The Northern Australian Dry Season 2022

Some drier, warmer air in the next 7 days forecast. 35c max temps in the 3rd week of May are uncommon, to say the least !

Another nice dry season day, despite the dp's being slightly elevated today. Maxed out at 33.5c at 1.30pm.

A couple of small cells passing to our north. Another warm night

Another nice dry season day, a bit above average max temp at 34c, dp's in the teens again, so quite comefortable outdoors.

Some curious modelling for the Darwin region ( indeed the whole north western part of the Continent ) indicating a pretty big good old fashioned north west cloudband inpacting us around the second week in June. Of added interest is this coinciding with a weak signal from the MJO ( Madden Julian Oscillation ) which certainly raises the chances of some increased June cloud and humidity. Of course, this is still a fair way out, and models flip flop around over 2 weeks away, but it has got the tongues wagging amongst the local weather enthusiast community.


From local guru ( and BOM employee Cameron
"Take these long range models with a grain of salt... since anything past the 7 day mark can often change significantly.
But this is the long range CFS model projection for June. It shows a deep influx of moisture from the northwest during the first two weeks of June before a real solid dry out from mid month.
Be interesting to see how it plays out!
"Interestingly there even looks like a faint influence from the MJO arriving around the start of week 2 in June as well?"


"Long range Access doesn't seem to want a bar of it at the moment, so it will be interesting to see how it all blends together."


My replies on the thread....
"Ahhhh, June rainfall in Darwin.....dare we dream of 2004 ( 50.6mm ) or 1973 ( 41.4mm ).
Generally the dry season north west cloudbands are a little too far south and west of the Darwin region, but yep, can happen.
Last June the Airport had 5.2mm, the wettest June since 2004 and in the 95% ile of June rainfall.
Stats say, "dont hold your breath waiting for June rain".
"It does look good....but I've had 40 years of June disappointment ( and horrible garden water bills...lol ), so a pessimist.
"The two events coinciding does raise the chances somewhat.... in 2004 the wet days commenced on May 26th and went right through until 3rd June for a total of 75.4mm.

The coolest, dryest day of the 'dry season' so far...look at those dews !

As of the 28th of May, the Darwin Airport is running at 33.7c av for May max temps. This is a record since 1941. With 3 days to go in the month, we have a slight cool down forecast and the record might or might not stand. The previous May record is 33.5c in 2016, and if the forecast temps are reached, 2022 might equal 2016.

Not too dry seasony out to our north...

Dry Season ? What dry season....lol ?
Severe weather warnings on the Kimberley coast.