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Post by nei on Feb 17, 2018 9:40:22 GMT -5
it's a big ridge; these are warm midlevel temperatures, looks normal for late spring. Except for the about the same as Florida part  and here a few days when Asheville reaches 79°F.  So 14°C at about 5000 feet and 26°C at 2000 feet, suggests a very steep lapse rate 12°C/ 1 km. Usual max is 9.8°C. My chart shows above that is very rare [12°C/km is 36°F in the lapse rate plot] cdweather.boards.net/post/32292 |
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Post by ral31 on Feb 17, 2018 15:57:45 GMT -5
NOAA is showing an area of 5-7 inches of rain for the next week over Arkansas and bordering areas. Not sure what the severe risk will be like at this time.  |
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Post by Steelernation on Feb 17, 2018 17:33:14 GMT -5
NWS calling for 68 (20 C) on Tuesday for my town, and 67 (19 C) for Rochester. Should easily be a daily record.
All time record high for February is 73 (23 C). If it were sunny we might have a chance, but the forecast is calling for rain so probably not.
I’m gonna be so fucking pissed if this is a repeat of last February where 90% of the northeast hits 70 (21 C) and we don’t.
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Post by Giorbanguly on Feb 17, 2018 21:53:13 GMT -5
Daily records for both Tuesday and Wednesday might get broken, good chance they do actually. Daily records are 58F and 61F respectively, forecast has us at 65F and 68F. Quite a bit of snow out now, but tomorrow's sunshine and monday rains should take care of that
Want more good news? Next weekend is also supposed to be well above average! 50F+ predicted both days, and it might go up from here
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Post by Steelernation on Feb 17, 2018 23:24:20 GMT -5
Forecast highs Tuesday around the Rochester area:
Avon: 73
North Chili: 73
Victor: 73
Fairport: 72
Canandaigua: 72
Brockport: 72
Macedon: 72
Rochester: 71
Honeoye: 68
Webster: 67
Unfortunately were too far west so it’s Tuesday or bust for 70.
Poor Buffalo only supposed to get to 56.
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Post by Giorbanguly on Feb 17, 2018 23:38:37 GMT -5
Toronto is only supposed to get to 52F. Goodness. Poor Toronto
I lucked out, Binghamton has one of the best forecasts in all of Upstate NY. And only a couple of degrees F lower than NYC
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Post by Steelernation on Feb 17, 2018 23:49:31 GMT -5
Toronto is only supposed to get to 52F. Goodness. Poor Toronto I lucked out, Binghamton has one of the best forecasts in all of Upstate NY. And only a couple of degrees F lower than NYC What forecast are you using? NWS only showing 63. Highest I see is 74 in Dansville. Last February they hit 77! |
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Post by Giorbanguly on Feb 17, 2018 23:55:30 GMT -5
Toronto is only supposed to get to 52F. Goodness. Poor Toronto I lucked out, Binghamton has one of the best forecasts in all of Upstate NY. And only a couple of degrees F lower than NYC What forecast are you using? NWS only showing 63. Highest I see is 74 in Dansville. Last February they hit 77! Euro shows 69F for here on Wednesday The town of Binghamton probably hit 74F last February, the airport station itself hit 70F. Not uncommon on clear sunny days for the town to be 4-5F warmer than the elevated airport station Dansville and Geneseo are crazy, probably able to get more powerful heat waves because of their lower latitude |
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Post by Steelernation on Feb 18, 2018 0:00:09 GMT -5
Euro shows 69F for here on Wednesday The town of Binghamton probably hit 74F last February, the airport station itself hit 70F. Not uncommon on clear sunny days for the town to be 4-5F warmer than the elevated airport station Dansville and Geneseo are crazy, probably able to get more powerful heat waves because of their lower latitude Euro showing 68 and 66 for us. Nws saying 72 and 60. Guess the 69 the euro called for last week may not be so crazy after all... |
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Post by Giorbanguly on Feb 18, 2018 0:11:00 GMT -5
There is still some disagreeing between the models, but no matter which one you go far seems like it's going to be record-breaking
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Post by P London on Feb 18, 2018 4:44:57 GMT -5
Hurry up and arrive!  I'm not holding my breath... |
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Post by Babu on Feb 18, 2018 6:44:46 GMT -5
Is that a 1060hPa I'm seeing in Lapland??? Without cold temperature deviations??? What.
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Post by rozenn on Feb 18, 2018 6:55:29 GMT -5
If there's a 1060 hPa+ high centered over Lapland, ground temps will indeed be cold no matter what the 850 hPa temps are. It will all be radiational cold. Usually the center of high pressure systems are nowhere near the coldest at the 850 mb level.
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Post by P London on Feb 18, 2018 13:08:47 GMT -5
^^ I'm not too clued up on all the terminology. But I know one thing High over Scandinavia, cold uppers and Easterly winds means cold air!  There seems to be agreement that Western Europe will see a prolonged period of Easterly winds. I'm just hoping this happens. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2018 16:03:46 GMT -5
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Post by rozenn on Feb 18, 2018 16:22:10 GMT -5
Wow blue everywhere apart from the eastern Balkan, southern Ukraine/Russia and Iceland!
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Post by Steelernation on Feb 18, 2018 17:30:30 GMT -5
The NWS has lowered Tuesday’s forecast to 67 (19 C)  Fuck this bullshit. I think this is gonna be the exact same thing as last year: average early February, very warm late February where most of the northeast hits 70 (21 C) and we don’t, and then we get a below average March. Last year Albany, Buffalo, Syracuse, Binghamton, Ithaca, Burlington, Boston, etc. all hit 70 and we didn’t. I thought I’d be long gone the next time we got a chance for 70 in the winter, expect it could happen this year. Once again, it looks like we’ll get stuck at 67. If we don’t hit 70 and a bunch of the state does FUCK ME DEAD. Despite our averages getting warmer, we haven’t set a monthly record high since 1997. Most places in the northeast have set 2 in the last 3 years. If were gonna come this close, at leaf make it 64 (18 C) and have the forecasts be 64 all week. Don’t give me a fucking tease with a forecast of 72 that gets lowered the next day and an actual temp of 67-68 that’s so close but not fucking there. I won’t be so mad if nowhere but NYC and a few random spots hit 70 but if it turns into a repeat of last year, I’m going to be so fucking pissed. |
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Post by rpvan on Feb 18, 2018 22:20:21 GMT -5
5cm fell in Vancouver last night. Coldest night of the season tonight as temps will dip to around -8C. Pretty pathetic given we average nearly 2 days below -10C per year. Still, it's a nice contrast from the past few months which have been utterly horrific.
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Post by 🖕🏿Mörön🖕🏿 on Feb 18, 2018 22:27:08 GMT -5
5cm fell in Vancouver last night. Coldest night of the season tonight as temps will dip to around -8C. Pretty pathetic given we average nearly 2 days below -10C per year. Still, it's a nice contrast from the past few months which have been utterly horrific. It's been an unpleasant winter. Lots of 1C-7C rain. |
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Post by nei on Feb 18, 2018 23:14:30 GMT -5
we had 3-4 inches of snow last night but with sun and 40°F + a lot compacted and melted. Doesn't really look like it had snowed as it was enough the streets looked clean ( well big slush puddles in spots) and the trees were snow-free by the end of the day. Sounded like it rained. Went below by 8 pm, with patches of black ice on sidewalks.
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Fuck this bullshit. 