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Post by Met.Data on Dec 18, 2020 13:50:41 GMT -5
From Netweather of course, this is the gayest thing I've ever seen. 45% chance of a white Christmas? Yeah going by the dumb definition of one flake of snow falling.  Prolly wouldn't even notice that!
More likely,
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2020 7:21:24 GMT -5
It gives me a 15% chance of snow, lol. Ridiculous.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2020 10:28:18 GMT -5
Netweather is the king of cold boteving. Everyone on there seems to think the UK has the climate of Siberia.
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Post by jgtheone on Dec 21, 2020 3:38:43 GMT -5
>originally forecast 28C 2 days ago >gets downgraded to 26C the next day >gets downgraded to 24C today >only reaches 22C I don't even know what you would call that. More than a standard fizzer. I'm surprised it didn't just keep going down until 0C  |
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Post by Benfxmth on Dec 22, 2020 11:32:06 GMT -5
Lol  I didn't make this up; I believe that the temperature units got mixed up. |
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Post by Met.Data on Dec 23, 2020 16:38:01 GMT -5
A notably wet day today up to 20.00mm and counting. Another few very wet days on the way.
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Post by Beercules on Dec 23, 2020 17:11:22 GMT -5
>originally forecast 28C 2 days ago >gets downgraded to 26C the next day >gets downgraded to 24C today >only reaches 22C I don't even know what you would call that. More than a standard fizzer. I'm surprised it didn't just keep going down until 0C I'd call that Dickcember 2020. Like my 35c forecast which didnt exceed 20c until midday, and ended up being only 27c. Meanwhile, Herp De Derffff's Christmas got systematically upgraded from 18/31C to 22/37C. Today will be 40C there.  |
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Post by Babu on Dec 24, 2020 11:11:58 GMT -5
SMHI have gone out and said that from now on they will be releasing new 30 year normals every 10 years, and they'll also retroactively release the old normals as well (1981-2010, 1971-2000 etc.). This is great news. Finally! However, they also mentioned that they're going to alter the old 1961-1990 normals (upon which climate change calculations are going to be based) because they have more data available now compared to before and so a better understanding of the climate then. A bit worrying perhaps but at the same time it does make sense, at least for the stations that didn't have complete timeseries for the whole period. Hopefully the new normals will be released relatively quickly but with SMHI you never know...
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Post by Nidaros on Dec 25, 2020 16:43:12 GMT -5
Our metoffice too has expressed that they are going to update their 30-year normals /avg every 10-year, and not wait for a whole new 30-year period. This was also what the World Meteorological Organization recommends for the next normal period.
As a side note, seems there is one station in Norway that might get annual mean above 10c this year, probably 10.3c.
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Post by Met.Data on Dec 26, 2020 21:55:26 GMT -5
Pissing it down outside as storm Bekky/Betty/Bitchy whatever passes over. December is now well above average for rain fall and so also now is the year. AGAIN.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2020 21:58:02 GMT -5
Our metoffice too has expressed that they are going to update their 30-year normals /avg every 10-year, and not wait for a whole new 30-year period. This was also what the World Meteorological Organization recommends for the next normal period. As a side note, seems there is one station in Norway that might get annual mean above 10c this year, probably 10.3c. 10'C+ annual mean in NORWAY? For crying out loud... I'm at 44'N, 220m elevation, and have an annual mean of 7-8'C. Fuck this shithouse climate. |
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Post by Babu on Dec 27, 2020 8:14:12 GMT -5
Very unusual year in so many ways, not only weatherwise. Here's Holmön in Umeå Municipality  Much more impressive is Finnish owned Valassaaret just 30-40km south. A mean of 7.8'C with just a couple more days left, in the BOTHNIAN sea at 63.4°N. This isn't some Norwegian station located inside the gulf stream.  In fact, it's managed to be just as warm as Trondheim Værnes this year (!!) despite being on the wrong side of the Scandes and even further north.  In Sweden you have to go down to Brämön outside Sundsvall at 62.2°N for similar temps this year.  |
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Post by Nidaros on Dec 27, 2020 8:55:25 GMT -5
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Post by Ariete on Dec 27, 2020 11:26:27 GMT -5
Very unusual year in so many ways, not only weatherwise. Here's Holmön in Umeå Municipality Much more impressive is Finnish owned Valassaaret just 30-40km south. A mean of 7.8'C with just a couple more days left, in the BOTHNIAN sea at 63.4°N. This isn't some Norwegian station located inside the gulf stream. In fact, it's managed to be just as warm as Trondheim Værnes this year (!!) despite being on the wrong side of the Scandes and even further north. In Sweden you have to go down to Brämön outside Sundsvall at 62.2°N for similar temps this year.
Meanwhile Utö is just managing a 9.3C mean so far, as it suffers from cold springs and severe crummers.
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Post by nei on Dec 27, 2020 13:20:51 GMT -5
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Post by Strewthless on Dec 29, 2020 5:40:15 GMT -5
The snow is falling, but it's not sticking |
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Post by Babu on Dec 29, 2020 10:33:38 GMT -5
Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) has averaged -0.6'C for the last 30 years, 0.5'C for the last 10 years and 0.3'C for the last 5 years, at Umeå Airport. Do you think it's more probably that Umeå airport will record a subfreezing or above freezing Q4 in 2021? (If we assume that the median and mean is the same)
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Post by kronan on Dec 29, 2020 10:53:49 GMT -5
^^
goddamn it. when sweden finally is about to get a new normal period, why go full schlommo and continue with this 2005-2020 BS?
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Post by Babu on Dec 29, 2020 11:11:57 GMT -5
^^ goddamn it. when sweden finally is about to get a new normal period, why go full schlommo and continue with this 2005-2020 BS? Haha, why do you always try to assume I have some botev agenda? 10 year normals are shit for describing climate, but most met agencies use 10 year normals in one way or the other because they do have their uses in certain scenarios. Don't dismiss everything I say just because you have a preconceived notion that I have some hidden agenda that you've decided is bullshit. When posting monthly and annual summaries I will compare them to the 30 year normal, as well as the last 10 year average, because they're both relevant, just in different ways and extents. |
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Post by Babu on Dec 29, 2020 11:21:45 GMT -5
30 year normals are the absolute best way to compare the long term climate between different stations and areas. But for determining today's climate around a specific station? There's no single "best way" for doing so. Should you use a 30 year average centered 15 years ago, or a 10 year average cenetered 5 years ago? Or should you take the 30 year average centered 15 years ago, and then add to each month the long term average warming/cooling per decade? It's a nuanced discussion, which is what I'm trying to make it into. All this black and white "The official 30 year normal is the best to use in every single case no matter what the case may be, and anyone suggesting anything else is an idiotic botev" stuff is very insular.
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Prolly wouldn't even notice that! 
