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Post by greysrigging on Feb 23, 2022 21:06:01 GMT -5
From Pilko earlier this morning.... "Good morning trendsetters.. It’s been a pretty busy day or two on the weather front for a couple of areas in Australia. Namely SE QLD and NE and coastal NSW with some big rain and of course the northern Tropics with a monsoon and a couple of low pressure centres. The rest of the country is more or less sitting around twiddling their thumbs at the moment. So our attention in the Top End is focussed on what on earth this low to our west is intent on doing. Again this morning there continues to be a bit of a flip of the coin on where it will go and if it will develop etc. it is pretty visible on the satellite map as to its location, although never assume the biggest brightest cloud is the low itself. Generally explosive convection at the lows early development is offset from the centre of the low pressure centre but radar imaging puts it west of Darwin by about 250 kms .. give or take 100 😝 The low is deepening and is very slow moving and the general consensus with ALL models is that it won’t be moving very far at all today. Even tomorrow looks to be a very slow movement as it sits wedged between the strengthening monsoon to the north, which models anticipate will push it East or a ridge to our south that some models suggest will out muscle the monsoon and push it west. It really is sitting out there like a spinning top. But whilst it’s developing it is going to start spinning showers and storms left right and centre, the radar is showing that now after a pretty benign 24 hours in the Darwin area. So at this stage it’s all systems go for a reasonably showery day about the North Western Top End and it looks to be reasonably breezy as well particularly coastal and Island communities that are exposed to the deepening NW monsoonal flow. We will keep you up to speed on any developments as they come to hand but my advice is to always prepare just in case. Have a great day and will chat to you later with an update. BoM charts showing current radar and the Access model that depicts the expected location of our low at 11pm Friday night."   This is the scenario we all hope for...would be Biblical rainfall out in all the big river catchments.   |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 24, 2022 0:34:23 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 24, 2022 1:09:02 GMT -5
A nice squally rainband just passed through...   |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 24, 2022 2:08:22 GMT -5
Some wild weather off the coast in Darwin Harbour...a waterspout just now   |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 24, 2022 15:37:46 GMT -5
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Post by jetshnl on Feb 24, 2022 15:39:05 GMT -5
Darwin River Dam going to fill up this year? First time in 4 years?
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 24, 2022 15:43:39 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 24, 2022 22:17:28 GMT -5
An exceptionally cool day so far ( 12.30pm ) with a max temp of only 24.9c. Heavy overcast and light rain. The coldest February day on record was during Cyclone Carlos in 2011, 24.8c.  |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 24, 2022 22:27:43 GMT -5
Still a lot of uncertainty with this one. BOM Headline: A tropical low (23U) in the Timor Sea is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone tonight and move closer to the coast over the weekend. Areas affected: Warning zone: Mitchell Plateau to WA/NT Border, including Wyndham and Kalumburu, not including Kununurra. Watch zone: Point Stuart to Dundee Beach, including the Tiwi Islands, Wadeye and Darwin. Also Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island.. Cancelled zones: None. Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am ACST: Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour. Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.4 degrees South, 127.8 degrees East , 330 kilometres west of Darwin and 245 kilometres north northeast of Kalumburu . Movement: slow moving . Tropical low 23U is currently located over the Timor Sea and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone tonight or during Saturday morning. The system is likely to be slow-moving over the next two days. There is some uncertainty about the movement of 23U in the longer term. There remains the possibly of a track moving to the east over the Top End though the track to the west southwest towards Western Australia is becoming more likely. Hazards: GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the WA/NT border to Mitchell Plateau from tonight. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in western parts of the Tiwi Islands tonight, possibly extending between Point Stuart and Dundee Beach including Darwin on Saturday morning. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may also develop on Saturday between Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island HEAVY RAINFALL may develop over the Tiwi Islands and western parts of the Daly District during this afternoon and continue Saturday as the system intensifies. HEAVY RAINFALL is also expected to develop about northern parts of the Kimberley during Saturday and continue into the weekend and early next week, as the system approaches the coast.   |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 25, 2022 3:01:53 GMT -5
Latest track map projection.  |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 25, 2022 23:44:26 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 26, 2022 0:12:28 GMT -5
From Pilko's Chat On Weather, Darwin.... "Anika can certainly be seen better now via the Darwin and Wyndham radars. Still not in a hurry to move but it is likely to start a general south trend later tonight. It’s been a fun few days but she has things to do in WA I guess 🤔😝 Meanwhile our weather has eased up from this morning’s deluge. Still a few showers sweeping in from the NW and they look like they will be the last of the showers for an hour or two, before further bands begin to develop offshore later today. We will still see plenty of showers in coming days, although the focus of the activity will be about the Cyclone. At one stage during the week it looked as tho we would miss everything so I think we ended up doing ok. Have a great arvo troops. 😉"   |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 26, 2022 3:38:59 GMT -5
4 consecutive days below 30c has dragged our monthly mean max to within 0.2c of average for the month. Min temps running -0.4c below average. Rainfall at the Airport still below average, but with this active ( if poor ) monsoonal burst we might just exceed the mean monthly rainfall.  |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 26, 2022 15:45:43 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 26, 2022 21:42:47 GMT -5
Pilko's Report this morning : "Meanwhile in Darwin .. Good morning troops. Well our fun and games has headed SW and it’s West Australia’s turn now with TC Anika. Our weather is now going to ease up in coming days as the Cyclone drags the monsoon away with it, although having said that the monsoon trough continues to straddle the NW Top End and stretches back into the Arafura Sea, east towards the Coral Sea. Generally speaking if the monsoon trough is in your vicinity you are well positioned to get plenty of action and BoM are predicting a pretty wet day with up to 80mm in the city. Seeing the sun this morning for the first time in three days is quite a pleasant feeling but I can hear distant thunder from a cell south of the harbour so the weather certainly hasn’t taken a hike just yet. Tropical Cyclones tend to absorb a lot of the instability and severe weather and in this case the Monsoon has been feeding into Anika for a day or two now. As it weakens today over land the monsoon will likely tend to spread its wings a little and that should put the NW Top End and west coast into a better position to extract some moisture from it. I think you will find that today will be windier than it has been as well thanks to us now being exposed to the freshening Monsoonal winds. Just another great day to chill out with a hot cuppa this morning and a beer this arvo. Well that’s my idea anyhow 🤔 Have a great day everyone and stay safe if you are in any of todays weather hotspots, namely SE QLD and NE NSW. Chat soon 👍" As of 11.45am, I'm in bright sunshine, and the temp has reached +31c, the first 30c temps in 5 days. Myself, I highly doubt heavy rainfall today in the City, but as Pilko says, anywhere on the north coast under the monsoon trough is in with a good chance of some activity. With less than 24 hours of the reporting month left ( in Australia the daily reports for rainfall are for the 24 hour period 9.00am-9.00am and the figure goes into the books on the date it is measured. So any rain today and overnight will be entered as the last day of the month, the 28th. ), my monthly total at Leanyer in the Northern Suburbs of Darwin is 422.1mm, so slightly above the monthly mean of 380mm. That's certainly a 'pass' mark for the month. I think the BOM might have overcooked today's forecast.    Same when drawing cyclone track maps...  |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 27, 2022 15:45:23 GMT -5
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 27, 2022 17:55:29 GMT -5
Incoming....although I might be just a little to far north ( At Leanyer ) for a downpour.   |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 27, 2022 19:35:30 GMT -5
February is over as far as rainfall recordings are concerned.
My posts on Pilko's :
"I'm satisfied with my Feb total......started off well early in the month with 185.3mm in the first 8 days before the monsoon break period set in with 7 of the next 8 days being rainless and even a +35c temp being recorded ( rare in Feb ).
Then the easterly Gulf Line pattern set in with consistent storms blowing in from Arnhemland.
And of course the re-forming of the weak monsoon trough over the west north west coast delivered 12 consecutive wet days in Leanyer Heights 17th-28th. This spell gave me 231.3mm of steady soaking in type rain.
430.6mm for the month.
The mean rainfall at Leanyer AWS is 381.4mm, 2022 it recorded 424.8mm.
So a definite 'pass' mark for Feb 2022.
Not so much at the Airport...a 'fail' actually with only 340.6mm ( mean is 369.3mm )".
This 'Wet' doesn't feel like a good 'un....been patchy, espcially east of the Adelaide River it seems.
But ( from a Leanyer Heights viewpoint ), to have all 3 of the main wet season months ( Dec-Feb ) above average is pretty bloody good !👍
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Post by Steelernation on Feb 27, 2022 21:18:01 GMT -5
February is over as far as rainfall recordings are concerned. My posts on Pilko's : "I'm satisfied with my Feb total......started off well early in the month with 185.3mm in the first 8 days before the monsoon break period set in with 7 of the next 8 days being rainless and even a +35c temp being recorded ( rare in Feb ). Then the easterly Gulf Line pattern set in with consistent storms blowing in from Arnhemland. And of course the re-forming of the weak monsoon trough over the west north west coast delivered 12 consecutive wet days in Leanyer Heights 17th-28th. This spell gave me 231.3mm of steady soaking in type rain. 430.6mm for the month. The mean rainfall at Leanyer AWS is 381.4mm, 2022 it recorded 424.8mm. So a definite 'pass' mark for Feb 2022. Not so much at the Airport...a 'fail' actually with only 340.6mm ( mean is 369.3mm )". This 'Wet' doesn't feel like a good 'un....been patchy, espcially east of the Adelaide River it seems. But ( from a Leanyer Heights viewpoint ), to have all 3 of the main wet season months ( Dec-Feb ) above average is pretty bloody good !👍 What qualifies as a pass mark? |
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Post by greysrigging on Feb 28, 2022 2:34:39 GMT -5
February is over as far as rainfall recordings are concerned. My posts on Pilko's : "I'm satisfied with my Feb total......started off well early in the month with 185.3mm in the first 8 days before the monsoon break period set in with 7 of the next 8 days being rainless and even a +35c temp being recorded ( rare in Feb ). Then the easterly Gulf Line pattern set in with consistent storms blowing in from Arnhemland. And of course the re-forming of the weak monsoon trough over the west north west coast delivered 12 consecutive wet days in Leanyer Heights 17th-28th. This spell gave me 231.3mm of steady soaking in type rain. 430.6mm for the month. The mean rainfall at Leanyer AWS is 381.4mm, 2022 it recorded 424.8mm. So a definite 'pass' mark for Feb 2022. Not so much at the Airport...a 'fail' actually with only 340.6mm ( mean is 369.3mm )". This 'Wet' doesn't feel like a good 'un....been patchy, espcially east of the Adelaide River it seems. But ( from a Leanyer Heights viewpoint ), to have all 3 of the main wet season months ( Dec-Feb ) above average is pretty bloody good !👍 What qualifies as a pass mark? To be honest, I'm probably rating February somewhat harshly at the Airport. It's 4.9klm as the crow flies from my place, but I am closer to the coast which does better ( usually ) during north west monsoon flows. For people living over that side of town, they are likely a bit disappointed with their total Feb rainfall, even though it's only slightly below the long term mean average ( 80 years ). I guess an inch and a bit below norm nearly qualifies as a low end pass mark.....and the kind of rain ( ie no flooding downpours, just good steady soaking rain ) is actually benificial to the bush and suburban gardens. So lets call it a 'pass' ( just )....lol. Ok, changed my ratings....just looked at the City and other suburban sites...the northern suburbs have all exceeded their monthly means, all the other sites, particularly close to the City are well below the monthly mean. its a 'pass' out my way and a slight 'fail' up in the City and inner suburbs. |
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