Spring 2022 NH / Fall 2022 SH Discussion Thread

This has got to be a joke...Let's hope we miss this "rain bomb" as we did a few days ago! These weather conditions is terrible for my plants in the garden. Also had enough of this soggy soil and all the mess in the home! 



A low pressure system should develop and will affect east coast NSW from tomorrow. This system will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms, affecting already flooded areas. There is a moderate-to-high chance for thunderstorms and rainfall each day from Sunday 6th to Tuesday 8th, concentrated over eastern NSW.

Tuesday 8th will be the day to watch for widespread rainfall, with the possibility of accumulated precipitation reaching more than 200mm over 24 hours, most likely in the Sydney area. This will exacerbate the flooding problems caused by previous rainfall last week.

In addition to rain, this low should also generate damaging winds and large surf over the NSW coast. Southwesterly winds between 60-100km/h will affect the NSW coast, most likely from the morning of Tuesday 8th, to the evening of Wednesday 9th.

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/heavy-rain-returning-to-sydney-and-surrounds-in-coming-days-/536483

March 5 was seasonably cool with mostly cloudy anticyclonic gloom and a light SE flow, with a high/low of 45/31. Sunday and Monday will both make runs for the first 70s of the year here. NWS has upper 60s forecast both days but these setups with a strong west flow this time of year tend to over perform if we can get enough sunshine.

Daily record of 64F is almost certain to fall tomorrow

Enhanced severe threat for northern AR and southeast MO. Tornado watch was issued with potential for a few strong tornadoes. Iowa was hit by a tornado that caused 7 fatalities yesterday.

Severe storms probably staying to my north. 

Had 0.05” of morning rain as a warm front came thru, with some afternoon sun. Another day with a pretty high diurnal for here, with a high/low of 68/39. Mild to warm again tomorrow with showers and maybe an afternoon thunderstorm.

No Sheet! Record Min Temps In North Queensland
( source: Weatherzone )



Sleep would have been hard to come by in large parts of the northern Qld coast in recent nights, with numerous record or near-record high minimums for March just recorded.

Mackay registered its hottest March night on record, with a low of 28.2°C. This was also the hottest night in any month for 30 years since a similar of 28.2°C reading in February 13, 1992.

Townsville also established a new record overnight high minimum for March, with a low of 28.9°C just before dawn. The old record was 27.9°C.

Meanwhile the town of Ayr, just south of Townsville, had its highest overnight min for 26 years with 28.2°C. This was also a record for March, with 71 years of records.

The nearby coastal hamlet of Alva Beach registered a new record for any month, with a low of 29.1°C overnight.

SO WHY THE MAXED-OUT MINS?
We've written what seems like countless stories in recent weeks about the rain in southeast Queensland, and further south again along the NSW coast.

While those areas are a long way away from north Queensland, the weather systems there have influenced these extremely high overnight temps.

In a nutshell, that same upper low pressure trough over northern NSW that is driving moisture-laden air onshore is also pushing hot air from central Australia to north Queensland.

Air flows clockwise around a low, and if you look at the latest synoptic chart, you can clearly see warm air heading being directed towards north Queensland from the interior of the state.



A second factor at play is that winds have been strong enough overnight that the pockets of cool air that typically form near the ground overnight have been mixed into the atmosphere. In short, the normal nocturnal cooling effect has been negated.

Up Townsville way, there's another factor at play, and that's sea surface temperatures, which are currently well above average as you can see on the BoM's latest sea surface anomaly temperature chart.



Sea surface temps around Townsville are about 2.5 degrees above average, and that's also a large part of the reason for these super-warm nights.

Interestingly, tropical cyclones tend to drag up cooler water from the depths of the ocean, and the lack of tropical cyclones in Coral Sea waters in recent weeks is one likely reason for the warmer sea surface temps.

So while nights have been extremely uncomfortable this week, we're pretty sure north Queenslanders would take sweaty sheets over the threat of a cyclone.

An insight into the phenomenal rainfall totals on the East Coast of Australia

"Chatting with my Mum in Camden, NSW and she has been telling me all about how wet it is down there....and I'm like, "uh huh, yep, yeah..." and thinking, "southerners really don't know what heavy rain is..."
So, a quick look at Camden's first 7 days of March total...
JFC ! unbloodybelievable ! Fair dinkum that figure is more than Darwin's mean March rainfall, and only 10mm shy of the Camden March record ! And there seems to be another couple of days of heavy rain to come.. I've screenshotted the respective figures from Camden Airport and Darwin Airport. Its all arse about - except for the Station names on the shots, in a normal season you could swap these figures and they would be completely believable 'eh ?"

Camden Airport, NSW ( about 70klm south west of Sydney CBD ) first 7 days of March.



Darwin Airport

Extremely dry altitude air these days. For exemple a rh as low as 3% this morning at the Säntis (-7°C/Dp of -46°C):
www.infoclimat.fr/observations-meteo/temps-reel/saentis/06680.html

Sydney's wettest start to a year on record as flooding worsens over eastern NSW



Thick clouds, relentless rain and flooding are plaguing eastern NSW this morning, with Sydney now having its wettest start to a year on record.
The composite satellite and radar animation below shows bands of rain lashing the central and southern coast and ranges of NSW on Tuesday morning.



The clouds and rain in the animation above can be seen circulating around a well-defined upper-level low positioned above the state’s Mid North Coast. To the south of this low, moisture-laden onshore winds are driving rain and thunderstorms into central and southern parts of NSW.

Widespread falls of 50 to 150 mm have been recorded between Port Macquarie and Green Cape during the last 24 hours, across an area covering about 700 km of the NSW coast and adjacent ranges. Isolated totals have been even higher in some areas, even exceeding 230 mm in the Illawarra.

The state’s heaviest rain in the 24 bours to 9am on Tuesday was at Mittagong, which received 232mm. This is more than two months' worth of rain for Mittagong at this time of year.

Further north, Sydney’s Observatory Hill weather station copped 95.4 mm of rain during the 24 hours to 9am on Tuesday. This brings the city’s running annual total for 2022 up to 821.6mm, which is Sydney’s wettest start to a year on record, beating 782.8mm to the same date in 1956. Rainfall data at Sydney Observatory Hill dates back to 1858.


Prior to this last 24 hours, Sydney’s running annual total for 2022 (726.2mm) was sitting in third place behind 1956 (782.8mm) and 1990 (753.8mm).
The graph below shows just how abnormal Sydney's year-to-date rainall has been in 2022.



Floods worsen as heavy rain continues

The heavy rain that has fallen in eastern NSW over the last 24 hours is exacerbating flooding across numerous catchments. Unfortunately, more heavy rain will fall throughout Tuesday as a surface-based low pressure system deepens near the NSW coast and tracks south.

The map below shows how much rain Australia’s high-resolution ACCESS-C forecast model is predicting on Tuesday.



Accumulated falls of around 50-150 mm are possible over parts of the coast and ranges between the Hunter and South Coast on Tuesday, with isolated falls in excess of 200 mm. Some of this heavy rain could fall over a short period of time, with 6-hourly rain rates possible exceeding 100 mm in some places.

Minor to Major flooding is already occurring across a broad area of eastern NSW and a flood watch has been issued for all NSW coastal rivers from the Mid North Coast to the South Coast.

Major flooding continues in western Sydney as water spilling from Warragamba Dam combines with heavy rain falling locally.



On Tuesday morning, the Nepean River at Menangle Bridge was already experiencing major flooding that exceeded the levels seen there in March 2021. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, major flooding could also surpass March 2021 river levels in the Hawkesbury River at Windsor, Lower Portland and Wisemans Ferry, either on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Very heavy rain over an already sodden Georges River Catchment also caused moderate to major flooding at Liverpool and Milperra in Sydney’s southwest on Tuesday morning. Tens of thousands of residents were evacuated on Monday ahead of this flood, before the Georges River at Liverpool Bridge peaked at around 4.4 metres early Tuesday morning.



In addition to more heavy rain and flooding, eastern NSW will also be battered by damaging winds and damaging surf over the next couple of days as the low pressure system strengthens offshore.
Check the latest severe weather warnings, flood warnings and flood watches here for the most up-to-date information on this evolving weather event.

First precipitation here since 25 February, around 1mm. Sadly it fell down as snow.

Nights are supposed to go well below freezing, so this snowpack will melt painfully slow.