Top End Wet Season 2021-2022

So I've had 0.7mm rain in the first 10 days of March and its been brutally hot and humid with some filthy DP's as well.
Today has equalled the March highest daily max temp of 36c , recorded back in 1942.

It's actually too hot for the bare feet on the concrete driveway late this arvo....35.1c at 5.00pm and the DP's has risen as well with a mild sea breeze, back up to 24.7c.

There are a coupla storms out to the east of Darwin in Kakadu National Park, and its likely these will travel west over the Daly River District to the south west of Darwin.

Looking better at 4.45pm....storms brewing, but to the south of the City.

Monsoon Break Continues But Clouds Are On The Horizon
( source: Weatherzone )


Another relatively settled week is on the cards for parts of northern Australia, but there are signs that heavy rain and thunderstorms could return in the second half of March.
There has been a temporary easing of heavy monsoonal rainfall in northern Australia over the past week as the monsoon trough dissipated in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Anika.
While showers and storms have still moved over parts of Northern Australia each day last week, widespread rainfall totals have not been observed across a broad area of the tropics.
This is set to continue over the coming week week as the monsoon trough remains well to the north of Australia. The map below shows one model's weekly rainfall forecast leading up to Thursday, March 17 across northern Australia.



While the NT and WA are both expecting another quiet weather week, a low-pressure trough sitting over QLD is likely to trigger heavier rainfall over the state's northern tropics, including the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands. Totals of 100-200 mm are forecast for the region over the coming week as the trough feeds high humidity air into the region.
Looking ahead, the tropics may re-awaken durig the second half of March, as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moves to the north of Australia.

Some models are suggesting that the MJO will strengthen as it moves east across the Indian Ocean towards Australian longitudes. If this occurs, heavy rainfall, thunderstorm and cyclone risk will increase during the second half of March across northern Australia.

In response to this MJO pulse, there are signs that a tropical cyclone could develop in Australia's Western Region, most likely to the south of the Cocos Islands, next week. At this stage the system looks like it will stay well to the west of the Australian mainland.

3mm of rain overnight and thunder and lightning in the distance from a small cell that, whilst cooling down the max temp from 33c to 28c, has produced sfa rain.
The gardens and verges/nature strips are dying off from lack of natural water atm ( about 6 weeks earlier than normal ) and I have commenced my 'dry season' watering regime. The longer term forecast is encouraging, however.... we should be back to some regular falls in the last week of March/early April.



The far North Queensland and eastern Top End heatwave has broken with the increased storm activity and cloud cover.


From local guru Pilko earlier today
" Good morning trendsetters..
And yes it’s still morning and no I didn’t just get out of bed.
I had a late night crying into my beer as I watched that lovely storm front roll in from the east, only to see it disintegrate as it reached suburbia. 🤦‍♂️
Of course certain areas south of us received a decent storm and even Katherine was hit hard by a sparky beast late yesterday.
44mm at Adelaide River and 29mm at Cooinda we’re two of the more impressive falls, so despite the speed these storms are travelling at they can certainly dump some heavy rain.
Today looks close to a carbon copy with hot humid conditions and a fair mass of showers and storms developing about the eastern and central Top End. Isolated arvo showers and storms about the western half later this arvo before the arrival sometime this evening or tonight of the band of showers and storms that had developed earlier thru central parts.
These storms will be gusty and damaging winds are more than likely if these storms maintain their structure. After a few close calls, the law of averages tells me that we are due for a fairly wild squall line and that is very possible later tonight, but again as we have seen in previous days it may well fizzle out but I would be prepared just in case.
The Arafura Sea is slowly picking up activity wise with a very weak low somewhere NE of Gove.
It is anticipated that this low will track steadily west across the north of the Top End before continuing its journey into the Timor Sea.
Most but not all models have it staying well clear of the Top End coast but if it tracks more SW than West, we will see an increase in activity about the north coast and adjacent inland areas.
Note tho that NO cyclonic development is expected from this system whilst it is within NT waters, however it is expected to slowly strengthen as it moves West.
This should ensure the Top Ends weather continues as it’s been doing over the last 48 hours with east to west movement of showers and gusty storms, but the NE Arnhem Land will do particularly well with this set up thanks to a very moist and unstable easterly airstream.
So hopefully today troops we will see something a bit more productive than the last couple of soul destroying episodes. 🤨
Have a great day 🙂
Thanks to our good buddies OCC for the satelite pic and BoM for todays rain chart.

This is why we look deeper than the 64klm radar from Darwin.
64klm, 128kl, 256klm, 512klm

About friggen time !... the first decent dounpour this month !

^^Usually tapers off by mid April, although the latest Cyclone to impact the North Coast was 28th April in 1996.
April mean is 100mm at my place.

Was a cracker of a storm last night, a good old fashioned 'knock 'em down'. 26mm, so a genuine inch of rain in about half an hour.
Sunset just before the line moved through


Some lightning shots by local storm chasers

Building nicely for some action tonight !

A real Top End 'knock 'em down' incoming...


Having said that, these things can and often do dissapate before reaching the west coast....