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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on May 14, 2020 23:49:16 GMT -5
No I don't believe this upcoming winter will be a repeat of 13-14. This one seems...different, from what we can see with the potential development of a weak La Niña.
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Post by knot on May 15, 2020 0:19:40 GMT -5
Maxed at 9.0° C today; cooler than Perisher's 9.3, and only 2.7° C warmer than Thredbo Top Station.
Classic temp inversion.
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on May 15, 2020 0:26:19 GMT -5
Maxed at 9.0° C today; cooler than Perisher's 9.3, and only 2.7° C warmer than Thredbo Top Station. Classic temp inversion. Well let's see how much snow you get once the pattern changes in the next few days. Please post pics. We all want to see your snow.
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Post by knot on May 15, 2020 1:29:10 GMT -5
Well let's see how much snow you get once the pattern changes in the next few days. Please post pics. We all want to see your snow. If it's a good covering from next week's frontal event, I'll take pics. The previous two snowfalls were nothing more than dustings (absolute fizzers due to lack of moisture), so hopefully the next front delivers.
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Post by Babu on May 15, 2020 1:33:28 GMT -5
Snow can never freeze anything, so it wouldn't be able to cause cellular luqids to freeze causing frost damage. And most plants can handle a minor frost anyway This sounds completely wrong to me. Can you explain more? This is what I know: Snow is frozen water. Frozen means it is colder than the freezing point of water, and when it lands on the plant that is warmer it will cool down the plant. If there is enough snow or very cold snow it will start to freeze the moisture in the plant. Right? A light snow and -1 may be survivable to most plants, but sensitive plants will be harmed. I'm not a physics professor or anything but I believe 0.0'C is a kind of eqiilibrium where things will neither freeze nor melt. Water that's 0.0'C will stay as water until it dips below 0.0'C and ice that's 0.0'C will stay as ice until it dips above 0.0'C. I.e. frozen doesn't necessarily mean colder than the freezing point of water, it could be exactly the freezing point of water, and water needs temperatures below the freezing point to start to freeze. Ice can be colder than 0'C if it's been cooled down by subfreezing temperatures, but snow that's falling during above freezing temperatures and is in the process of melting will be exactly 0.0'C. Melting snow can't freeze water. There is obviously a simplification, and there is some nuance to this that I'm sure urania93 is going to be upset about. Or I could just be plain wrong too, idk
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Post by urania93 on May 15, 2020 4:35:34 GMT -5
This sounds completely wrong to me. Can you explain more? This is what I know: Snow is frozen water. Frozen means it is colder than the freezing point of water, and when it lands on the plant that is warmer it will cool down the plant. If there is enough snow or very cold snow it will start to freeze the moisture in the plant. Right? A light snow and -1 may be survivable to most plants, but sensitive plants will be harmed. I'm not a physics professor or anything but I believe 0.0'C is a kind of eqiilibrium where things will neither freeze nor melt. Water that's 0.0'C will stay as water until it dips below 0.0'C and ice that's 0.0'C will stay as ice until it dips above 0.0'C. I.e. frozen doesn't necessarily mean colder than the freezing point of water, it could be exactly the freezing point of water, and water needs temperatures below the freezing point to start to freeze. Ice can be colder than 0'C if it's been cooled down by subfreezing temperatures, but snow that's falling during above freezing temperatures and is in the process of melting will be exactly 0.0'C. Melting snow can't freeze water. There is obviously a simplification, and there is some nuance to this that I'm sure urania93 is going to be upset about. Or I could just be plain wrong too, idk Sounds like there is some confusion about energy and temperature equilibria, yes In thermodynamics, the general idea is that for a isolated system the total amount of energy is conserved (but can change from one kind of energy to the other), while the temperature tends to equilibrate until all the system is at the same temperature. If you have some water at exactly 0°C at 1 atm of pressure and without any solute in it, and if there is not any energy exchange, it will maintain its state (either liquid or solid). But here we are considering a system containing two elements (the plant and the snow) which, at the beginning, are at a different temperature and can exchange energy, so the situation is a little different. The fact that we are close to a phase transition makes the phenomenon less intuitive too. If we were far from the phase transition, some thermal energy would have passed from the warmest part of the system to the coldest one until they were at the same temperature. From the microscopic point of view thermal energy is related to the average kinetic energy of the molecules in the system, and the macroscopic observable corresponding to this average kinetic energy is the temperature of the system. So in this case the exchange of energy straightforward cause a change in the temperature. But when we are at a phase transition the situation is a little more complex, you have to consider latent heat. It is true that at a phase transition the temperature remains constant, but energy could continue to be exchanged. The reason why energy continues to flow but the temperature does not change is simply that in this case the energy is not simply transferred as kinetic energy of the molecules vibrating, but it also change their potential energy (allowing for different arrangements of the molecules, which macroscopically correspond to the phase transition). This means that if you have liquid water at 0°C and keep subtracting energy from it, it will maintain the temperature of 0°C but the system will also progressively turn into ice, and only once the all of it turner to ice and if you keep subtracting energy it you will observe the temperature decrease. Vice versa, if you have ice (or snow) at 0°C and you keep introducing energy, the temperature will remain constant but the ice would also start to melt, and once it completely melt the temperature can rise as further energy is provided [1]. This is valid for a pure system, in case of mixtures the situation is a little more complex. Anyway, in the case of snow at 0°C on a slightly warmer plant, we will have thermal energy moving from the warmest part (the plant) to the coldest (the snow). The plant is above its freezing point, so to release energy corresponds to a decreasing in its temperature. The snow, on the other hand, in this case is considered to be exactly at its phase transition, so to take some thermal energy will make it start to melt but will not increase its temperature. At the end, if the snow is enough and does not completely melt in the process, it is possible that both the plant and the snow equilibrate at a same energy of about 0°C. Still, the plant would probably not freeze completely because the water in its cells contains a lots of solutes, and salts in water lower its freezing point. This is evidently a super-simplified model, because I'm not even considering the air nor anything else. Apart from the all of this, many plants suffer low temps even without freezing nor snow (I'm thinking about the tomatoes in my parents garden...). I also agree with Doña Jimena who pointed out that snow on trees with leaves on its more likely to break the branches (more available surface = more snow which can sit on the tree = more weight). Talking about fruit trees, late snow can also be quite bad on the pollination process side, because flowers are particularly delicate and because there are not bees around when it snows, and problems in this phase usually correspond to very few fruits later in the summer.
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Post by boombo on May 15, 2020 4:58:02 GMT -5
The low last night was -2.0C, which is our latest frost in 25 years and might even be our record low for May - will have to check that one. May has had a colder low than January! How is that even possible? I know it just happened, but that shouldn't be something that happens outside of a seasonless or tropical climate. It's probably the first time it's ever happened here but NW Europe is probably more capable of getting that than anywhere else, mild southwesterlies and overcast skies dominating through the winter and then when the Atlantic influence gets weaker in spring it can sometimes open the door to Arctic airmasses with clearer skies. Fair Isle, a tiny island off the north coast of Scotland had its only frost of the whole season this year on 14th April! Our absolute lows the past few months are still pretty ridiculous though by anybody's standards: March: -3.4 April: -2.7 November: -2.6 December: -2.1 February/May: -2.0 January: -0.7 Frosts 2019/20: Autumn: 7 (avg. 7) Winter: 7 (36) Spring: 8 (13)
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Post by Babu on May 15, 2020 4:58:25 GMT -5
The situation in Trondheim is an absolute freakshow. This is the city station at a little over 100m asl And this is the airport station 30km further up the fjord And Steinkjer, at the end of the fjord with the warmest summers and coolest winters of the bunch:
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Post by Speagles84 on May 15, 2020 5:22:00 GMT -5
Severe thunderstorms all over the northeast US today. Finally back to normal temps, actually above average forecast now
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Post by boombo on May 15, 2020 5:23:27 GMT -5
Still over a metre of snow in parts of Arctic Norway and Finland as well and it's not melting at all!
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Post by boombo on May 15, 2020 8:42:47 GMT -5
I haven't noticed it being all that great here compared to April but it's been really sunny again this month a bit further west.
Ronaldsway on the Isle of Man and Aberdaron and Valley in NW Wales are all on over 150 sun hours after 14 days, same thing with Casement Aerodrome just outside Dublin.
May usually is the sunniest month the further north and west in the British Isles you go but even so, if this pattern keeps up we'll see some very impressive sun totals again.
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Post by Crunch41 on May 15, 2020 9:26:33 GMT -5
I'm not a physics professor or anything but I believe 0.0'C is a kind of eqiilibrium where things will neither freeze nor melt. Water that's 0.0'C will stay as water until it dips below 0.0'C and ice that's 0.0'C will stay as ice until it dips above 0.0'C. I.e. frozen doesn't necessarily mean colder than the freezing point of water, it could be exactly the freezing point of water, and water needs temperatures below the freezing point to start to freeze. Ice can be colder than 0'C if it's been cooled down by subfreezing temperatures, but snow that's falling during above freezing temperatures and is in the process of melting will be exactly 0.0'C. Melting snow can't freeze water. There is obviously a simplification, and there is some nuance to this that I'm sure urania93 is going to be upset about. Or I could just be plain wrong too, idk Sounds like there is some confusion about energy and temperature equilibria, yes In thermodynamics, the general idea is that for a isolated system the total amount of energy is conserved (but can change from one kind of energy to the other), while the temperature tends to equilibrate until all the system is at the same temperature. If you have some water at exactly 0°C at 1 atm of pressure and without any solute in it, and if there is not any energy exchange, it will maintain its state (either liquid or solid). But here we are considering a system containing two elements (the plant and the snow) which, at the beginning, are at a different temperature and can exchange energy, so the situation is a little different. The fact that we are close to a phase transition makes the phenomenon less intuitive too. If we were far from the phase transition, some thermal energy would have passed from the warmest part of the system to the coldest one until they were at the same temperature. From the microscopic point of view thermal energy is related to the average kinetic energy of the molecules in the system, and the macroscopic observable corresponding to this average kinetic energy is the temperature of the system. So in this case the exchange of energy straightforward cause a change in the temperature. But when we are at a phase transition the situation is a little more complex, you have to consider latent heat. It is true that at a phase transition the temperature remains constant, but energy could continue to be exchanged. The reason why energy continues to flow but the temperature does not change is simply that in this case the energy is not simply transferred as kinetic energy of the molecules vibrating, but it also change their potential energy (allowing for different arrangements of the molecules, which macroscopically correspond to the phase transition). This means that if you have liquid water at 0°C and keep subtracting energy from it, it will maintain the temperature of 0°C but the system will also progressively turn into ice, and only once the all of it turner to ice and if you keep subtracting energy it you will observe the temperature decrease. Vice versa, if you have ice (or snow) at 0°C and you keep introducing energy, the temperature will remain constant but the ice would also start to melt, and once it completely melt the temperature can rise as further energy is provided [1]. This is valid for a pure system, in case of mixtures the situation is a little more complex. Anyway, in the case of snow at 0°C on a slightly warmer plant, we will have thermal energy moving from the warmest part (the plant) to the coldest (the snow). The plant is above its freezing point, so to release energy corresponds to a decreasing in its temperature. The snow, on the other hand, in this case is considered to be exactly at its phase transition, so to take some thermal energy will make it start to melt but will not increase its temperature. At the end, if the snow is enough and does not completely melt in the process, it is possible that both the plant and the snow equilibrate at a same energy of about 0°C. Still, the plant would probably not freeze completely because the water in its cells contains a lots of solutes, and salts in water lower its freezing point. This is evidently a super-simplified model, because I'm not even considering the air nor anything else. Apart from the all of this, many plants suffer low temps even without freezing nor snow (I'm thinking about the tomatoes in my parents garden...). I also agree with Doña Jimena who pointed out that snow on trees with leaves on its more likely to break the branches (more available surface = more snow which can sit on the tree = more weight). Talking about fruit trees, late snow can also be quite bad on the pollination process side, because flowers are particularly delicate and because there are not bees around when it snows, and problems in this phase usually correspond to very few fruits later in the summer. You both seem correct to me. Light snow at 1C will not freeze the plant, snow at -5 might. When I think of snow I usually think of temperatures below freezing instead of +1 or +2C. But any snow or frost will damage sensitive plants. Late spring or early summer cold is not good for most agriculture.
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Post by Nidaros on May 15, 2020 11:26:46 GMT -5
The situation in Trondheim is an absolute freakshow. This is the city station at a little over 100m asl And this is the airport station 30km further up the fjord And Steinkjer, at the end of the fjord with the warmest summers and coolest winters of the bunch: Our local newspaper just now has an article (pay wall worst May weather ever) about this, claiming this is the coldest ever 5 day period in May since recording began 150 years ago (using mean temp), and also with so many consecutive overnight freezes. This is so extreme!
The article also mention that the highs are record cold, now the two coldest highs ever recorded seems certain including today.
However, the local newspaper fails to mention that the station at Voll is placed at a colder spot, at 127 m ASL & further from the fjord and city center, than the previous stations, which were at lower altitude and closer to the city center, with warmer averages. So the article is comparing apples and oranges when looking at data way back.
Also many years without recording at Voll (started up in again 1997).
I use the airport, has good and reliable data since 1946, digitalized, and is used as climate reference station for the region. When this kind of weather happens, with extreme cold air at height, the elevation does indeed make a difference, as that data shows. In cold nights with inversion, the airport is usually colder, and has colder annually lows.
Anyway, I have never experienced temperatures like this in May before here. Some days 10C below average. Some May days in Tromsø for sure, but never here. It is insane, and in that way interesting. Will never experience something like this again here. Oh, seems Umea has had cold weather too, with much colder lows, down to -5C. Is that normal in May?
I must be the forumer now most deserved to some good weather with above avg temps!
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Post by Ariete on May 15, 2020 11:47:15 GMT -5
We had disgusting sleet and snow here from around 7:30 to 8:30. Not enough to stick, but wet flakes all over. Disgusting. Barely got up to 10C during the afternoon.
Tomorrow is gonna be even more hideous. 7C high and a lot of rain (should stay as rain luckily).
Boke.
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Post by Ariete on May 15, 2020 12:51:57 GMT -5
Tampere today: Northern Poland today:
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Post by Babu on May 15, 2020 13:49:46 GMT -5
Yeah Nidaros we've had it cold, though not nearly as bad as you have. 2002-2018 the mean minimum was -4.2'C so the coldest nights haven't been that unusal. Although usually there are only one or two of those nights, not day after day like this year. Umeå airport has been offline since the 9th though, annoyingly enough. Here's Örnsköldsvik's airport 50km further south but at a 100m elevation: Edit: oh shit, I originally uploaded Steinkjer's data instead of Örnsköldsvik. I fixed it now
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Post by Nidaros on May 15, 2020 14:05:15 GMT -5
Örnskoldsvik seems to have had a lot warmer lows than Umeå this May then, no -5C lows there. Is that large difference normal?
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Post by Nidaros on May 15, 2020 14:13:13 GMT -5
Spring from Hell:
Warmest high in Bodø (N of the Arctic C) this year so far (mid-May): 9.3'C recorded January 2th! Same for Leknes in Lofoten, warmest high (10'C) so far on Jan 2th.
In 2019, Bodø had 17 days warmer than that by Mid-May.
At Kråkenes in W Norway, the low on May 10th of -1.3'C was colder than the coldest low in both January and February.
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on May 15, 2020 16:22:29 GMT -5
Anyway, I have never experienced temperatures like this in May before here. Some days 10C below average. Some May days in Tromsø for sure, but never here. It is insane, and in that way interesting. Will never experience something like this again here. I wouldn't be so quick to say you'll never experience weather like this in May again in Trondheim. You never know. A couple days ago I was looking at the radar and a large swathe of mid-northern coastal Norway was under snowfall. Very impressive!
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Post by Steelernation on May 15, 2020 21:24:49 GMT -5
High today was 78 (26 c), the warmest of the year. Thats tied for the 6th latest first 75 and the latest since 1995.
It was a very nice day until about 3:45. After that there was on and off light rain and some high winds but no thunder unfortunately. The dew point peaked at 61 (16 c), the warmest this year.
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