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Post by MET on Jul 30, 2023 7:57:12 GMT -5
OMG the neighbour is outside grilling lunch with no top on and it's 17 degrees with drizzle.
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Post by jgtheone on Aug 1, 2023 5:32:25 GMT -5
Not sure if it's been posted, but the song "April Sun in Cuba" is actually climatically accurate. The sunniest month in Havana, the capital of Cuba, is indeed April. Also the song is really good  |
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Post by Benfxmth on Aug 4, 2023 7:16:46 GMT -5
Interesting. Somewhat different rising/sinking air patterns this NH summer, compared to other top three Nino years
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Post by MET on Aug 5, 2023 11:25:54 GMT -5
Feels like a loooooooooooooong October this year with the morbidly intense overcast and frequent rain since early July going on and on without remitt. Not a complaint so much as an observation. Just doesn't seem like there's been a summer this year. Straight into Autumn after the two weeks of sun in June. Weird sensation. Bit like being a woodlouse hanging out under some soil or a rock.
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Post by cawfeefan on Aug 11, 2023 9:37:28 GMT -5
Distribution of summer max temps in Melbourne Olympic Park over the last 8 years (Dec, Jan, Feb):
2022-23:
>40c: 1
35-39.9c: 5
30-34.9c: 13
25-29.9c: 21
20-24.9c: 34
<20c: 16
2021-22:
>40c: 0
35-39.9c: 3
30-34.9c: 26
25-29.9c: 17
20-24.9c: 31
<20c: 13
2020-21:
>40c: 0
35-39.9c: 3
30-34.9c: 12
25-29.9c: 21
20-24.9c: 33
<20c: 21
2019-20:
>40c: 4
35-39.9c: 4
30-34.9c: 11
25-29.9c: 20
20-24.9c: 33
<20c: 19
2018-19:
>40c: 3
35-39.9c: 8
30-34.9c: 14
25-29.9c: 17
20-24.9c: 44
<20c: 4
2017-18:
>40c: 3
35-39.9c: 4
30-34.9c: 17
25-29.9c: 21
20-24.9c: 37
<20c: 8
2016-17:
>40c: 0
35-39.9c: 10
30-34.9c: 14
25-29.9c: 19
20-24.9c: 32
<20c: 15
2015-16:
>40c: 2
35-39.9c: 8
30-34.9c: 10
25-29.9c: 23
20-24.9c: 40
<20c: 8
Total - 722 days:
>40c: 13 (1.8% of summer days)
35-39.9c: 45 (6.2%)
30-34.9c: 117 (16.2%)
25-29.9c: 159 (22.0%)
20-24.9c: 284 (39.3%)
<20c: 104 (14.4%)
It was interesting to analyse how max temps are distributed in Melbourne during the bipolar summers. Whether you think it's Heathrow with a few hot days thrown in, that's up to your interpretation.
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Post by MET on Aug 18, 2023 18:13:18 GMT -5
HECTOR'S WEATHER CHAT
Well here we are at 19 August, and all the crazy heat over the continent, that has at times been modelled to wash over the UK, has repeatedly been swept aside, most thankfully. Comfortable conditions continue into late August, and now it appears like a natural decline in temperatures heading into September and autumn. Been a comfortable July+August, though July was too wet. It has been a poor summer for the major forecast models, often projecting plumes of hot air over the UK, only to retract them by days 4-5 on a continually consistent basis. No doubt frustrating for the heat lovers, but good for we who enjoy our comfort.
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Post by omegaraptor on Aug 18, 2023 18:36:44 GMT -5
The Kahli Forn Yah hurricane won’t happen. Mark my words.
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Post by MET on Aug 24, 2023 18:46:44 GMT -5
HECTOR'S WEATHER CHAT
Well here we are at 25 August, and summer's basically done now, after that cold front yesterday. Barely scraping 20°C from hereon, so quite a cool refreshing airmass. Not complaining personally, though there will be a few showers to watch out for.
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Post by greysrigging on Aug 25, 2023 1:34:12 GMT -5
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Post by alex992 on Aug 26, 2023 9:04:44 GMT -5
Looking at weather forecasts for the last four months has been some of the most annoying shit ever.
Here's how they've gone:
1.) Nice cool snap and/or wet period with storms shows up in the forecast.
2.) Cool snap and/or storms gets weakened, and just disappears and eventually becomes just average temps with sun.
3.) Average temps get "upgraded" to above average temps with again, more bald sun.
4.) Above average temps and sun with no rain for the entire forecast.
5.) Rinse and repeat.
Most boring weather pattern ever. Haven't had a high below 70 F since May yet also the only notable heat that occurred this summer was this last heat wave where we hit 97 F / 36.1 C. I don't get how anyone can find this type of weather interesting in any sort of way.
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Post by Benfxmth on Aug 27, 2023 7:44:46 GMT -5
alex992 Welcome to my world bror. That sounds exactly what I had all May and June long, except that it was about interesting heat and storms getting wiped out with each forecast update. No, that wasn't about some far-out fantasy-range ECMWF/GFS forecasts 10 days out. Few things piss me off more than NWS forecasting fantastical heat getting downgraded into some motherfucken gay boring ass fucken mundane average or below average temps (or "severe thunderstorms" being light ass rain)  
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Post by Benfxmth on Aug 28, 2023 16:20:44 GMT -5
Simple physics explains why highest measured land wind speeds don't match NHC reported highest winds...just saying
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Post by tommyFL on Aug 29, 2023 17:16:15 GMT -5
Simple physics explains why highest measured land wind speeds don't match NHC reported highest winds...just saying Slight correction... "NHC wind speeds are measured over open water"...not quite, wind speeds are not measured by NHC at all, they are estimated. So the source of the discrepancy between NHC reported winds and observed land surface winds is both estimation error and frictional effects. |
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Post by Benfxmth on Aug 29, 2023 17:58:04 GMT -5
Simple physics explains why highest measured land wind speeds don't match NHC reported highest winds...just saying Slight correction... "NHC wind speeds are measured over open water"...not quite, wind speeds are not measured by NHC at all, they are estimated. So the source of the discrepancy between NHC reported winds and observed land surface winds is both estimation error and frictional effects. Not always. Hurricane Hunter aircraft measure winds above-surface and then approximate wind speeds, or (especially for the stronger hurricanes), use dropsondes to get direct measurements for wind speeds near and above ground level: The sudden drop-off
When a hurricane passes over open water toward the U.S. coast, wind observations come from five main sources:
—Reliable flight-level wind data measured directly from Hurricane Hunter aircraft, adjusted to the surface from measurement levels that are typically around 700 mb (3000 meters or 10,000 feet)
—Dropsondes that descend from Hurricane Hunter aircraft
—The Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) aboard Hurricane Hunter planes. The SFMR infers near-surface wind speed by passively sensing microwave radiation from the ocean surface.
—Satellite imagery, which allows forecasters to use the Dvorak technique to obtain estimates of winds and central pressure
—Ground-based NEXRAD Doppler radars (assuming that one or more are located near the landfall region)
Satellite- and aircraft-based techniques aren’t perfect, but they can provide a solid overview of wind distribution patterns up to landfall. From that point on, land-based reports—collected from volunteer observers, NWS and military weather stations, state-based instrument networks, and portable radars—become increasingly important. Personal weather stations can also play a role: one PWS measured a 199-mph gust from Hurricane Irma on St. Barts, as we reported in January.
The catch is that a storm’s character can change dramatically in the several hours just before and especially just after landfall. Peak wind speeds tend to drop off quickly, especially if a hurricane’s structure becomes compromised in the hours before landfall.
“Within less than a mile of the coast, the sustained winds drop by about 20% due to greater surface friction,” noted Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, in an email. “Substantial weakening of the peak winds is also occurring over the first several hours after landfall as the center of the hurricane continues moving inland.”
Several other factors also reduce the odds a hurricane’s official strength at landfall will be verified over land.
Peak winds are used to categorize an entire hurricane. The strongest winds in a given hurricane would only be expected to occur in a small part of that hurricane's total wind field. Take the analogy of a tornado: a block of well-built homes swept cleanly off their foundations can dictate an entire twister’s rating on the Enhanced Fujita Scale (e.g., an EF5). Similarly, the strongest wind speeds in a hurricane will determine its Saffir-Simpson rating, even if those peak winds occur only in a very small area.
My colleague Dr. Jeff Masters, who encountered Hurricane Hugo first hand in 1989 as a NOAA flight meteorologist, pointed out how densely packed a hurricane’s peak winds can be. “Major hurricanes sometimes concentrate their Cat 2 and stronger winds exclusively in the eyewall,” he told me. “Flying into Hurricane Hugo at 1,500 feet, we found Cat 1 winds in a spiral band as we approached the eyewall, but no other hurricane-force winds until we hit the eyewall, when we encountered Cat 5 winds. Hugo’s flight-level winds were only 60 mph in the moat region just outside the eyewall.”Source: www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-winds-landfall-why-it-they-seem-fall-short |
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Post by MET on Sept 15, 2023 11:50:34 GMT -5
HECTOR'S WEATHER CHAT
Well fuckoon well, batman smells. It's half-way through September, and what a stinker it's been innit? Still 2°C higher mean temp than the "warm" June, and an avg. low of 14.1°C. What is this, the tropics? Some guy once said the UK was becoming "a equatorial country" due to warming - was he onto something? Thankfully I've seen highs of 11°C projected on the models, so REAL autumn will be arriving before too long, yoo know, those mellow sultry misty mornings and crisp frosty nights and soft glowing sun on the reddening leaves. Aaaaaaaah. Bring it the fuck on. And hopefully there will be no more 20°C until 1st July next year. On that, we can all agree.
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Post by tommyFL on Sept 16, 2023 16:37:21 GMT -5
Mean lowest season-to-date temperature reached by certain dates (beginning August 1st)
Number of allowable days with missing data is one per month.
August 5th: 72.5 °F (22.5 °C)
August 10th: 71.8 °F (22.1 °C)
August 15th: 71.6 °F (22.0 °C)
August 20th: 71.5 °F (21.9 °C)
August 25th: 71.5 °F (21.9 °C)
August 31st: 71.3 °F (21.8 °C)
September 5th: 70.9 °F (21.6 °C)
September 10th: 70.7 °F (21.5 °C)
September 15th: 70.6 °F (21.4 °C)
September 20th: 70.4 °F (21.3 °C)
September 25th: 69.8 °F (21.0 °C)
September 31st: 68.9 °F (20.5 °C)
October 5th: 67.6 °F (19.8 °C)
October 10th: 67.4 °F (19.7 °C)
October 15th: 66.8 °F (19.3 °C)
October 20th: 63.3 °F (17.4 °C)
October 25th: 61.0 °F (16.1 °C)
October 31st: 58.5 °F (14.7 °C)
November 5th: 56.3 °F (13.5 °C)
November 10th: 55.1 °F (12.8 °C)
November 15th: 53.9 °F (12.2 °C)
November 20th: 52.9 °F (11.6 °C)
November 25th: 51.4 °F (10.8 °C)
November 30th: 49.5 °F (9.7 °C)
December 5th: 47.4 °F (8.6 °C)
December 10th: 46.1 °F (7.8 °C)
December 15th: 44.9 °F (7.2 °C)
December 20th: 44.3 °F (6.8 °C)
December 25th: 42.6 °F (5.9 °C)
December 31st: 41.8 °F (5.4 °C)
January 5th: 40.2 °F (4.6 °C)
January 10th: 38.8 °F (3.8 °C)
January 15th: 38.3 °F (3.5 °C)
January 20th: 37.3 °F (2.9 °C)
January 25th: 35.9 °F (2.2 °C)
January 31st: 35.3 °F (1.8 °C)
February 5th: 34.9 °F (1.6 °C)
February 10th: 34.9 °F (1.6 °C)
February 15th: 34.9 °F (1.6 °C)
February 20th: 34.7 °F (1.5 °C)
Lowest temperature of the season has never occurred after February 20th.
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Post by Steelernation on Sept 16, 2023 18:08:22 GMT -5
^Interesting idea.
Here’s for Fort Collins
08/05: 51
08/10: 51
08/15: 50
08/20: 49
08/25: 49
08/31: 48
09/05: 46
09/10: 44
09/15: 41
09/20: 39
09/25: 36
09/30: 35
10/05: 33
10/10: 30
10/15: 28
10/20: 26
10/25: 24
10/31: 19
11/05: 18
11/10: 17
11/15: 14
11/20: 13
11/25: 10
11/30: 7
12/05: 5
12/10: 2
12/15: 1
12/20: 0
12/25: -1
12/31: -2
01/05: -4
01/10: -5
01/15: -6
01/20: -6
01/25: -6
01/31: -6
02/05: -7
02/10: -8
Mean min: -8
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Post by Benfxmth on Sept 16, 2023 19:20:10 GMT -5
For 1991-2020
August 5th: 68.7°F
August 10th: 66.3°F
August 15th: 65.0°F
August 20th: 64.6°F
August 25th: 63.4°F
August 31st: 62.8°F
September 5th: 61.7°F
September 10th: 60.7°F
September 15th: 59.3°F
September 20th: 57.6°F
September 25th: 56.1°F
September 30th: 54.4°F
October 5th: 51.0°F
October 10th: 49.2°F
October 15th: 46.8°F
October 20th: 43.1°F
October 25th: 40.7°F
October 31st: 38.1°F
November 5th: 35.8°F
November 10th: 34.2°F
November 15th: 32.3°F
November 20th: 30.9°F
November 25th: 29.1°F
November 30th: 27.7°F
December 5th: 27.0°F
December 10th: 25.8°F
December 15th: 24.8°F
December 20th: 23.7°F
December 25th: 22.8°F
December 30th: 22.0°F
January 5th: 20.5°F
January 10th: 19.3°F
January 15th: 19.0°F
January 20th: 18.0°F
January 25th: 16.8°F
January 31st: 16.7°F
February 5th: 16.6°F
February 10th: 16.5°F
February 15th: 16.5°F
February 20th: 16.1°F
February 25th: 16.0°F
February 28th: 16.0°F
March 5th: 16.0°F
March 10th: 16.0°F
March 15th: 15.9°F
No year has seen the coldest temp-of-season occur later than March 13th (1998).
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Post by Benfxmth on Sept 16, 2023 19:52:18 GMT -5
Warmest maxes (since January 1, for 1991-2020; you can use entire POR if you want)
January 5th: 66.0°F
January 10th: 71.3°F
January 15th: 73.1°F
January 20th: 74.1°F
January 25th: 74.7°F
January 31st: 75.1°F
February 5th: 76.0°F
February 10th: 76.7°F
February 15th: 77.1°F
February 20th: 78.1°F
February 25th: 78.6°F
February 28th: 78.7°F
March 5th: 79.6°F
March 10th: 80.6°F
March 15th: 81.1°F
March 20th: 82.0°F
March 25th: 82.4°F
March 31st: 83.0°F
April 5th: 84.1°F
April 10th: 85.4°F
April 15th: 85.9°F
April 20th: 86.6°F
April 25th: 87.5°F
April 30th: 87.7°F
May 5th: 88.3°F
May 10th: 89.2°F
May 15th: 90.1°F
May 20th: 91.0°F
May 25th: 92.0°F
May 31st: 92.3°F
June 5th: 93.3°F
June 10th: 93.9°F
June 15th: 95.1°F
June 20th: 95.5°F
June 25th: 95.7°F
June 30th: 96.0°F
July 5th: 96.3°F
July 10th: 96.8°F
July 15th: 96.9°F
July 20th: 97.1°F
July 25th: 97.2°F
July 31st: 97.6°F
August 5th: 97.7°F
August 10th: 98.0°F
August 15th: 98.0°F
August 20th: 98.0°F
August 25th: 98.2°F
No year has seen a warmest temp-of-season later than August 24th (2002), entire POR-inclusive.
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Post by tommyFL on Sept 16, 2023 20:29:48 GMT -5
Mean highest max temps, beginning Jan 1st
January 5th: 81.6 °F (27.6 °C)
January 10th: 82.4 °F (28.0 °C)
January 15th: 83.3 °F (28.5 °C)
January 20th: 83.4 °F (28.6 °C)
January 25th: 83.8 °F (28.8 °C)
January 31st: 83.9 °F (28.8 °C)
February 5th: 84.2 °F (29.0 °C)
February 10th: 84.2 °F (29.0 °C)
February 15th: 84.7 °F (29.3 °C)
February 20th: 85.4 °F (29.7 °C)
February 25th: 86.4 °F (30.2 °C)
February 28th: 86.5 °F (30.3 °C)
March 5th: 86.8 °F (30.4 °C)
March 10th: 86.9 °F (30.5 °C)
March 15th: 87.2 °F (30.7 °C)
March 20th: 87.4 °F (30.8 °C)
March 25th: 87.7 °F (30.9 °C)
March 31st: 88.4 °F (31.3 °C)
April 5th: 88.8 °F (31.6 °C)
April 10th: 89.7 °F (32.1 °C)
April 15th: 90.4 °F (32.4 °C)
April 20th: 90.6 °F (32.6 °C)
April 25th: 90.8 °F (32.7 °C)
April 30th: 91.0 °F (32.8 °C)
May 5th: 91.7 °F (33.2 °C)
May 10th: 91.9 °F (33.3 °C)
May 15th: 92.1 °F (33.4 °C)
May 20th: 92.3 °F (33.5 °C)
May 25th: 92.5 °F (33.6 °C)
May 31st: 92.6 °F (33.7 °C)
June 5th: 93.1 °F (33.9 °C)
June 10th: 93.5 °F (34.2 °C)
June 15th: 93.9 °F (34.4 °C)
June 20th: 93.9 °F (34.4 °C)
June 25th: 94.7 °F (34.8 °C)
June 30th: 94.8 °F (34.9 °C)
July 5th: 94.9 °F (34.9 °C)
July 10th: 95.0 °F (35.0 °C)
July 15th: 95.0 °F (35.0 °C)
July 20th: 95.1 °F (35.1 °C)
July 25th: 95.5 °F (35.3 °C)
July 31st: 95.6 °F (35.3 °C)
August 5th: 95.7 °F (35.4 °C)
August 10th: 95.7 °F (35.4 °C)
August 15th: 95.8 °F (35.4 °C)
August 20th: 95.9 °F (35.5 °C)
August 22nd: 95.9 °F (35.5 °C)
Highest temp of the year has never occurred after August 22nd.
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