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Post by ๐๐ฟMรถrรถn๐๐ฟ on Oct 3, 2023 19:42:16 GMT -5
3:30am temps the last few days: Oct 1: 21.9c Oct 2: 4.6c Oct 3: 28.2c The month has started off with super bipolar nights. Quite the variation. Is it noticeable at all? At least the weather is interesting some of the time there. |
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Post by cawfeefan on Oct 4, 2023 2:54:20 GMT -5
3:30am temps the last few days: Oct 1: 21.9c Oct 2: 4.6c Oct 3: 28.2c The month has started off with super bipolar nights. Quite the variation. Is it noticeable at all? At least the weather is interesting some of the time there. I noticed the cold night on Oct 2 (which bottomed out at 3.1c) because I woke up shivering with only a light blanket. Since we were in the middle of a warm spell, I switched to a lighter cover only for a brief cool change to drop temperatures lol. I didn't notice anything on the other nights and slept soundly. |
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Post by MET on Oct 4, 2023 12:02:32 GMT -5
Some ridiculous with ass-burgers cold spell coming, nice early cold spell 5ยฐC highs coming.  |
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Post by MET on Oct 4, 2023 13:40:28 GMT -5
Now, this is exciting. We see not only 4ยฐC highs, but big snow arriving at my location soon. Best start to a proper nice long cold winter? Could be.  |
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Post by aabc123 on Oct 4, 2023 14:38:57 GMT -5
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Post by aabc123 on Oct 5, 2023 12:36:06 GMT -5
5/10 Moderate/heavy rain in many places.  In a few days, my nearest station has already received 41 mm of rainfall which is 65% of the normal for the whole month. Today was also the coldest day of this autumn, the high was only 11.8c. True, the low was 9.3c, so the diurnal range was very small. |
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Post by greysrigging on Oct 6, 2023 3:15:00 GMT -5
Melbourne's Coldest October Spell In A Decade? ( source: Weatherzone )  After its driest September on record with average maximum temps almost three degrees above average, Melbourne is into its third day of a cold October outbreak, and that wintry feeling is not going anywhere for a few days yet. In fact, Melbourne could be looking at its coldest six-day run of October maximum temperatures for at least a decade, and possibly its coldest October week in two decades. Here are Melbourne's recorded or forecast max temps from this Wednesday to next Tuesday. Wed Oct 4 โ 13.5ยฐC Thurs Oct 5 โ 16.5ยฐC Fri Oct 6 โ 15ยฐC (forecast) Sat Oct 7 โ 15ยฐC (forecast) Sun Oct 8 โ 17ยฐC (forecast) Mon Oct 9 โ 16ยฐC (forecast) Tues Oct 10 โ 18ยฐC (forecast) If Melbourne stays colder than 17 degrees until the end of Monday, then it'll be the first time since 2013 that the city has gone six straight October days without exceeding that mark. If Tuesday falls a degree short of the predicted top of 18ยฐC, then it'll be Melbourne's coldest October week (as in any seven-day run, not just Mon to Sun) in two decades. Why the spring chill? Wednesdayโs cold front obviously opened the door for this spell of unseasonably cool weather. Sometimes the effects of a cold front only last a day or two in southern Victoria, as winds swing back to the west or northwest. Not this time. This Friday nightโs synoptic chart shows why.  That high pressure system centred over the Great Australian Bight is like your mate who crashed on the couch on grand final night and is still sleeping there. The high is not expected to track east over the Tasman Sea until next Wednesday, which means a cool southwesterly or southerly airstream will continue to be funnelled Melbourneโs way. Winds wonโt be strong, so nights will be cool as well. This cool spell and the 32.6 mm of rain it has brought is welcome relief for Melburnians after the city's driest September on record with just 10.8 mm of rain As mentioned at the top, September was also very warm. Melbourne's average maximum of 20.1ยฐC was 2.8ยฐC above the long-term average Elsewhere in Victoria, the flood threat continues after extremely heavy midweek rain in some areas, while it is easing in East Gippsland. Please check our warnings page or our app for more info. |
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Post by Beercules on Oct 6, 2023 19:44:36 GMT -5
first half of cocktober is looking to have colder avg temps than September what a difference a month takes. all it takes is one severe polar assault, then youre fucked for weeks as always in SE Australia, anything good has to be repayed with hefty interest, mother nature raising the interest rates faster than the reserve bank ofcourse, the rates are lower the further north and Hay Gay - Shitney/penroid-bound you are bight highs are the hitler of the meteorological world  ๐ |
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Post by srfoskey on Oct 6, 2023 22:43:19 GMT -5
It's down to 55ยฐF (13ยฐC) here before midnight: already the coldest temperature this fall. The forecast low is 41ยฐF (5ยฐC), it will be interesting to see if we drop that far. If so, it will be the coldest low since April.
Frost is even possible in the northern part of the state!
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Post by ral31 on Oct 7, 2023 8:55:31 GMT -5
Worst drought conditions I can recall in my area. Highest level of drought (exceptional category) across much of LA and parts of MS and TX.  |
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Post by ral31 on Oct 7, 2023 9:01:19 GMT -5
Hopefully El Nino like pattern gets started soon. Looking like wetter conditions could come later this month. Also, I think we are done with record-breaking warmth.  |
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Post by Benfxmth on Oct 7, 2023 9:48:26 GMT -5
Hopefully El Nino like pattern gets started soon. Looking like wetter conditions could come later this month. Also, I think we are done with record-breaking warmth. [cut] Yeah, while rather uncertain (especially temps), there are some indications that week 3-4 will see a wetter pattern for the South. I'm personally rooting for positive anomolies with temps up here, though. Forecast discussion for week 3-4
Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Oct 06 2023
Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Oct 21 2023-Fri Nov 03 2023
The Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are for the period of October 21 - November 3, 2023. Unfortunately, forecast confidence for this period is relatively low. Subseasonal outlooks during Autumn are notoriously unpredictable, as wave patterns in the Northern Hemisphere quickly and chaotically evolve into the hemispheric wavenumber 3 pattern commonly found during winter. In fact, shorter-lead outlooks, such as Week 2, often lose skill this time of year.
Despite these predictability limits, we do have several physical climate drivers that are ongoing that have the potential to impact the eventual Week 3-4 outcome. Currently, in the tropics, Niรฑo 3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius, thus El Niรฑo may act as a background forcing. This forcing would support a weakness in heights across the Southern Tier of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been weakly active with some eastward propagation expected into the Western Hemisphere by mid-October. This evolution of the MJO would slightly favor below normal heights over CONUS with above normal heights over Canada.
Turning our attention to the extratropics, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently negative and is expected to approach -2 standard deviations over the next week before the ridging associated with it weakens over Greenland and retrogrades westward over North America. The Pacific North American (PNA) pattern is currently positive and is expected to approach +2 standard deviations over the next week before slightly weakening. Statistical guidance reveals that the forecasted NAO in Week 2 provides more predictability for CONUS this time of year than the PNA. Should the pattern evolve in a manner consistent with historical evolutions, it would produce troughing over CONUS, particularly over the East with ridging centered over the Aleutians.
The Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks take into consideration the El Niรฑo teleconnection, the aforementioned extratropical teleconnections, and a blend of dynamical model guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). There is relatively high divergence in solutions amongst the individual dynamical models. Thus, rather than washing out the forecast with an equal-weighted blend, the greatest weighting is given to the ECMWF and an experimental statistical multiple-linear regression (MLR) model that incorporates the dynamical model-forecasted negative NAO as a predictor (MLR-NAO). Dynamical models tend to underforecast the persistence of high latitude blocking, such as the negative NAO. Inclusion of the statistical MLR-NAO into the blend is opportunistic and helps obviate this concern by persisting high latitude blocking longer into Week 3-4 than the ECMWF does alone.
The 500-hPa height anomaly blend forecasts troughing over eastern CONUS and weak ridging over western CONUS. The weaker anomalies in the West lowers confidence in that region compared to the East. Over Alaska, ridging is forecast to be centered over the Aleutians. Consistent with this height pattern, enhanced below normal temperature probabilities are favored over the East, while enhanced above normal temperature probabilities are favored over the West and Alaska, particularly over the North Slope. With respect to precipitation, the trough axis over the East is anticipated to be inland, thus a baroclinic zone along the Gulf Coast should act to enhance cyclogenesis in the region which supports above normal precipitation. This is also consistent with the El Niรฑo teleconnection. Above normal precipitation is also forecast surrounding the Great Lakes, as occluding cyclones have the potential to be blocked by the retrograding ridge over Canada and produce Lake-enhanced precipitation. Underneath the ridging in the West, below normal precipitation is anticipated. Anomalous offshore flow in the Pacific Northwest elevates the chances for below normal precipitation in that region. Finally, over Alaska, with the ridge centered over the Aleutians, onshore flow tilts the forecast to above normal precipitation in northern Alaska, with below normal precipitation favored in the Aleutians, southern coast, and Panhandle.
Finally, for Hawaii, the multi-model ensemble from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) shows the highest probabilities of above normal temperatures in the northwestern islands, consistent with the observed SST gradient. Below normal precipitation is favored across all the islands.
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Post by Babu on Oct 8, 2023 4:06:46 GMT -5
We had a bunch of snowfall in the county on friday, although Umeรฅ just got rain. (satellite image from yesterday)  |
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Post by srfoskey on Oct 8, 2023 18:14:17 GMT -5
We got down to 43ยฐF (6ยฐC) on Saturday morning, one day before the long-term average first low that cold. Temperatures in the near term look slightly warmer than normal, before cool weather returns for next weekend. The upcoming several days look to be mostly dry unfortunately; I want more cloudy fall weather.
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Post by aabc123 on Oct 9, 2023 15:38:58 GMT -5
There was a strong storm over the weekend in Northern and Western Estonia and, of course, at sea. Max wind speed was 111.6 km h in Paldiski. 90,000 households were left without electricity for a shorter or longer time. Inland, the wind was also strong, but weaker than in coastal region, of course. The maximum speed at Vรตru was 64.8 km h. After the storm, the weather turned cold, early this morning the nearest station recorded -0.1c. Photo from the media.  |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2023 4:26:45 GMT -5
18mm (0.71") of rain at Bandung airport finally, recorded between 6-9 UTC (1pm-4pm local time) today
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Post by dunnowhattoputhere on Oct 10, 2023 14:33:58 GMT -5
Today was most likely our last 20C+ day until probably April next year. A high of 22.5C with hazy sunshine. Farewell summer 2023.
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Post by Beercules on Oct 11, 2023 3:18:41 GMT -5
News just in.... Cocktober mtd is 0.5C below avg, so the month is officially gay. And that is with a 38C day in the mix, so you can imagine how cold and cloudy the rest has been.
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Post by greysrigging on Oct 11, 2023 16:36:36 GMT -5
Some extreme diunals deep in the tropics of the WA Kimberleys. Yampi Sound ( Defence ) is an ADF Training facility about 140klm north of Derby.    This vid gives one an idea of the countryside in this remote part of Australia. |
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Post by greysrigging on Oct 11, 2023 23:04:51 GMT -5
Melbourne Nine Degrees Colder At Midday Than Midnight ( source: Weatherzone )  It has been a chilly, wet and stormy old morning in Melbourne, with classic four-seasons-in-a-day conditions. Temperatures plummeted dramatically as the working day got underway and a cold front moved through Victoria. At midnight last night, Melbourne was sitting on a very balmy 21.2ยฐC By midday Thursday, the temp was just 12ยฐC, having dipped closer to 11ยฐC a little earlier The cold front delivered a second good October soaking that will help keeps lawns and gardens looking green, with 1.2 mm up to 9 am and a further 7.8 mm between 9 am and noon. In fact, Melbourne's October rainfall is now close to exceeding the city's entire rainfall total for the previous three months, as the graph below (current to 9 am Thursday) shows.  Melbourneโs total rainfall for July, August, and September 2023 (the city's driest Sept on record) was 53.8 mm If you add Thursdayโs 7.8 mm until midday, Octoberโs rainfall is already edging the 50 mm mark Meanwhile the confluence of a warm and cold airmass made for drama in the skies, with a total of 233 lightning strikes recorded on Thursday morning as the front noisily rumbled through town. In the wake of the front, steady rain should give way to the typical pattern of occasional showers, becoming more frequent on Saturday evening into Sunday as another front clips southern Victoria. Temps will stay cool, with maximums remaining in the teens until at least next Tuesday. |
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