2019 Autumn Discussion Thread (Northern Hemisphere)

Deep-layer shear will strengthen as a powerful 500-mb jet amplifies
across the TX Panhandle and OK. This should aid in increasing
convective intensity this afternoon as effective shear averages
around 60 kts. Early morning HRRR-NCEP and HRRR-ESRL runs are more
aggressive than other individual 00Z HREF members with simulations
of several supercells from northern LA to western TN. The parent RAP
appears to be aggressive compared to other guidance with both
boundary-layer moistening and heating east of the MS River. The lack
of nearby cyclogenesis suggests this scenario is uncertain. But
should this scenario appear more likely to occur in later updates,
an upgrade to level 3 (Enhanced Slight) tornado risk would be
warranted. At this time, the more probable forecast is for a few
tornadoes centered on northern LA into western/northern MS.