Aussie Rules Thread

Also FUMING that Paul Seedsman wasnt put on the wing for AA. Rest of the squad has been pretty good and players have actually been put in their positions.

Legit a dream since i was a kid to get to a grand final. First time ive had a genuine chance as well! Fucking hope i can get a ticket

Yewwwwwwwwwwww

Didn't get tickets but still get to watch it at my mate's house which is the next best thing.

I'll do a more complex analysis of the game later but atm I can't see Western Bulldogs winning by a lot...on the other hand I can see Melbourne locking down the Dogs with excellent defensive work.

I'd say the game hinges on whether or not the Dogs defence turns up, if their defence can operate to a level similar to the Demons defence (which is well proven as one of the most effective and dominant defences in a long time) then this game will be awesome. If not..then I can see Melbourne winning by 15-35 points.

I think the two most likely results are:
1) Melbourne win by 15-35 (i'll say 25 for simplicity) - the game is close for the first half with many momentum changes...yet Melbourne are always scoring easier when they do score. Eventually Melbourne gain full momentum and break away in the 4th quarter.

2) Both teams turn up, neither team can take advantage. It's close as fuck, either team wins by less than 6 points.

Grand Final Prediction


Line Ups for game:



I have two predictions at the moment, unsure which one I'll pick.

1) The game is even in scoreline but Melbourne's defence locks down the Bulldogs attacks, although scores are fairly even up until 3QTR time the Dees have the advantage, move the ball better and are nulling the Bulldog's handball game. In the final quarter the Dees run over the top of the Dogs and win by ~20 points.

2) Both teams turn up, both teams play amazing football, the game comes down to less than a goal...maybe even a draw.

Norm Smith Prediction:

I think I'm going to go a smokey and say James Harmes, to completely shut down Liberatore (tagging him out of the game) and also provide a good bit of ball use. This is one of the grand finals where any player can win the Norm Smith.

Probably not going to be able to see Lance Franklin's 1000th goal or even get to Sydney due to the extension of border restrictions. BUT i'll still get to sydney and melbourne to watch some footy this year.

Ladder Prediction

1) Brisbane Lions
2) Western Bulldogs
3) Port Adelaide
4) Melbourne
5) Richmond
6) Fremantle
7) GWS
8) St Kilda
9) Geelong
10) Gold Coast
11) West Coast
12) Essendon
13) Carlton
14) Sydney
15) North Melbourne
16) Adelaide
17) Hawthorn
18) Collingwood

Premiers: Brisbane
Norm Smith: Hugh Mcluggage
Coleman: Lance Franklin
Brownlow: Zac Bailey


Adelaide: gradual improvement, will still be shaky in defence with the loss of Talia (such a weird delisting) and Jake Kelly leaving; will require a lot of standing up from Dodee and Butts to become pillars in defence for 2022.

Expecting a finish in the 14th-18th range, will say 16th.

Brisbane: after a squeeze into the top 4 but a dramatic exit from finals, Brisbane will be looking revenge and a reward for their consistency since 2019 of finishing in the top 4 every year. A great list and culture build since 2016/2017 which has been reaping rewards in the home-and-away season but have been dramatically upset (or simply beaten by better teams) during the previous three finals campaigns. Expect to see Zac Bailey become a god-tier midfield forward, an exceptionally even forwardline with Cameron, Danhier, McStay and Hipwood (also Rayner coming back) really preforming well. Honestly my big prediction is for brisbane in 2022 to be one of the all-time great teams, maybe a 20-2 record or 19-3. Their defence is excellent, then midfield (albiet lacking in depth) is very solid and their forwardline is evenly balanced with little to fault.

Expecting a 1st-3rd placed finished, out of the top 4 would be a fail.

Carlton: this is tough, because with precedence since like 2015 they've been hyped to make finals again...and I really like their trading...i dont know. Honestly this could be the year they make a massive jump and really surprise people (they have a stupidly easy fixture) but also it's fucking Carlton. I feel like the first half of the year will be super inconsistent (new coach, new players) and then they'll look good from rounds 13-20 and look like making finals; then lose their last 3 games by like 60 points each lol. Players to look out for: Matt Kennedy, bit of an all-rounded midfielder who played a decent amount in the 2021 season, not a huge amount of disposals but a solid player who could link a lot of the stars together. Pat Cripps; he's gonna be excellent this year. George Hewitt, traded from Sydney in 2021 he's a pivotal player in the midfield and defence with his strong work ethic and great teamworking ability.

Expect a 6th to 14th place finish, i'm being pessimistic cos it's Carlton.

Collingwood: they're rebuilding with a weird list dyanmic, a lot of older established players near retirement and lots of younger players with little experience. Gonna be a while until they're dominant again, also want to see a recognisable brand of football. Players to look out for: Isaac Quaynor: one of my favourite players, dashy and stylish half back flanker who's really good fun to watch, got a contract extension and looks to be a player who'll stick by Collingwood for a long time to come.

Expect a 16th-18th finish

Essendon: 2021 was a great year for Essendon, their tactics under Rutten were positive, fun and exciting to watch. Which meant some high scoring games for Essendon but also some big losses with a poorer defensive structure. That said, they had an easy fixture in 2021 and I see them slipping somewhat in 2022. They'll still be promising (and looking forward to 2023-2025 for a tilt at the top 4) but their defence reeeeeealllly needs some fixing. They're old and slow down there. Players to watch: Nick Hind: so much speed and long kicking from this back flanker, sure to have another influential season in 2022. Will Snelling: gonna improve on his 2020 and 2021 seasons and really show why he's already considered one of the better mid-season draftees.

Expect a 7th to 14th finish. Could sneak into finals but with a harder fixture I can see them looking good..but just finishing out of the 8.

Fremantle: they must make finals this year...and looking at their list, they've got to. The problem is that Fremantle have historically terrible injury runs that fuck their entire list, if it doesn't happen again in 2022 (they've got a healthy and fit list so far this preseason) then expect to see them go on a good run, I honestly could see them sneaking into 5th...but i'll go with 6th cos they'll have their token loss to Carlton (who they play twice this year!). Players to watch: Fremantle's entire backline, they have about 10 good to excellent defenders and it's gonna be really difficult to fit them all into the team at once. Nat Fyfe will be back, after another sugury over summer (and infection) he will be fit, healthy and ready to go.

Expect a 5-9th finish.

I like the analysis though. Especially Carlton.

Go Tigers !

I'm sorry I've got to add some more Carlton criticism. They've lost Walsh, Liam Jones and inexplicably delisted Mick Gibbons.

I'm just wondering how they setup against a 2 or 3 tall forwardline. Like who matches up on 2 or 3 good tall forwards (e.g. a Geelong, Melbourne, Port, Dogs). They only really have one pure tall defender in Jacob Weitering (who i rate and think is an excellent player) but who else? They have perfectly good rebound and general defenders (Saad, Newman and Docherty) who can lockdown the halfback line...but who lines up on the 2nd and 3rd best forwards?? Marchbank? He hasn't played in 2 years due to injury (i think he's decent but is gonna take a while to get into form naturally), Plowman lol...he has good one on one statistics in 2021 but is generally playing against the poorer forwards, i don't think he's gonna do much against a Fritsch, Bruce or even a Georgiades imo.

Honestly even if Carlton have a good season their defence seems so leaky. It's gonna take a huuuuuuge step up from the recently traded-in Lewis Young, Marchbank or even Plowman. Idk i can't see them having a good defensive record this season.



Back to the teams:

Geelong Aged Care Facility: at first in the 2014-2018 era every media site would say "this is the year geelong hit the cliff" then from 2019 to 2022 the media has said "even though the other media are saying they will hit the cliff, I think this is their last year"....this has been going on for 3-4 years. So i'm gonna break the trend and say they're gonna hit the cliff. Yeah they've got a good core but they have to regress. I'm tipping them to miss finals, look decent but just too inconsistent and break down in the latter half of the season with their older players just getting too tired. Players to look out for: with the decline of Selwood and Dangerfield (not decline but aging process) look forward to the rise of Max Holmes, I hiiiighly rate this guy, a young midfielder who played 12 games in 2021...his stats look poor but he honestly seems like a good player for the future with the way he works. I'm seeing him transitioning into a key player in the midfield for 2022 with his defensive stats being quite good for a guy who didn't have much of the football in 2021, see him replace Selwood. Zach Guthrie; GOAThrie to continue his rise to domination of the the AFL, he had a really good end to the season in some goames where the rest of the team failed in.

Expect a 6th-10th finish.

Gold Coast Suns: I tipped them 10th before Ben King and Mac Andrew got injured. Uhhhhh I've made a mistake but I'll try and defend it. Their defence is solid with Budarick coming back. I enjoy their midfield and think that they just need to play decently, every young player has had another 4 months of pre-season. Casboult is a good pickup as is Mabior Chol due to the aforementioned King and Andrew injuries. I miiight have to change them to 13th-14th though. Players to watch: Noah Anderson; want to see continued improvement from him as he settles into the role are key midfielder.

Expect a 10th-15th finish.

Greater Western Sydney Giants: looking for another season in the finals and another shot at the Premiership; albiet I'm still predicting a 5th-8th place. Anyway it should be good fun to watch them especially when Toby Greene comes back in round 7! Their midfield should be purring, alongside a young but solid defence and 3 pronged forwardline...should be good fun overall. As long as their attacking strategy is more like 2021 than 2020 then be ready to see them approaching finals keen for a title race.

Expect a 3-7th placing.

Hawthorn: the clusterfuck of Kennett and Clarko ended with the reigns being given to the prodigal sun of Hawthorn, Sam Mitchell. Armed with a bunch of young talent that Mitchell himself coached during his years as a VFL coach, expect to see them collapse and lose their energy in many games but show small sparks of talent. It's a re-build year for Hawthorn so no real pressure, a return from injury for James Sicily will provide yet another general in the backline (alongside Frost and Hardwick. Players to look out for: Jack Scrimshaw - after a very solid season as a mid-sized/rebounding defender in 2021, expect to see this discarded player from GWS to really improve. Josh Ward - had 29 disposals in the practise game today, looking very good as pick #6.

Expect a 15th-18th placed finish.

Melbourne: last years premiers seem to not be slowing down anytime soon, expect to see a season with a top 4 finish. Very balanced list with minimal weaknesses. If they can avoid injury I can't see them finishing lower than 5th. Player to watch: Bailey Fritsch - one of my favourite players, versatile forward who can play tall and small.

Expect a 1st-4th placed finish

North Melbourne: with an excellent young core it will be exciting to watch North Melbourne at their best this year, i'm still predicting them to only turn up about half of the games this year, with 6-7 wins. But the improvement will be there, and the fans will start to really believe in North Melbourne! Players to watch: Jaidyn Stephenson - one of my faves, excellent mid-forwrd hybrid who can kick goals, run through packs and also make really fucking stupid decisions in his private life lol. Ben Mackay - the less known Mackay brother, very good defender who plays man-on-man, will really show himself as a premier defender this year.

Expect a 14th-18th placed finish.

Port Adelaide: they really need to make the grand final this year, with a mix of veterans in their finals year or two (grey, boak etc.) and an awesome young crop (Butters, Duursma, Rozee, Bergman, Drew, Sinn) they will be looking for a premiership, their first since 2004. Players to watch Dan Houston: dynamic utility who can play pretty much anywhere except ruck, loves a goal on the run from 50m out. Aliir Aliir - what's more to say, absolute power intercept defender who is pivotal to Port Adelaide's success.


Also I would like to adjust my ladder and my general predictions (before the season, I can do what I want lol) due to Gold Coast and West Coast being injured.

Previous Ladder

Ladder Prediction

1) Brisbane Lions
2) Western Bulldogs
3) Port Adelaide
4) Melbourne
5) Richmond
6) Fremantle
7) GWS
8) St Kilda
9) Geelong
10) Gold Coast
11) West Coast
12) Essendon
13) Carlton
14) Sydney
15) North Melbourne
16) Adelaide
17) Hawthorn
18) Collingwood

Premiers: Brisbane
Norm Smith: Hugh Mcluggage
Coleman: Lance Franklin
Brownlow: Zac Bailey


Updated Ladder:

Ladder Prediction

1) Brisbane Lions
2) Western Bulldogs
3) Port Adelaide
4) Melbourne
5) Fremantle
6) Richmond
7) GWS
8) St Kilda
9) Geelong
10) Essendon
11) Sydney
12) Carlton
13) Gold Coast
14) West Coast
15) North Melbourne
16) Adelaide
17) Hawthorn
18) Collingwood

Premiers: Brisbane
Norm Smith: Hugh Mcluggage
Coleman: Lance Franklin
Brownlow: Jack Steele