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Post by AJ1013 on Sept 30, 2021 16:26:41 GMT -5
Synopsis: A weak system moves in from the west today bringing showery and cool weather, this feature quickly slides east and out of the area tomorrow giving way to bright sunshine and seasonable temps.  Year so far  |
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Post by Steelernation on Oct 1, 2021 11:41:14 GMT -5
September was very warm and dry: Average high: 84.7 (+5.8) Average low: 49.3 (+2.1) Mean: 67.0 (+4.0) Precipitation: 0.28” (-0.44”, 39%) Precip days: 2 Max daily precip: 0.16” on the 20th T-storms: 3 Highest temp: 102 on the 10th Lowest temp: 33 on the 22nd Highest low: 64 on the 1st Lowest high: 60 on the 29th Here’s the month:  And the year:  |
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Post by Cadeau on Oct 1, 2021 14:12:00 GMT -5
Metropolitan Area
Latitude: 42°N
Temperature: -1.0°C from normal
Precipitation: 160% of normal
Sunshine: 92% of normal
September 2021 Summary
High/Low/Mean
19.5/12.1/15.8
Highest: 26.0°C[12th]
Lowest: 6.2°C[20th]
Lowest High: 14.2°C[25th]
Highest Low: 16.5°C[12th]
Precipitation: 94.0mm
Precipitation Days: 11
Snowfall: 0 cm
Snow Days: 0
Sunshine Hours: 148.7 hours
Sunshine Percentage: 39.7%
Early September: High 19.8°C / Low 13.0°C / Mean 16.4°C / Precipitation 42.0 mm / 31.8 sunshine hours
Mid September: High 20.5°C / Low 11.9°C / Mean 16.2°C / Precipitation 19.0 mm / 62.9 sunshine hours
Late September: High 18.1°C / Low 11.5°C / Mean 14.8°C / Precipitation 33.0 mm / 54.0 sunshine hours
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Post by Benfxmth on Oct 1, 2021 14:38:03 GMT -5
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps dry conditions in place through the weekend. Early next week, high pressure will slide offshore, and a cold front and low pressure will approach from the west with unsettled conditions developing by mid week.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TONIGHT/...
As of 9:00 PM Fri...No changes needed with evening update.
Prev discussion...As of 10 AM Fri...Another night of seasonably cool weather under clear skies and calm winds with the high pres area remaining nearly overhead. Low temps will be near seasonal norms, generally in the lower 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 10 AM Fri...Typical seasonable temps for the beginning of October with high temps expected generally in the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. High pressure will be centered just to the north providing light northerly winds.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 9 AM Fri...Quiet period continues through early week. Deeper moisture develops Tuesday through late week, with increasingly unsettled conditions expected.
Saturday Night through Monday...Deep ridging remains in control through Monday. PoPs are minimal through Monday, owing primarily to very dry air aloft. At the surface, high pressure passes overhead Saturday, the slowly slides further offshore through early week. This will bring temps within a couple degrees of normal on Saturday, but increasing temps to slightly above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday through Friday...Upper trough digging rapidly to the west could cut off an upper low Tuesday, with a blocking pattern setting up through the end of the workweek. While trough amplitude and location remain somewhat uncertain, there is increasing confidence that deep layer moisture advection will increase through the middle of next week as a cold front approaches and possibly stalls inland. The trough and front may remain too far west Tuesday and Wednesday to bring much broad lift locally, and precip coverage will be mainly dependent thermodynamic factors and local triggers (sea breeze, outflow, differential heating, etc.). A more potent shortwave could cross the area Thursday or Friday, but confidence is too low to justify anything above chance PoPs in the forecast at this point. High temps generally within a few degrees of normal each day with increasing moisture advection bringing increased cloud cover. Lows at night will be warmer for the same reason.  |
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Post by jgtheone on Oct 2, 2021 5:16:39 GMT -5
7 day forecast for Northlake: Warm to start before some midweek rain and storms, cooling by the weekend but remaining mostly cloudy.  7 day forecast for Blocktown: Unstable start before some cooler weather midweek, warming back up to slightly above average by the weekend. 
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Post by Steelernation on Oct 2, 2021 13:15:17 GMT -5
Above average temps return:  10/6: High 80 Low 49 🌤 10/7: High 76 Low 47 🌤 10/8: High 76 Low 47 ☀️ 10/9: High 80 Low 46 🌤 Averages on 10/3 are 71/42 and on 10/9 they are 67/40 In C: High 24 Low 6 High 26 Low 9 High 29 Low 10 High 27 Low 9 High 24 Low 8 High 24 Low 8 High 27 Low 8 Averages on 10/3 are 22/6 and on 10/9 they are 19/4 |
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Post by Moron on Oct 2, 2021 22:51:54 GMT -5
Forecast for L'Ushgabal Center
October 3- 20/8- sunny, light winds becoming S/SW 20-30km/h in the morning tending S/SE 15-25km/h throughout the day.
October 4- 22/8- mostly sunny, winds S/SE 10-20km/h.
October 5- 24/6- sunny, winds SE 15-25km/h becoming E 10-15km/h in the late morning then light in the late evening.
October 6- 25/8- partly cloudy, light winds becoming E/SE 10-20km/h.
October 7- 25/10- sunny, winds SE 15-25km/h.
October 8- 26/12- mostly sunny, winds SE 10-20km/h.
October 9- 26/13- sunny, light winds.
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Post by Cadeau on Oct 3, 2021 14:42:04 GMT -5
Metropolitan Area
Latitude: 42°N - 7 Days of Quarter-Day Weather Forecast
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Post by Giorbanguly on Oct 4, 2021 1:38:35 GMT -5
Yearly overview  September the only month of the year with no precipitation so far |
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Post by tommyFL on Oct 6, 2021 13:59:54 GMT -5
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Post by Benfxmth on Oct 8, 2021 4:28:27 GMT -5
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain to the north, while a trough evolves into a slow moving meandering low pressure area off the coast through early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 9:30 AM Fri...Very little precipitation being detected on radar at the moment with just a few stray showers off the coast. This will be changing as scattered showers are expected to develop this afternoon along the coast, and scattered to numerous showers will move into the area by early evening. Weak low pressure will be developing today along the offshore trough and contribute to the increased shower chances along the coast, while an approaching mid level trough will be responsible for the showers/thunderstorms moving into the coastal plain late today. With PW values continuing AOA 1.4-1.7", some heavy downpours will be possible in the heaviest showers, especially with the activity forecast to move into the coastal plain. High temps tempered a bit due to the onshore flow and cloud cover, with readings generally in the mid 80s, and dew points generally in the lower to mid 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 9:30 AM Fri...As the mid level trough moves into the area, it is forecast to intercept a weak low to the south tonight resulting in modest deepening and drawing the low northward overnight. This will result in scattered to numerous showers/possible thunderstorms. Will increase PoPs to likely for all areas by 18z Friday. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 9:30 AM Friday...Unsettled conditions continue through the weekend as deep moisture remains in place. Upper level troughing overhead and a coastal trough/weak low with potential for further deepening slowly moves up the coast.
Weekend...Slightly negatively tilted upper trough extends SSEward as ridging increases to the west. The trough becomes more N-S oriented as it moves overhead early Sunday. At the SFC, the area will receive mostly onshore flow in the north in a very moist air mass with PWats at the lowest 1.4" inland and around 1.5-1.8" inches along the coast. Showers and isolated tstorms push ashore through the day and with better upper level support, heavy downpours become possible. With so much uncertainty of the exact progression of the low, all outcomes have to be considered. Should the NAM solution of a deepening low coming ashore along our southern forecast area come to fruition, increased shear and veering winds through the day will make the development of cells with low level rotation possible.
Ample cloud coverage and precip cooling keeps highs in the upper 70s to lower-mid 80s. Muggy mornings by October standards as well, with lows in the mid 60s.
Next week...Vast model differences make details of early next week murky. However, weak ridging is expected to build ahead of an upper low breaking off of a deep trough to the west once the SFC low finally elongates and moves offshore. Trends will be drier and warmer as the high pressure increases over the area lasting through most of the week. Back to highs in the mid to upper 80s through most of the week.
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Post by jgtheone on Oct 9, 2021 4:31:14 GMT -5
7 day forecast for Northlake: Dry and sunny for most of the week, before cloud and wind increases on Saturday afternoon with rain moving in on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts are possible for higher elevated suburbs on Saturday evening and Sunday morning.  7 day forecast for Blocktown: Hot and sunny to start, before some instability develops midweek with severe storms possible for most of Friday. Storms should continue well into the weekend. 
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Post by rozenn on Oct 10, 2021 7:18:32 GMT -5
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Post by tommyFL on Oct 10, 2021 12:18:00 GMT -5
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Post by Cadeau on Oct 10, 2021 13:35:24 GMT -5
Metropolitan Area
Latitude: 42°N - 7 Days of Quarter-Day Weather Forecast
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Post by Steelernation on Oct 10, 2021 17:09:10 GMT -5
First real cold snap of the fall although still likely no snow  10/15: High 53 Low 28 🌥 Mostly cloudy 10/16: High 61 Low 33 ⛅️ Partly cloudy Averages on 10/10 are 67/40 and on 10/16 they are 64/37 In C: High 21 Low 4 High 20 Low 7 High 19 Low 1 High 8 Low -2 High 11 Low -2 High 12 Low -2 High 16 Low 1 Averages on 10/10 are 19/4 and on 10/16 they are 18/3 |
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Post by ilmc90 on Oct 10, 2021 21:53:48 GMT -5
First freeze of the season expected this weekend.
Sunday, 10/10: Rain. Rainfall a quarter inch to half an inch.
High 53 F/12 C. Low 44 F/7 C.
Monday, 10/11: Mix of sun and clouds.
High 54 F/12 C. Low 41 F/5 C.
Tuesday, 10/12: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers becoming a steadier rain late afternoon and evening. Rainfall a quarter inch to half an inch.
High 54 F/12 C. Low 42 F/6 C.
Wednesday, 10/13: Cloudy with periods of rain. Rainfall around a quarter inch.
High 44 F/7 C. Low 38 F/3 C.
Thursday, 10/14: Partly cloudy and breezy.
High 48 F/9 C. Low 35 F/2 C.
Friday, 10/15: Mostly Sunny. Some patchy frost in the morning.
High 59 F/15 C. Low 34 F/1 C.
Saturday, 10/16: Mostly Sunny.
High 63 F/17 C. Low 29 F/-2 C.
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Post by rozenn on Oct 15, 2021 16:33:19 GMT -5
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Post by tommyFL on Oct 15, 2021 17:13:48 GMT -5
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Post by jgtheone on Oct 15, 2021 22:41:39 GMT -5
7 day forecast for Northlake: Showers, wind and cool conditions easing by Wednesday, where it begins to warm up into the early 30s by Sunday.  7 day forecast for Blocktown: Showers, becoming more scattered and easing by Wednesday afternoon. Remaining cloudy until Friday afternoon before a sunny and average-slightly above average weekend for this time of year. 
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Lived:
Residence:
