Spring 2022 NH / Fall 2022 SH Discussion Thread

It's autumn in Australia, but you wouldn't think so in vast areas of far North Queensland and the eastern Northern Territory.

Severe Weather Continues In NSW As East Coast Low Looms
( source: Weatherzone )


A deepening Tasman Sea low-pressure system is set to bring a burst of dangerous weather to parts of eastern NSW as it moves towards the coast in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Rainfall has already begun to increase across parts of central eastern NSW on Wednesday morning. While Sydney Observatory Hill only received 4.6mm between 12am and 9am on Tuesday, Whiteman Ridge in the Central Coast, Camden in Sydney and Foxground in Illawarra all had around 20-30mm of rain in one hour between 8am and 9am.
The map below shows the low-pressure system sitting off the northern coast of NSW on Wednesday morning, embedded within a low pressure trough that extends towards central NSW. The low pressure system is expected to drift southwest towards the central NSW coastline on Wednesday into Thursday.



As the low approaches the coast and deepens, rain, wind, and surf are all expected to intensify. This has prompted severe weather warnings for a broad stretch of the coast and ranges from about Eden up to Newcastle, with damaging surf and abnormally high tides also likely to extend up into the lower Mid North Coast.

A flood watch has also been issued for the Greater Sydney, Mid North Coast, Central Coast, Illawarra, South Coast and Queanbeyan areas in response to this system.
The map below shows how much rain is being predicted by three different forecast models on Wednesday and Thursday combined. While the general pattern of rainfall is similar between these models, there is disagreement in where the heaviest rain will fall. This is due to the models having trouble predicting exactly where the low pressure system will move in the next 48 hours.



On Wednesday, rain and blustery winds will persist along the NSW coast and ranges from the Mid North Coast down to the South Coast, including Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong. Heavier falls and potentially damaging winds could develop from the afternoon into the evening as the low pressure system moves closer to the coast. There could also be localised periods of intense rainfall if thunderstorms develop within this moist onshore flow.

Most models suggest that the low pressure system will approach and move over the central NSW coast on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This would cause wind, rain and wave heights to increase further and may see six-hourly rainfall rates reaching around 50 to 100 mm, possibly even heavier in thunderstorms. However, there is considerable uncertainty around Thursday morning’s forecast rainfall, which is shown in the image below.



Despite the uncertainty that remains around this East Coast Low, anyone living between the lower Mid North Coast and the South Coast in NSW, including Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, should closely monitor the forecasts and warnings over the next few days.

The upcoming forecast looks warm this week and cooler next week.

68/33 both yesterday and today—warm start to March.

Won’t last though with below normal temps returning this weekend. If none of the next two days hit 70, could be a while before it happens.

It is very warm and dry today, and today is the warmest day of the year so far. Even with the ice we got last week, we're still in extreme drought. We may get some rain on Sunday, but the rest of the forecast period looks dry.

Autumn started off with high pressure migration allowing for some genuinely autumnal drizzly periods on the morning of the 2nd.

Highs/Lows so far:
1st: 26.6/21.6
2nd: 23.6/16.0
3rd: 25.2/10.4

High pressure is looking to re-assert its dominance over the Great Australian Bight and will sit there for a while. Bringing really warm temperatures back to Perth.

Long range forecasts have maximums in the mid 30s until the 12th (ECMWF) or 11th (GFS) before temperatures return to the high 20s. Looks like this March should be a bit above average but will wait and see how the 2nd half turns out.


I'm actually predicting a big drop this Autumn, like an autumn of two halves. For March and some of April to be above average and stable followed by the sudden and dramatic drop (maybe from a series of strong cold fronts) into a wet, cool and cloudy end of April and May. Maybe 120mm+ in May for example.

Below-average temperatures will be the theme for the first half of March.

Sunny, but cold with a northerly wind. Max 2C in Riga this Friday. Good to watch sky, New Moon after the sunset:

Once again, the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. That's climatocracy for ya.


I get to enjoy 12/27C fake warm days ad nauseum. Fake warm being there is scattered stratocrapulus and still only 22C at midday. It really is a running gag at this point. Roll on winter. Fuck SE Failstralia.