2018-2019 Winter Discussion(Northern Hemisphere)

hajajajajajaja no bro it will retrograde directly into Vancùckver. Wait and see...

nice we'll get a warm spell in a week?

NWS Boston maps posted a forecast map for 2 feet for northern Massachusetts

here's what the NWS New York says, which is in the uncertain zone more than further north. "Interior" here means north of NYC not deep further north. bolding the uncertainty and a few main points.


Saturday will be dry through the afternoon then warm advection
quickly takes shape with snow overspreading the region in the
evening. The air mass in place at the onset will be supportive of
all snow. Strong warm advection and an increasing southeasterly low
level jet should bring in warmer air aloft to bring a transition
zone. How quickly this occurs will be important along the coast for
the amount of snow accumulation.

This warm nose aloft will gradually spread inland to encompass the
entire area Sunday morning. Even the colder model solutions still
show this warming aloft due to the broad middle level low center
tracking initially to our west Saturday night and then over the
region Sunday morning. Precipitation should transition to plain rain
for much of NYC, Long Island, and southeast Connecticut late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. PTYPE for the rest of the area
may transition to sleet and/or freezing rain depending on the depth
of the low level cold below the warm nose. The colder solutions of
the ECMWF and NAM out through 12z Sunday show potential for a
quite deep cold layer below the warm nose, which would mean more
sleet rather than freezing rain. It is too early to say for
sure how this aspect will evolve, so for now will show a mixture
of sleet and freezing rain for the interior Sunday morning.
Once the low tracks east of the area, colder air rapidly rushes
back in from the north and west and will bring a gradual
transition back to snow as the precip ends.

A significant snow and sleet accumulation of 6 plus inches appears
likely across portions of the NW interior. The 00z ECMWF EPS
probability of 6 inches or more is around 80 percent across this
region. Amounts will decrease as one nears the coast with a few
inches possible, but this will ultimately be dependent on how
quickly the precipitation changes to a mix or rain. Significant
freezing rain accretion is also possible Sunday morning, especially
north and west of NYC. Please note that small changes in track will
have significant implications for the type of precipitation and
amounts.

While forecast amounts of snow, sleet, and freezing rain are of
lower confidence, there is higher confidence in a liquid equivalent
of 2 to 3 inches.

Temperatures rise into the upper 30s and low 40s along Long Island
and southeast Connecticut Sunday morning, but will rapidly drop back
below freezing in the afternoon and evening, any standing water
could quickly freeze, creating hazardous travel conditions even
where little wintry precipitation occurs.

Temperatures will continue to plummet through the overnight hours,
with lows Monday morning ranging from the single digits to near 10
degrees. Gusty northwest winds will result in wind chills around 5
to 15 degrees below zero. The lowest wind chills are most likely to
occur across the interior.

The arctic air remains in place on Monday as high pressure builds
into the region. Highs will only be in the teens with wind chills
staying 0 to 10 below. Temperatures should warm into to the 20s and
low 30s on Tuesday and then potentially above normal on Wednesday
ahead of the next system approaching the area.

You should move back to Massachusetts, they're about to get hammered.

Forecast for Monday now has a high of 9 (-13 C)! Sunday night should be the coldest, current forecast is 0 (-18 C).

Snow totals are pretty varied so far, currently we’re in the 12-18” zone for most forecasts.

850mb temps at -15C....wow, we haven't seen those kind of upper level temps since Nov 2010 at least. Possibly even December 2008.

It's sad considering that we used to see those kind of temps nearly every winter with an arctic blast in Jan....the last January to have those upper level temps was most likely back in 2004.

NAM... Oh my. If this verifies I'm going to get destroyed. I spot checked my location and it has me at 24"

NAM 24"
Euro 16-20"
Canadian 14"
GFS 8"

Yeah I'm gonna get crushed can't wait