup like that it's impossible to get anything more than flurries to a dusting. This would be like a northeaster except off the coast of Florida, right? Yeah, lol. Remember my post about that a couple of days ago? |
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Post by nei on Jan 2, 2018 22:20:54 GMT -5
This would be like a northeaster except off the coast of Florida, right? Yeah, lol. Remember my post about that a couple of days ago? yep, seems like a problem with that setup is the storm would filter warmer maritime air, creating rain. If it's in the right spot? Colder seas might help. |
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Post by nei on Jan 2, 2018 22:24:34 GMT -5
our streak is impressive by length but no day is as extreme as some of the ones in 1917-18. Crazy that we're even close to that cold spell
here's 1917-18 from the list of coldest weeks. Date is the last day of the weeklong period. Both 1917-18 and the 1961 week are really impressive.
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1918-01-04 6.7 -13.4 -3.4
1961-01-27 15.3 -21.6 -3.1
1934-02-09 13.3 -11.0 1.1
1994-01-22 17.4 -12.7 2.4
1961-02-03 18.6 -13.9 2.4
1968-01-14 19.1 -13.1 3.0
1918-02-06 18.3 -11.6 3.4
1971-01-21 22.9 -14.7 4.1
1979-02-16 13.6 -5.1 4.2
1914-02-17 15.7 -6.7 4.5
1981-01-15 22.3 -12.4 4.9
1957-01-20 19.6 -9.7 4.9
1935-01-31 16.6 -6.1 5.2
2015-02-21 20.6 -9.9 5.4
1912-01-14 15.3 -4.3 5.5
2005-01-25 18.1 -6.3 5.9
1920-01-20 16.1 -3.9 6.1
1984-01-22 22.4 -10.0 6.2
1899-02-15 14.7 -2.3 6.2
1970-01-25 21.6 -9.1 6.2
since I can these lists in a few seconds, here are some more. Top 10 two-week coldest periods:
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1961-02-03 16.9 -17.7 -0.4
1918-01-05 16.9 -4.1 6.4
1934-02-11 19.3 -4.7 7.3
1979-02-20 16.8 -1.2 7.8
1994-01-28 22.7 -6.9 7.9
2015-02-27 23.1 -6.9 8.1
1968-01-13 21.3 -4.9 8.2
1893-01-22 19.5 -2.9 8.3
1918-02-06 20.3 -3.4 8.5
1912-01-17 17.7 -0.2 8.8
now for top 10 one-month coldest periods
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1961-02-13 24.3 -7.3 8.5
1994-02-12 25.1 -2.8 11.1
2015-03-02 25.1 -2.4 11.3
1934-03-01 23.1 -0.4 11.4
1970-01-28 26.0 -3.0 11.5
1918-01-23 20.8 2.4 11.6
1948-02-11 23.6 0.6 12.1
1981-01-16 26.4 -0.1 13.1
1905-02-19 23.6 2.7 13.2
1971-02-04 28.0 -1.2 13.4
note 2015 goes up in rank the longer the period, no one part of the February 2015 was extremely cold, but it kept going. February 2015 is the record for coldest month, but if you look at month long periods, 1961 and 1994 had a colder month-long period, it just didn't begin and end neatly along one calendar month.
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 22:25:54 GMT -5
Yeah, lol. Remember my post about that a couple of days ago? yep, seems like a problem with that setup is the storm would filter warmer maritime air, creating rain. If it's in the right spot? Colder seas might help. It'd help more if the low pressure passed to our south and east, the counter clockwise rotation would pull in cold air from the north/north west. Would be ridiculously hard though I think to produce snow being surrounded by 65-70 F sea temps. |
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Post by nei on Jan 2, 2018 23:25:05 GMT -5
alright now Miami stats. Top 10 coldest weeks; again date is the last day of that week
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1977-01-23 59.4 39.0 49.2
2010-01-11 61.0 40.7 50.9
1962-12-16 63.7 39.6 51.6
1956-01-14 62.6 42.0 52.3
1989-12-29 64.3 40.3 52.3
1958-02-19 61.1 43.6 52.4
1960-01-25 63.7 43.1 53.4
1970-01-13 63.1 43.7 53.4
1985-01-27 66.1 41.9 54.0
1981-01-15 66.7 42.7 54.7
and month-long period (really 28 days)
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1958-02-22 66.7 47.4 57.0
1981-01-24 69.0 47.0 58.0
2010-12-29 70.2 50.5 60.3
1977-01-31 69.9 50.9 60.4
1968-03-05 70.4 50.9 60.7
1962-12-20 69.7 51.7 60.7
1985-01-31 71.9 49.5 60.7
2010-01-15 69.5 52.6 61.0
2001-01-26 71.1 51.3 61.2
1978-02-23 69.5 53.5 61.5
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Post by AJ1013 on Jan 2, 2018 23:27:41 GMT -5
alright now Miami stats. Top 10 coldest weeks; again date is the last day of that week
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1977-01-23 59.4 39.0 49.2
2010-01-11 61.0 40.7 50.9
1962-12-16 63.7 39.6 51.6
1956-01-14 62.6 42.0 52.3
1989-12-29 64.3 40.3 52.3
1958-02-19 61.1 43.6 52.4
1960-01-25 63.7 43.1 53.4
1970-01-13 63.1 43.7 53.4
1985-01-27 66.1 41.9 54.0
1981-01-15 66.7 42.7 54.7
and month-long period (really 28 days)
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1958-02-22 66.7 47.4 57.0
1981-01-24 69.0 47.0 58.0
2010-12-29 70.2 50.5 60.3
1977-01-31 69.9 50.9 60.4
1968-03-05 70.4 50.9 60.7
1962-12-20 69.7 51.7 60.7
1985-01-31 71.9 49.5 60.7
2010-01-15 69.5 52.6 61.0
2001-01-26 71.1 51.3 61.2
1978-02-23 69.5 53.5 61.5
What is the recording period for those stats? I'm pretty sure Jan 1940 should be in there... |
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Post by nei on Jan 2, 2018 23:29:22 GMT -5
What is the recording period for those stats? I'm pretty sure Jan 1940 should be in there... It's from Miami Airport, starts 1948. I could try to find an older station, it's from the NCDC. |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 2, 2018 23:29:57 GMT -5
59/39 for an entire week down here as an average is insane, lol. Came close in January 2010.
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Post by nei on Jan 2, 2018 23:31:33 GMT -5
last one of the night. St. Petersburg, Russia (also Petrograd or Leningrad depending on the year). This set goes back to 1881, kept going through the siege. Top 10 coldest weeks:
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1987-01-13 -17.4 -27.3 -22.4
1956-02-11 -8.0 -22.1 -15.1
1940-01-21 -7.3 -21.6 -14.4
1929-02-11 -6.4 -22.1 -14.3
1950-01-11 -10.1 -17.7 -13.9
1968-01-14 -5.4 -18.7 -12.1
1979-01-02 -4.7 -18.6 -11.6
1942-01-27 -3.3 -19.0 -11.1
1892-01-27 -3.6 -18.3 -10.9
1893-01-17 -5.4 -16.4 -10.9
top 10 coldest months
# DATE MAX MIN MEAN
1942-02-04 3.3 -9.4 -3.1
1893-01-18 2.9 -9.0 -3.0
1987-01-30 3.8 -6.8 -1.5
1908-01-11 6.2 -6.5 -0.1
1968-01-29 6.1 -6.0 0.1
1966-02-11 7.8 -7.2 0.3
1940-02-11 7.4 -5.6 0.9
1941-02-08 8.1 -5.5 1.3
1893-02-27 10.0 -7.4 1.3
1979-01-07 8.0 -4.9 1.6
I downloaded Helsinki but the dataset the NCDC has only goes back to 1952 so chose St. Petersburg. These numbers look brutally cold. More impressive considering the January average is 26.6/17.6. The 1942 month was 25°F below average; our coldest was around 15°F below average.
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Post by alex992 on Jan 3, 2018 7:44:00 GMT -5
 Holy crap, heavy snow in North FL and South GA! Look at those deep blues east of Tallahassee, this is fucking insane!!!! |
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Post by alex992 on Jan 3, 2018 7:50:05 GMT -5
Btw, I'm sure all of you can understand the concept, but deeper/darker blues = heavier precip. Those areas under dark blue are seeing very heavy snow. Insane!
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